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Old 04-18-2011, 06:19 PM   #1
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:stoned S&P warning: Fix deficit or risk credit rating

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A key credit agency issued an unprecedented warning to the United States government Monday, urging Washington to get a grip on its finances or risk losing the nation's sterling credit rating.

For the first time, Standard & Poor's lowered its long-term outlook for the federal government's fiscal health from "stable" to "negative," and warned of serious consequences if lawmakers fail to reach a deal to control the massive federal deficit.

An impasse could prompt the agency to strip the government of its top investment rating in the next two years, S&P said. A loss of the triple-A rating would ripple through the American economy, making loans more expensive and credit more difficult to obtain.

The downgrade was interpreted as a rebuke to President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans, admonishing them to put politics aside and come up with a long-term financial plan as soon as possible.

"This is a warning: Don't mess around," said Robert Bixby, executive director of the Concord Coalition, a nonpartisan group that is pushing for deficit reduction.

Analysts at S&P have never before used the outlook to cast doubt on the nation's credit worthiness.

In response, stocks suffered their worst slide in a month. The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 245 points before recovering to close down 140 points for the day.

"The credit quality of U.S. debt is sacrosanct, and legislators will do everything within their power to avoid a downgrade," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank.

The government is on pace to run a record $1.5 trillion deficit this year, the third consecutive deficit exceeding $1 trillion.

But so far, S&P sees little chance that the White House and Congress will agree on a deficit-reduction plan before the November 2012 elections, and the rating agency doubts that any plan would be in place until 2014 or later.

Obama and congressional Republicans are sparring over how to reduce the nation's red ink. If Congress refuses to raise the nation's debt limit this spring, and the U.S. Treasury lost authority to borrow additional money, the government would not be able to pay its bills and would default on its debt.

Although it's a worst-case scenario that's highly unlikely, default by the government means anyone owning federal debt of any kind - bills, notes, bonds - could go unpaid.

Both sides have proposed cutting $4 trillion from future deficits over the next 10 to 12 years.

The White House wants to reduce the deficit through spending cuts and by ending the Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthy. Republicans reject that, calling it a tax increase. They seek instead to narrow the deficit largely by overhauling Medicare and cutting spending elsewhere.

The credit report called the two proposals a "starting point" of the process, but warned that the gap between the parties remained wide.

S&P took no position about how to reduce the deficit or how to change spending and revenue plans.

"But for any plan to be credible, we believe that it would need to secure support from a cross-section of leaders in both parties," S&P said in its report.

A lower credit rating would drive up the government's borrowing costs. It could lead to higher interest rates on everything from mortgages to car loans and threaten to slow U.S. economic growth.

Ablin said the credit worthiness of the country is the underpinning on which all other asset classes are valued.

"If all of a sudden the credit quality of U.S. Treasurys isn't as high as people perceive, we could see erosion of confidence," he said.

For now, S&P continues to give the U.S. government its top investment ranking. That means S&P believes that the U.S. government can and will repay its debts and that Treasury investments are virtually risk-free. But the agency says the U.S. faces a one in three chance of a downgrade in the next two years. That would likely happen if the White House and Congress could not come up with a credible plan for reducing debt.

The other major credit agencies - Moody's and Fitch Ratings - did not match S&P's outlook warning.

S&P gives its top investment rating to just 19 of the 127 countries it analyzes. But it says Britain, France and Germany moved much faster to contain deficits after the 2008 financial crisis and 2007-2009 recession, which cut tax revenues and forced governments to spend more on unemployment benefits, aid to the poor and bailouts of the banking system. Those countries also have top-notch investment ratings.

S&P noted that the U.S. deficit grew to 11 percent of economic activity in 2009, a risky percentage. The deficit averaged less than half that percentage in the previous six years.

The government was beginning to run surpluses at the end of the Clinton administration. But deficits returned after President George W. Bush's tax cuts, a 2001 recession, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and a massive expansion of Medicare's drug coverage.

The deficit widened even more after the Great Recession started in 2007, depleting tax revenue and raising spending to stimulate the economy and provide benefits for the unemployed and the poor.

In the past, credit warnings have jolted politicians into action.

In May 2009, Standard & Poor's downgraded its long-term outlook on the United Kingdom to negative, saying that the country's debt could double in four years.

Prime Minister David Cameron and his Conservative-Liberal coalition government laid out plans to cut nearly 500,000 jobs and reduce welfare spending. Britain's economy also posted modest gains, and the ratings agency changed its outlook in October back to "stable," noting the government's "political resolve."

In recent months, at least two countries - Portugal and Greece - have had their credit ratings downgraded as they endured financial woes of their own.

The Obama administration embraced Monday's warning as a welcome call for cooperation among the two political parties. Press secretary Jay Carney said the White House believes the political process will outperform the agency's expectations because the president and Congress recognize the problem.

A budget showdown is likely in the next few weeks. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said the government will reach its debt limit no later than May 16. He can juggle funds to keep the government running until about July 8, after which the government could not pay its bills.

On Sunday, Geithner said Republican leaders have privately assured the Obama administration that Congress will raise the government's borrowing limit in time to avoid an unprecedented default on the nation's debt.

But Rep. Eric Cantor, the No. 2 Republican in the House, took a hard line Monday, calling the S&P announcement "a wake-up call to those in Washington asking Congress to blindly increase the debt limit." He said Republicans would only agree to raise the debt ceiling if the White House agrees to "serious reforms that immediately reduce federal spending and to end the culture of debt in Washington."

A bipartisan deficit-reduction commission appointed by Obama recommended late last year that about $4 trillion be slashed from budget deficits during the coming decade.

Under the commission's plan, roughly two-thirds of the savings would come through spending cuts and one-third through increased tax revenue. Although overall tax rates would decline, dozens of popular tax breaks would be scaled back or eliminated, including the child tax credit, mortgage interest deductions and deductions claimed by employers who provide health insurance.

Obama praised the panel for its work, but embraced few of its recommendations, and none of the major ones on new taxes.

For now, U.S. politicians are at a stalemate. "There is bipartisan agreement on the need to reduce the debt by $4 trillion over roughly the next decade," said Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y. "Now we just need to resolve how to do it."
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Old 04-18-2011, 06:21 PM   #2
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Credit rating could become worse if debt is not paid within due dates.
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Old 04-18-2011, 06:24 PM   #3
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very simple fix..

cut military spending by withdrawing from wars...

stop sucking the corporate cock and do whats best for the people..

cut off the government tit that keeps feeding people that feel entitled to a free life..

raise taxes and make everyone pay their fair share...

we are at a tipping point as a country and unless drastic changes are made, we are headed to the collapse of the empire...





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Old 04-18-2011, 06:25 PM   #4
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very simple fix..

cut military spending by withdrawing from wars...
Agreed.
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Old 04-18-2011, 06:28 PM   #5
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i wonder what our total debt is, at all levels, fed, state, city, mud, etc added up.

ain't no catching up to that #, whatever it is eh.
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Old 04-19-2011, 06:37 AM   #6
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Obama's on the case.
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Old 04-19-2011, 06:56 AM   #7
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what would happen if the 45% of americans who paid nothing each paid $1000?
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Old 04-19-2011, 07:01 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by marketsmart View Post
very simple fix..

cut military spending by withdrawing from wars...

stop sucking the corporate cock and do whats best for the people..

cut off the government tit that keeps feeding people that feel entitled to a free life..

raise taxes and make everyone pay their fair share...

we are at a tipping point as a country and unless drastic changes are made, we are headed to the collapse of the empire...
.
That's all money sloshing around in the US economy, well most of it.

Unless China now builds your arms, owns all your corporations, etc.

Stop buying so much from overseas and start selling more to them. Or face cuts like are biting in Greece, Spain, Eire and the UK. Which will take money out of your pockets.
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Old 04-19-2011, 07:02 AM   #9
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what would happen if the 45% of americans who paid nothing each paid $1000?
You wouldn't even make a dent on just the interest alone.

The root of the problem won't be addressed. (As long as an establishment puppet is at the helm) which is the federal reserve and paying interest on creating money from nothing.
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Old 04-19-2011, 07:05 AM   #10
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what would happen if the 45% of americans who paid nothing each paid $1000?
They wouldn't be buying memberships on your sites or food at the local supermarket.

What about the top 1% not sending or spending so much of their money outside the US?

The US has spent more than it eared for decades, Clinton dragged it up and then Bush dragged it down. Or the powers in office at the time.

Now the lenders are getting worried the US can service the interest on the debt. Paying it back is not the concern now.
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Old 04-19-2011, 07:10 AM   #11
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You wouldn't even make a dent on just the interest alone.

The root of the problem won't be addressed. (As long as an establishment puppet is at the helm) which is the federal reserve and paying interest on creating money from nothing.
mixed with other spending cuts this would make a significant impact... unless you are bad with math anyway...

a step in the right direction is one step closer than you were before that...
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Old 04-19-2011, 07:18 AM   #12
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very simple fix..

cut military spending by withdrawing from wars...

stop sucking the corporate cock and do whats best for the people..

cut off the government tit that keeps feeding people that feel entitled to a free life..

raise taxes and make everyone pay their fair share...

we are at a tipping point as a country and unless drastic changes are made, we are headed to the collapse of the empire...





.
Yep.. sho nuff. You hit the nail right on the head
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Old 04-19-2011, 07:39 AM   #13
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mixed with other spending cuts this would make a significant impact... unless you are bad with math anyway...

a step in the right direction is one step closer than you were before that...
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/r...ir_expense.htm



Interest Expense Fiscal

2010 $413,954,825,362.17

Year 2011
$215,581,249,409.94

1000x300,000,000 = $300,000,000,000 x 45% = $135,000,000,000

Doesn't cover the interest

You also have to consider the fact that the majority of the 45% of Americans they use as a scapegoat who don't pay taxes don't work and/or are children elderly.

Should we start slave labor camps for them so we can pay the interest? Oh wait I forgot we already have Walmart.



The problem is paying interest on the money created out of thin air..
Plain and simple.
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Old 04-19-2011, 07:42 AM   #14
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Not only is the money created out of thin air, so is the interest.
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Old 04-19-2011, 07:45 AM   #15
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what would happen if the 45% of americans who paid nothing each paid $1000?
You know that what you are saying is really false, right? The actual number of people paying no federal tax is more like 10%. There are no deductions for payroll tax. In that sense, the picture you are painting of "paid nothing at all" is false. it is true that, in 2010, 47% of taxpayers owed no income tax... and that number isn't all poor people. Exxon and GE didn't pay any taxes either...

EVERYONE pays taxes... NOT EVERYONE owes federal income tax.
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Old 04-19-2011, 07:50 AM   #16
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Here is a study from 2009 of state and local taxes that shows tax liability by income level... you will probably be surprised at the findings.

http://www.itepnet.org/whopays3.pdf
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Old 04-19-2011, 07:55 AM   #17
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Not only is the money created out of thin air, so is the interest.
And now they are printing money and charging interest just to pay the debt from printing money and charging interest.
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Old 04-19-2011, 07:59 AM   #18
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And now they are printing money and charging interest just to pay the debt from printing money and charging interest.
It's always been like that since the start of the Federal Reserve... didn't you know that? The govt owes the Federal Reserve for every dollar it prints.
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Old 04-19-2011, 08:05 AM   #19
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It's always been like that since the start of the Federal Reserve... didn't you know that? The govt owes the Federal Reserve for every dollar it prints.
Yes, I've been talking about it here and everywhere else for years but I tend to get called a cook for doing so. The government and the shareholder owned Federal Reserve can do no wrong don't you know?
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Old 04-19-2011, 08:06 AM   #20
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speaking of the debt and interest, this graph (based on actual data from the fed gov, shows interest on debt dropping dramatically(below 2006 levels) from 2009-2010

it also shows entitlement programs are as expensive as the military

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Old 04-19-2011, 08:11 AM   #21
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speaking of the debt and interest, this graph (based on actual data from the fed gov, shows interest on debt dropping dramatically(below 2006 levels) from 2009-2010

it also shows entitlement programs are as expensive as the military
They are manipulating the numbers. The reason it appears to be dropping is because at the moment the Fed isn't charging interest on "current borrowing". And hasn't been doing so. The just make up the difference in inflation (the hidden tax)

The actual interest agreed in writing on the debt by the US congress is around 6% a year no matter what they are "currently" charging.
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Old 04-19-2011, 08:18 AM   #22
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speaking of the debt and interest, this graph (based on actual data from the fed gov, shows interest on debt dropping dramatically(below 2006 levels) from 2009-2010

it also shows entitlement programs are as expensive as the military
I find it interesting that the site lists SafeLink Wireless as an "Example of Socialism**."

Those phones aren't paid for by the government but by the telecoms themselves... so it makes me a little skeptical of the information on the site.
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Old 04-19-2011, 08:25 AM   #23
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They are manipulating the numbers. The reason it appears to be dropping is because at the moment the Fed isn't charging interest on "current borrowing". And hasn't been doing so. The just make up the difference in inflation (the hidden tax)

The actual interest agreed in writing on the debt by the US congress is around 6% a year no matter what they are "currently" charging.
wouldn't that just freeze the amount? how long has the interest-free been going on? since the bailouts i'd wager, that's over 2 years. that graph shows a $150billion difference in one year.
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I find it interesting that the site lists SafeLink Wireless as an "Example of Socialism**."

Those phones aren't paid for by the government but by the telecoms themselves... so it makes me a little skeptical of the information on the site.
i hear ya, the total net worth of billionaires thing is kinda silly as well. nevertheless, i think this graph does show where the money generally goes, it seems to me anyhoo.
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Old 04-19-2011, 08:36 AM   #24
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wouldn't that just freeze the amount? how long has the interest-free been going on? since the bailouts i'd wager, that's over 2 years. that graph shows a $150billion difference in one year.
It's very difficult to explain how it all works. The fact of the matter is that they aren't paying down ANYTHING considering the obvious tell that the fed is buying the bonds they would generally sell to raise the cash for the government with their own freshly printed money. So they are creating more debt to create the debt.

With the creation of the federal Reserve the government agreed to around 6% interest no matter what the Fed is currently charging banks to buy the bond to create the debt.

Some good vids on the subject

Money as Debt


The American Dream

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Old 04-19-2011, 08:45 AM   #25
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i have a general understanding of the debt markets, thx. but that doesn't explain the >25% drop in interest DUE in 1 year. i'm not trying to suggest 25% of our debt was paid down last year, nevertheless, the chart displays a massive 1 year decrease.
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Old 04-19-2011, 08:58 AM   #26
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i have a general understanding of the debt markets, thx. but that doesn't explain the >25% drop in interest DUE in 1 year. i'm not trying to suggest 25% of our debt was paid down last year, nevertheless, the chart displays a massive 1 year decrease.
They are fudging the numbers so it looks good on paper?
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Old 04-19-2011, 09:10 AM   #27
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They are fudging the numbers so it looks good on paper?
that's more like it! fuck
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Old 04-19-2011, 10:05 AM   #28
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i have a general understanding of the debt markets, thx. but that doesn't explain the >25% drop in interest DUE in 1 year. i'm not trying to suggest 25% of our debt was paid down last year, nevertheless, the chart displays a massive 1 year decrease.
I could be that the buyers of US Treasury debt are switching between long-term debt and short term debt where the interest rate is much lower.
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Old 04-19-2011, 10:12 AM   #29
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Fact: we can not tax ourselves out of the situation. If we taxed 'the rich' (anyone over $100k a year) 100% we could still not have enough to pay the DEFICIT this year!
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Old 04-19-2011, 10:19 AM   #30
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Fact: we can not tax ourselves out of the situation. If we taxed 'the rich' (anyone over $100k a year) 100% we could still not have enough to pay the DEFICIT this year!
Just because you write "Fact" doesn't make it a fact... as a matter of fact, your assertion is incorrect just as it is on the website above.
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Old 04-19-2011, 10:24 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by nation-x View Post
Just because you write "Fact" doesn't make it a fact... as a matter of fact, your assertion is incorrect just as it is on the website above.
Please show me where I am wrong. I have yet to find anything that shows opposite of what Rep. Tim Scott said on the House floor last Thursday morning.



Another racist tea bagger.
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Old 04-19-2011, 10:40 AM   #32
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#notmeanttobeafactualstatement

Tax receipts for 2010 were $2.162 Trillion

Logic should dictate that if we were taxing people at 100% that number would be more like $8-10 Trillion

According to REPUBLICANS, people earning $100K+ pay around 70% of federal income tax revenues (the top 20% of earners). Considering that 70% of $2.162 Trillion is about $1.5 Trillion you can see how the statement you made was false.
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Old 04-19-2011, 10:50 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by nation-x View Post
#notmeanttobeafactualstatement

Tax receipts for 2010 were $2.162 Trillion

Logic should dictate that if we were taxing people at 100% that number would be more like $8-10 Trillion

According to REPUBLICANS, people earning $100K+ pay around 70% of federal income tax revenues (the top 20% of earners). Considering that 70% of $2.162 Trillion is about $1.5 Trillion you can see how the statement you made was false.
Your numbers are wrong since as of 2009 there were only around 8 trillion us dollars in the world.

Although unknown.

http://money.howstuffworks.com/how-m...-the-world.htm

Quote:
All told, anyone looking for all of the U.S. dollars in the world in July 2009 could expect to find around $8.3 trillion in existence.
Plus I believe the number of 70% includes businesses.


(I was actually hoping to see some hard facts either for or against what he said because I can not find them anywhere lol)
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Old 04-19-2011, 10:58 AM   #34
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This guy seems illustrate the problem nicely. Maybe that 100k number was wrong.
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Old 04-19-2011, 10:59 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by IllTestYourGirls View Post
Your numbers are wrong since as of 2009 there were only around 8 trillion us dollars in the world.

Although unknown.

http://money.howstuffworks.com/how-m...-the-world.htm



Plus I believe the number of 70% includes businesses.
He said businesses when he made that false statement... watch the video again. There is a difference between paper money in circulation and actual money in the economy. GDP is over $13 Trillion. The total value of real estate in the US is more than $15 Trillion. See what I mean? Just because the money isn't in circulation doesn't mean thyat it doesn't exist in real value. I am sure that the Hedge Fund manager that made $4B last year didn't get paid in cash.

The point remains that tax receipts are $2.162 Trillion in 2010 and if tax payers above $100K represent 70% of that then his statement (and yours) is false. It's not rocket science.
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Old 04-19-2011, 11:05 AM   #36
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He said businesses when he made that false statement... watch the video again.
He said "individual" more than once.

Quote:
if we were to tax these individuals 100 percent of their income, we still could not cover our deficit this year alone. As a matter of fact, to tax our way out of debt we would need to increase taxes across the board on every man, on every woman and every business by 60 percent. You simply cannot tax your way out of this debt
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Old 04-19-2011, 11:11 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by nation-x View Post
#notmeanttobeafactualstatement

Tax receipts for 2010 were $2.162 Trillion

Logic should dictate that if we were taxing people at 100% that number would be more like $8-10 Trillion
tax receipts would actually be zero... with 100% tax, no one would work, what would the point be?

Laffer curve FTW
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Old 04-19-2011, 11:14 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by IllTestYourGirls View Post


This guy seems illustrate the problem nicely. Maybe that 100k number was wrong.
That might be interesting if what he said was true... but as usual for right wing demagogues, he is using bullshit numbers and statistics to support his argument. Idiots like this one are why we can't have a substantive conversation... how can you have one when someone insults your intelligence from the get go

What Michael Moore was referring to was the fact that, according to the US Treasury, the total net worth of all US citizens and companies combined is $61 Trillion. Roughly 87% of that is controlled by the top 25%.
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Old 04-19-2011, 11:16 AM   #39
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I could be that the buyers of US Treasury debt are switching between long-term debt and short term debt where the interest rate is much lower.
that would explain it eh.
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Originally Posted by IllTestYourGirls View Post
Fact: we can not tax ourselves out of the situation. If we taxed 'the rich' (anyone over $100k a year) 100% we could still not have enough to pay the DEFICIT this year!
that's kind of why i posted this:
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Originally Posted by dyna mo View Post
i wonder what our total debt is, at all levels, fed, state, city, mud, etc added up.

ain't no catching up to that #, whatever it is eh.
isn't most debate about dealing with the federal deficit? what about the entire deficit at all levels?
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Old 04-19-2011, 11:27 AM   #40
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http://www.federalreserve.gov/releas...current/z1.pdf

I was incorrect.

Quote:
Household net worth—the difference between the value of assets and liabilities—was an estimated $56.8 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter, up about $2.1 trillion from the end of the previous quarter.
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Old 04-19-2011, 11:34 AM   #41
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found this, not sure how accurate it is:::

Our national debt has topped $14 trillion.

Our personal debt ? mortgages, personal loans, car loans, and credit cards ? totals more than $16 trillion.

State debt stands at $1.16 trillion.

Local governments owe more than $1.7 trillion.

Total U.S. debt tops $55.7 trillion.

The interest on that debt just in 2011 will surpass $3.5 trillion.
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Old 04-19-2011, 12:10 PM   #42
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In this case net worth means nothing. We are talking about income tax.

Unless you are literally taking about the government seizing physical items to sell to pay off the debt.
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Old 04-19-2011, 12:13 PM   #43
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found this, not sure how accurate it is:::

Our national debt has topped $14 trillion.

Our personal debt ? mortgages, personal loans, car loans, and credit cards ? totals more than $16 trillion.

State debt stands at $1.16 trillion.

Local governments owe more than $1.7 trillion.

Total U.S. debt tops $55.7 trillion.

The interest on that debt just in 2011 will surpass $3.5 trillion.
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Yeah we can win! Just seize all physical wealth!

56.8 trillion minus our total debt of 55.7 trillion and we have a cool 1.1 trillion left! Winning!
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Old 04-19-2011, 12:15 PM   #44
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Wow. Someone finally took a break from smoking the devil's glass dick (crack pipe) at the S&P to issue this "warning"? Where where they 3 years ago. Sheesh.

Too little too late anyone?

Reminds me of that Dot Bust analyst who finally downgraded dot com stocks after they have already crashed in 2001. Classic.
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Old 04-19-2011, 12:39 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by IllTestYourGirls View Post
Yeah we can win! Just seize all physical wealth!

56.8 trillion minus our total debt of 55.7 trillion and we have a cool 1.1 trillion left! Winning!
$56.8 Trillion is the positive number - the difference between the value of assets and liabilities. Read much?
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Old 04-19-2011, 12:53 PM   #46
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Listen everyone is comparing different things.
Including or excluding different taxes to make a point.
Something that makes me sick, is people who say
"This doesn't even start to pay ..........."
Who gives a fuck, it is a START, then build upon that.
Or think of it as, the little bit paid off, will NOT have interest compounded.
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Old 04-19-2011, 01:02 PM   #47
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You know that what you are saying is really false, right? The actual number of people paying no federal tax is more like 10%. There are no deductions for payroll tax. In that sense, the picture you are painting of "paid nothing at all" is false. it is true that, in 2010, 47% of taxpayers owed no income tax... and that number isn't all poor people. Exxon and GE didn't pay any taxes either...

EVERYONE pays taxes... NOT EVERYONE owes federal income tax.
dear child, 47% of the population pay no income tax. there's nothing false about it.
dope.
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Old 04-19-2011, 01:10 PM   #48
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Here is a study from 2009 of state and local taxes that shows tax liability by income level... you will probably be surprised at the findings.

http://www.itepnet.org/whopays3.pdf
that study shows one thing, the poor should spend less and buy homes they can afford.
neither of which they currently do and neither of which anyone forces them not to do
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Old 04-19-2011, 01:15 PM   #49
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that study shows one thing, the poor should spend less and buy homes they can afford.
neither of which they currently do and neither of which anyone forces them not to do
agreed... too bad George Bush didn't agree and helped over 5 million get loans with no money down between 2004 and 2007.
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Old 04-19-2011, 01:21 PM   #50
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agreed... too bad George Bush didn't agree and helped over 5 million get loans with no money down between 2004 and 2007.
link?????
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