As mAs any as 200,000 to 1.7 million people will die.

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  • DeadFidel
    Confirmed User
    • Jul 2003
    • 6764
    #1

    As mAs any as 200,000 to 1.7 million people will die.

    NY Times today.

    Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people will die.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/u...-estimate.html
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    • notinmybackyard
      Confirmed User
      • Sep 2012
      • 3230
      #2
      There are 7 billion people in the world. If 1.7 million die that works out to 0.024% of the world's population.

      That's well below 1% and that makes this beyond a pathetic joke.
      officially retired as of March 01 2018 but still fucking around and getting into shit.

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        • Applebite Media
          Confirmed User
          • Apr 2018
          • 406
          #3
          Not to sound cold, but the herd can use a little thinning. We are overpopulating this planet.
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            • artwilliams
              Confirmed User
              • Aug 2004
              • 252
              #4
              World population: 7,700,000,000
              Possible infection rate: 40%
              Death rate: 1%
              Dead: 30,800,000

              So the high side to the death rate would be 10s of millions. That's a lot people. Let's hope this doesn't happen. BTW, the flu only kills .1% of the people that get it. This is 10x deadlier than the flu.
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                • OldJeff
                  'cheeky curmudgeon'
                  • Feb 2003
                  • 2588
                  #5
                  Originally posted by artwilliams
                  World population: 7,700,000,000
                  Possible infection rate: 40%
                  Death rate: 1%
                  Dead: 30,800,000

                  So the high side to the death rate would be 10s of millions. That's a lot people. Let's hope this doesn't happen. BTW, the flu only kills .1% of the people that get it. This is 10x deadlier than the flu.
                  Death rate is actually 3% currently
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                    • plsureking
                      bored
                      • Aug 2003
                      • 4966
                      #6
                      that's why we got ahead of it. we're not europeans lol

                      #
                      # ./

                        Comment

                        • _Richard_
                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                          • Oct 2006
                          • 30989
                          #7
                          Originally posted by OldJeff
                          Death rate is actually 3% currently
                          think it's more complicated than a single percentage.. last thing i read had the death rate at 14% for 80 and over, with .4% at 60 or something

                            Comment

                            • Grapesoda
                              So Fucking Banned
                              • Jul 2003
                              • 46234
                              #8
                              Originally posted by OldJeff
                              Death rate is actually 3% currently
                              mostly geezers though right?

                                Comment

                                • Nick_awt
                                  Confirmed User
                                  • Jan 2009
                                  • 595
                                  #9
                                  Originally posted by notinmybackyard
                                  There are 7 billion people in the world. If 1.7 million die that works out to 0.024% of the world's population.

                                  That's well below 1% and that makes this beyond a pathetic joke.
                                  Well there are 7.8 billion people in the world now.
                                  So that would make it even more of a pathetic joke than u stated lol.

                                  However, the figures from the NY Times clearly state, that max 1.7m death toll is just for the US. Not the planet.
                                  So a death rate of nearer 0.5%.

                                  Bottom line.
                                  Of 'confirmed cases' (which actually account for just a fraction atm of infected people).
                                  92% have recovered. 8% have died. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

                                  So in order to estimate the actual death rate. You need to estimate the number of people actually infected divided by the actual death rate.

                                  Theres probably more than 10x more people with the virus than have been tested and confirmed, which would put the death rate below 1%.

                                  Example. 8% death rate of confirmed cases. Let's say 10% people get tested and confirmed. And then 40% of say US population are infected (its likely to be much higher 50-70%). That would mean a death rate of 0.32% of the US population.

                                  I think US population is 330m ish. So that would mean 1.056m deaths, which about somewhere in the middle of those estimates.

                                  The virus is thought to be potentially 1000x more infectious than SARS (2003).
                                  If so, then mass infections in the 40-80% range of population are almost inevitable over time.

                                  It's not going away any time soon that is for sure, without some kind of miracle.

                                    Comment

                                    • The Porn Nerd
                                      Living The Dream
                                      • Jun 2009
                                      • 19800
                                      #10
                                      There is NO WAY that 1/3 of the American population is going to DIE from this. Now stop it.
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                                        • Rochard
                                          Jägermeister Test Pilot
                                          • Dec 2001
                                          • 75764
                                          #11
                                          Originally posted by The Porn Nerd
                                          There is NO WAY that 1/3 of the American population is going to DIE from this. Now stop it.
                                          Maybe not.

                                          Read up on the Spanish Flu. It had a death rate of 3%. Using round numbers, if we take 3% of the world population of eight billion people... That's 240 million people... 240 million people who die.

                                          Then factor in modern society where millions of people fly around the globe daily.

                                          Random fact... The Spanish Flu killed more people in 24 weeks than AIDs did in twenty-four years.
                                          Herschel Savage
                                          Brooklyn, NY

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                                            • Nick_awt
                                              Confirmed User
                                              • Jan 2009
                                              • 595
                                              #12
                                              Originally posted by The Porn Nerd
                                              There is NO WAY that 1/3 of the American population is going to DIE from this. Now stop it.
                                              Who's said that ?

                                                Comment

                                                • BlackCrayon
                                                  Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                  • Jun 2003
                                                  • 19634
                                                  #13
                                                  All because of the Chinese lust for exotic meats and their unsanitary conditions. Wow, way to fuck up the world, China.
                                                  you don't know you're wearing a leash if you sit by the peg all day..

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                                                    • InfoGuy
                                                      80/20 Rule
                                                      • Apr 2010
                                                      • 3052
                                                      #14
                                                      As the saying goes, "only 2 things are certain in life, death and taxes". More dead people means more business for SCI and HI.
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                                                        • boziffous
                                                          Confirmed User
                                                          • Apr 2009
                                                          • 1372
                                                          #15
                                                          So far out of the 89,633 closed cases of Coronavirus, the fatality rate has been 8.87%.

                                                          81,683 have recovered/discharged
                                                          7,950 have died
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                                                            • DeadFidel
                                                              Confirmed User
                                                              • Jul 2003
                                                              • 6764
                                                              #16
                                                              Originally posted by BlackCrayon
                                                              All because of the Chinese lust for exotic meats and their unsanitary conditions. Wow, way to fuck up the world, China.
                                                              Lychee and Dog Meat Festival in Guangxi, China, still on Sunday
                                                              June 21

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                                                                • Speigelau
                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                  • Jul 2007
                                                                  • 3032
                                                                  #17
                                                                  Originally posted by Rochard
                                                                  Maybe not.

                                                                  Read up on the Spanish Flu. It had a death rate of 3%. Using round numbers, if we take 3% of the world population of eight billion people... That's 240 million people... 240 million people who die.

                                                                  Then factor in modern society where millions of people fly around the globe daily.

                                                                  Random fact... The Spanish Flu killed more people in 24 weeks than AIDs did in twenty-four years.
                                                                  Yet already after than less than 2 months, China had no new cases today.

                                                                    Comment

                                                                    • mopek1
                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                      • Jun 2004
                                                                      • 3229
                                                                      #18
                                                                      Originally posted by The Porn Nerd
                                                                      There is NO WAY that 1/3 of the American population is going to DIE from this. Now stop it.
                                                                      Of course not.

                                                                      People are calculating the death rates wrong.

                                                                      They are high for the elderly, but most people who are infected are not included in the total number of cases. Most if not almost all children are asymptomatic and many younger adults infected either have no symptoms, cold symptoms or mild flu symptoms. So a HUGE chunk of people are excluded from thus ratio.

                                                                      Same with the seasonal flu. They don't actually count all the people who have the flu because most people stay home and rest instead of going to the doctor or if they do go to the doctor they don't get tested.

                                                                      This is getting out of hand and we are in panic mode (quarantine) without knowing why.

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                                                                        • The Porn Nerd
                                                                          Living The Dream
                                                                          • Jun 2009
                                                                          • 19800
                                                                          #19
                                                                          Originally posted by Nick_awt
                                                                          Who's said that ?
                                                                          Doctors at the CDC and people in Trump's Administration are throwing these crazy numbers around. Totally absurd!

                                                                          Originally posted by mopek1
                                                                          Of course not.

                                                                          People are calculating the death rates wrong.

                                                                          They are high for the elderly, but most people who are infected are not included in the total number of cases. Most if not almost all children are asymptomatic and many younger adults infected either have no symptoms, cold symptoms or mild flu symptoms. So a HUGE chunk of people are excluded from thus ratio.

                                                                          Same with the seasonal flu. They don't actually count all the people who have the flu because most people stay home and rest instead of going to the doctor or if they do go to the doctor they don't get tested.

                                                                          This is getting out of hand and we are in panic mode (quarantine) without knowing why.
                                                                          Exactly. And I am now starting to get worried about Governmental over reach, grabbing way too much power in this crises. What will the social landscape look like a couple months from now? Scary.
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                                                                            • Easyboy
                                                                              So Fucking Banned
                                                                              • Mar 2020
                                                                              • 30
                                                                              #20
                                                                              I don`t believe this information, just look at China, they almost won that mess

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                                                                                • EddyTheDog
                                                                                  Just Doing My Own Thing
                                                                                  • Jan 2011
                                                                                  • 25439
                                                                                  #21
                                                                                  There are 2 short words that you can add to almost any statement in this thread and almost every political sound bite re CV19 -"SO FAR"...

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