Paysite Math Help

[Mutt]

i really suck at math so maybe some of you guys can help.

A new paysite is opened, it does 1,000 signups a week, it has a retention rate of 2.5 months. At the end of one year, how many members are there?


thanks

[hyper]

2

[Plat]

math sucks...especially fractions

[Shooter]

about 10,714

I think

[Dildozer]

yeah that's about it
Iafter the 10th week your number of members should stay around 10000 til the rest of the year
since there are 52 weeks + 1 day per year
10000 + (1/7*1000) = 10142 members

[G Sharp]

Originally posted by Mutt
i really suck at math so maybe some of you guys can help.

A new paysite is opened, it does 1,000 signups a week, it has a retention rate of 2.5 months. At the end of one year, how many members are there?


thanks

If you round up to 3 months, that would divide the year into 4 blocks of 4,000 members each. Your result is 16,000 members at the end of the year assuming month 9 clients retain for 3 months and your signup intake remains constant.

The real tricky math is figuring your profit point when factoring in:
number of exits and popups
number of upsells
number of email notices
number of email signups

[Dildozer]

Originally posted by G Sharp


If you round up to 3 months, that would divide the year into 4 blocks of 4,000 members each. Your result is 16,000 members at the end of the year assuming month 9 clients retain for 3 months and your signup intake remains constant.

The real tricky math is figuring your profit point when factoring in:
number of exits and popups
number of upsells
number of email notices
number of email signups

if it was 3 months retention you'd flat out at 12000 members since there are some leaving after 3 months

[Spunkyed]

You forgot to factor in that only 35% - 45% will convert from the trial to a full membership, and then stay for 2.5 months

[Dildozer]

Originally posted by Spunky
You forgot to factor in that only 35% - 45% will convert from the trial to a full membership, and then stay for 2.5 months

Yeah the variables in the problem are way too simplistic for any real use

[m0rph3us]

11364

if it maintains 1000 a week.

fuck trials and you'll rock

[Spunkyed]

if you dont do trials, you arent likely to get 1000 signups a week

[Mutt]

thanks for the answers, as dubious as some of them were

um.........yes i know about the variables, just trying to get a simplistic basic picture. So for this example, assume there is no trial offered, and it's consistent all 52 weeks of the year, 1,000 signups per week.

hmmmm.......what if you extended it to a three year projection...same simple example.........every week 1,000 new signups, retention of 2.5 or 3 months if you wanna make it simpler. At the end of 3 years how many members would you have?

[Shooter]

Originally posted by Mutt
thanks for the answers, as dubious as some of them were

um.........yes i know about the variables, just trying to get a simplistic basic picture. So for this example, assume there is no trial offered, and it's consistent all 52 weeks of the year, 1,000 signups per week.

hmmmm.......what if you extended it to a three year projection...same simple example.........every week 1,000 new signups, retention of 2.5 or 3 months if you wanna make it simpler. At the end of 3 years how many members would you have?

After the first 2.5 months, you'd have the same amount of members for good (no growth, no decline), as long as your retention and new sign-ups stayed the same.

[m0rph3us]

Originally posted by Spunky
if you dont do trials, you arent likely to get 1000 signups a week

not true.

[SykkBoy]

Originally posted by Spunky
if you dont do trials, you arent likely to get 1000 signups a week

yup, because webmasters would never send their traffic...they don't know any better...they're easily lead astray by shiny objects and unrealistic payouts on a $3-4 trial...

I think, sometimes, the reason surfers signup for trails...is because they are offered...if you go trial-less and still make your site hot enough, the trials shouldn't matter....

we found interesting results by beta testing some sites with no trials...we've found that the signup ratio wasn't affected THAT much..and those who signed up without trials were worth almost 4.5 times those that went with trials...is it because we actually attempeted a site with content that was...yikes...unique?


How many webmasters would send to a pay per signup that didn't offer a trial? if say, that payout was $50 no shave? If not for carders/cheating cocksucking fuckbaits, we could almost do a $70 per signup with no trial...but have to factor in those bitches....

fuck it, I prefer partnership....sure we don't have the numbers "the players" do, but it's nice knowing we don't have to worry about carders, bullshit sales tactics, shaving accusations, etc.


Don't mind me, I hav bronchitits and the meds are kicking in............

[m0rph3us]

Originally posted by Mutt
thanks for the answers, as dubious as some of them were

um.........yes i know about the variables, just trying to get a simplistic basic picture. So for this example, assume there is no trial offered, and it's consistent all 52 weeks of the year, 1,000 signups per week.

hmmmm.......what if you extended it to a three year projection...same simple example.........every week 1,000 new signups, retention of 2.5 or 3 months if you wanna make it simpler. At the end of 3 years how many members would you have?

1000 a week for 3 years.
You would hit a flat line at ~12378 at the end of year one when all new membership = cancelled memberships.

[localG]

7294 at the end of 2 years you pretty much level off after 15 months and would grow a few members a month if every thing stayed the same ..across the boards thats with 135 sign ups a day consistant for 2 years
using 40% trial to convertion and then
80 % to next rebill

[CC]

Originally posted by SykkBoy2

I think, sometimes, the reason surfers signup for trails...is because they are offered...if you go trial-less and still make your site hot enough, the trials shouldn't matter....

Agreed 100%! We've tested this on a lot of our paysites and nearly every single time, we make more money without trials. The decision to NOT use trials is just a matter of numbers for us.

Cassie

[kmanrox]

good luck finding a 2.5month average retention =)

[Mr Pheer]

Originally posted by localG
7294 at the end of 2 years you pretty much level off after 15 months and would grow a few members a month if every thing stayed the same ..across the boards thats with 135 sign ups a day consistant for 2 years
using 40% trial to convertion and then
80 % to next rebill

these numbers sound far more realistic than the others posted

[Calvinguy]

Originally posted by kmanrox
good luck finding a 2.5month average retention =)

It's no problem.... give them what they want for a nice price and they stay.