2011 forecast

[bcnspain]

do you think that 2011 will be better than this year?
or every year less sales until disappeared the adult bussines?

the people who start in the adult bussines in 1998 knows the trend

[DWB]

You will see a mass exodus from adult and a lot of consolidation.

[Spunky]

God Damn the Tube man

[tabasco]

I believe many of the big boys will close their affiliate programs.

[Trend]

I believe you will see:

a. Many affiliate programs close their doors. Sites will remain open.

b. The # of affiliates will be drastically reduced.

c. There will be fewer site releases and less content produced overall.

d. Consolidation and the emergence of 2-3 companies the size of Manseff / Manwin

e. A proliferation and expansion of the live cam business.


My logic ( which could certainly be flawed ) ....

We saw a 65% decrease in revenue from 2007 to the beginning of 2010. Since then revenue has stabilized at this new "norm" While I can live just fine at this new norm, it is not the type of revenue that can sustain a company. In this new reality, I have no incentive to produce content .. the way we used to... for new paysites. It's expensive, it gets pirated and customer acquisition is far more expensive than it used to be ( for the typical paysite model )

Soooo....

Late in 2010 we figured out that virtually any solo model site , regardless of looks, body type etc can make good, stable money if the model is actually wiling to work 5 days a week / 4 hours a day. This new 'business model" does not need an affiliate program, we can run 5 sites + galleries off of one server and the content costs are 1/6th what they used to be...

So why continue with the model that worked from 2002-2007 but does not now?


Others will find their own new "system" and money can always be made in adult. But I believe the "how" has changed forever.. actually it changed a couple years ago. Just wish I had been wise enough to evolve back then.

and that is my longest post ever