Matt-ADX

Looks like the Blue wall is crumbling. Lead in polls down to 3.2. Yikes

https://imgur.com/a/mishS4D

kane

Midterms always come down to voter enthusiasm and turnout. The Democrats need young people to turn out and vote. If they do, they will take back the house. They are focusing on issues that they hope will fire up young voters. That said, it is still 6 months until the elections. A lot could happen between now and then that could help or hurt either party.

Unless the Mueller investigation finishes before then and it is good or bad for Trump one way or the other, I think this midterm will come down to Trump hate Vs. Trump love and who will get their base more excited and ready to vote.

Democrats under Obama in 2010 laughed off the Republicans as nothing but obstructionists and then they lost massive seats and control of the house.

Rochard

I think it's a bit too far out to be looking at stats. No one is really even campaigning yet.

Republicans will obviously campaign on the economy and the unemployment rates (just released today). Democrats will campaign on collusion, the investigation, Stormy Daniels, and the lack of progress in everything.

I am not an expert in politics but so I have no idea how the midterms will fall, but frankly nothing good has happened since he took office and there has been no accomplishments. Everything coming out of the White House is vile and evil. Every day. Just in the past twenty-four hours the man who loves to call women cunts is upset because a comedian used the word to describe his daughter, and he just blasted our allies with tariffs for no reason at all. Even worse was what Trump didn't do - with Roseanne Barr instead of criticizing her for racist comments, he instead questioned why ABC canceled her show.

It's highly entertaining.

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k0nr4d

I think looking at stats is senseless to begin with. It doesn't matter who likes who in a poll unless they actually go out and vote.

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Bladewire

True

A lot can change between now and then like:

Revolt from the tarrifs by blue state voters companies now targeted by Canada, China & Mexico

The seized recordings of Cohen & Trumps calls being released

The FBI indicts Cohen & Kushner

The Manafort trial begins

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dyna mo

it's remarkable how much you don't know but still yap about.

midterm campaigning started over 2 months ago.

Rochard

That's odd. I've only seen a handful of commercials on TV.

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Rochard

In theory, the people who answer such polls are the ones who would vote. Generally speaking they pretty close. Clearly that did not work in the last election.

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xClips Jim

He is in a dead heat race for biggest fool on this forum - the idiocy of Mrs. Bladewire is a tough act to follow, so Rochard's feat is impressive.

Trump moves the embassy for no reason at all (except, cough cough - campaign promise), he does exactly what he said he would do on trade deals for no reason at all (except, cough cough - campaign promise), etc etc.

Do you realize the level of intellectual dishonesty it takes to complain about doing things "for no reason at all" when the President CAMPAIGNED on and PROMISED to do these things if he won? It's the best reason there could possibly be - keeping your word.

It's going to be a red wave and they don't understand why.

dyna mo

I don't watch TV except for America's Got Talent which premiered Tuesday night so we turned the TV on. I was appalled at all the campaign commercials. they were the lion's share.

dyna mo

the POTUS has followed through on many of his campaign promises. I don't see how people can deny that fact.

kane

It's not that a lot of people are angry he followed through on some of his promises, it is that they hated what he was promising to begin with.

dyna mo

I have to respectfully disagree. I am one of the ones who very much dislikes his horrible promises.

Plenty of people like rochard who refuse to admit the fact that trump has accomplished many things.

to wit:

xClips Jim

And that is fair.

What is NOT fair (and borderline retarded) is whining that these things were done for "no reason at all" like Rochard constantly does.

It's a bizarre mental problem they have developed. Disagree with the positions but don't pretend they happen in a vacuum. They were laid out well before he was elected and he is following through. That is not "no reason at all."

Bladewire

The majority of Americans did not vote for Trump.

All of the midterm elections are majority win elections, only in the presidential election can someone be annointed into office by elites over the will of the people.

Trump has quickly chipped away at his base by lying about Mexico paying for the wall, lying about releasing his taxes, lying about relinquishing control of his businesses, lying about DACA immigrants being safe, lying about pulling our troops out of Irsq & Syria, the list goes on.

Blue wave!

xClips Jim

And yet, Trump gets more popular every day.

Thread bookmarked to celebrate that blue wave later this year.

kane

I don't see that. When I look at the polling numbers I see that he has held steady with an approval rating ranging from the upper 30's to the low 40's. It goes up a few points and down a few points.

He seems to be getting more popular within his party, but they were always going to vote for him anyway.

What do you see that makes you believe he is getting more and more popular?

xClips Jim

It's a good question.

I don't agree that Republicans were always going to vote for him anyway. Never Trump is still alive inside the Republican party - but they consistently lose ground, which is one indicator to me that Trump himself is becoming more popular. Republicans that were in a hurry to distance themselves from him before are not doing it now. They must assume he is gaining in popularity.

My opinion of his rising popularity may also be my personal Trump supporting timeline. I didn't care much about him one way or the other until mid last year and my actual support once I realized what was happening in the world began around Sept/Oct of last year so if you look at this graph:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

From where I enter the picture, it looks like he is only getting more popular as people get to know him and disregard the media bias. You have acknowledged previously that you've never seen media bias like this before - it's insane. And sure, he brings much it on himself with the trolling he enjoys so much- but this is certainly not journalism we've been witnessing.

kane

For me, ultimately, the midterms will tell the story. If the Republicans manage to hold onto the House and Senate, it will be proof that Trump is getting more and more popular and people are starting to buy into his particular form of madness. If they lose either or both, I feel that will be proof of what I believe which is that he is popular within his own party, but not outside it.

xClips Jim

Most Presidents are not popular outside of their own party. They are the ultimate "party" person.

To me, even though I anticipate no blue wave, I don't think that alone proves Trump would be gaining in popularity. I think what it will show is a rejection of what passes for Democrats these days. Most of what I see happening I don't credit Trump for - rather, the liberal left has lost it's mind and normal people are not having it.

dyna mo

If the economy is still humming along like it is now, I would expect a low voter turnout except for younger voters, 18-24 year olds seem to be getting politically motivated. If there is a blue wave this midterm, I'm guessing it will be these Gen Z voters. if the economy takes a massive crap in the next 90 days (it won't), expect a bunch of seats to change.

Vendzilla

I just watched a commercial from a democrat stating if elected he will end school shootings? I don't believe him.

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think about that

kane

The reason any party runs on the "hate Incumbent" platform is because it works.

Obama came into office and was very popular right out the gate. That changed by the time the first midterm came around but Democrats were still talking about running this country for the next 20 years and how the Republicans were done. The party was broken. They had no leader etc. . . All the Republicans did that first two years of Obama's presidency was say "no" and filibuster everything. They had no plans and no ideas, and yet in the first midterm there was a red wave because "Hate Obama" worked and it got their voters out.

It might not work again, but hate is a pretty powerful motivator.

Democrats are likely betting a combination of hating Trump, gun control, net neutrality, and the Russia investigation will motivate their base and young voters. Maybe it will, maybe it won't, but let's not pretend like Republicans took back the House in 2010 because they had some grand agenda.

xClips Jim

Well, it could. I personally don't believe these economic numbers to be accurate. Seeing a bunch of manipulation in precious metals - more than usual.

I know zippo about Generation Z and how they will vote but from what I see in their overall social media trends, they are not in a hurry to deal with people that go insane over Chinese prom dresses or other "cultural appropriation" political correctness.

Maybe it will be cool to like Trump since they see the media acting like idiots. We shall see!

More likely they will not vote at all - LOL.

xClips Jim

The Republican agenda is horrible - and has been for as long as I can remember. This is not that agenda. You will soon be seeing the Koch brothers lining up to pour money on Democrats - because that is the old Republican party now.

This is a new agenda - not the old Republican bullshit.

kane

I think sometimes Republicans like to overthink the effect identity politics plays. I don't doubt that it has some effect. Some people see Democrats as fighting for who can piss in what bathroom and who said what that offended whom and they feel like they are out of touch, but I don't think it really plays all that much of a role.

Let's not forget, more people cast ballots for identity politic wielding, corrupt, under investigation Hillary than Trump. A lot of people act like Trump won in a landslide and the Republicans came in on a wave. The reality is he barely won and the Republicans lost seats in the House and Senate. They backed into this victory. Those same people who barely pushed them over the finish line may not vote or may easily vote for others.

kane

Then what is this "new agenda"?

dyna mo

I'm not suggesting people read the numbers and then decide things are good. the numbers prove people are doing well in the economy.

xClips Jim

It depends on how you view it. By the numbers, it was close enough that certainly there was no mandate.

I think things have changed in a positive way for Trump. And I believe he really is just getting started. Lots of housecleaning needed before everyone could move in and actually get to work - the 3 letter agencies and the State Dept were a fucking joke - since rectified. Now is when things are going to get interesting...

xClips Jim

Eh, no thanks. Refer to the cartoon I guess? I am not typing out how this admin is different than previous Republicans, sorry...

xClips Jim

Before dinner, I'll give you one new agenda I think is likely coming that normal Republicans will wet the bed over.

NAFTA. I don't see how it survives this President. I mean, everyone else could just immediately cave in, but that's not likely. More likely is that Canada and Mexico will bitch, moan and blame everyone else - and meanwhile, the rest of the world will follow the money and invest in America and not Mexico and Canada. And then Mexico and Canada will fall in line - and by that, I don't mean the PEOPLE of those countries who are getting screwed by their Governments like we are over here. The PEOPLE of Canada and Mexico are victims of this shitty deal, too. Corruption city.