I rebooted, deleted temp files, history, cookies and everything...still cannot view the news clip. All I see is that fucking gay ass music video from "Rick Roll". Anyone else have a different link to the news clip?
that's it . he got 50 % of chances to win either box he choose . there are only 2 ...
Originally posted by rayadp05
I rebooted, deleted temp files, history, cookies and everything...still cannot view the news clip. All I see is that fucking gay ass music video from "Rick Roll". Anyone else have a different link to the news clip?
I rebooted, deleted temp files, history, cookies and everything...still cannot view the news clip. All I see is that fucking gay ass music video from "Rick Roll". Anyone else have a different link to the news clip?
Originally posted by Doctor Dre i don't beleive a word of that crap ...
you got 3, you remove 1
2 boxes, 50/50.
Read this SLOWLY
There is a 1/3 chance that you'll hit the prize door, and a 2/3 chance that you'll miss the prize. If you do not switch, 1/3 is your probability to get the prize. However, if you missed (and this with the probability of 2/3) then the prize is behind one of the remaining two doors. Furthermore, of these two, the host will open the empty one, leaving the prize door closed. Therefore, if you miss and then switch, you are certain to get the prize. Summing up, if you do not switch your chance of winning is 1/3 whereas if you do switch your chance of winning is 2/3.
THE ONLY CASE WHERE YOU WILL WIN IF YOU DON'T SWITCH IS IF YOU PICKED THE CORRECT BOX ON THE FIRST ATTEMPT = 1/3
THE ONLY CHANCE YOU WILL NOT WIN BY SWITCHING IS IF YOU PICKED THE CORRECT BOX FROM THE START.... (in other words...1/3 chances OF NOT WINNING, HENCE, 2/3 chances of WINNING)
mmm my sig was too big... no more cool animation but hey still! need php?ICQ: 94586959
unless you are clairvoyant, you only have a 1/3 chance in picking it right the first time
once a KNOWN empty has been eliminated, switching provides you with the advantage because with the additional information of a known empty taken out of the equation, youre now basing your decision off of a 2/3 skew
Originally posted by chodadog See, when you first choose, there are 3 possible outcomes. A, B, or C. You have a 1 in 3 chance of picking the correct box.
However, once a box is removed on the condition that said box is not a prize winner, and then given the chance to swap your choice, there are now 4 possibilities.
Everything changes when the third box is removed. 3 has nothing to do with it anymore. You know have 2 boxes and 2 possible variations to each. A total of 4 possible outcomes.
To make my point more obvious, think about it like this. The third box does not matter. Just ignore it. It's a given that you will end up with 2 boxes, one of which is empty, and one of which contains the prize. So why not just start there? Start with two boxes. 1 in 2 chance.
I am 99% sure i've got this right.
The third box DOES matter, that's the whole point...
But let's look at a bigger-sized example. Perhaps that will make it clear.
Imagine someone has 1000 marbles. One of them contains a diamond, 999 do not.
He says "I will let you pick 1 of my marbles, and after that, I will put aside 998 of my marbles that do not contain diamonds."
Independent of your choice, he will ALWAYS be able to put aside 998 marbles that do not contain diamonds.
You pick a marble, with a 1/1000 chance of getting the diamond.
Then, he says, "I will now put aside 998 of my marbles that do not contain a diamond."
Now, has your marble suddenly gone from a 1/1000 chance of being a diamond to a 1/2 chance of being a diamond?
Even if, have you picked any of the non-diamonds, this very same thing would have happened?
unless you are clairvoyant, you only have a 1/3 chance in picking it right the first time
once a KNOWN empty has been eliminated, switching provides you with the advantage because with the additional information of a known empty taken out of the equation, youre now basing your decision off of a 2/3 skew
ok i made it worse
Frustrating to argue against people who somehow fail to see the obvious, isn't it?
That's as simple as it gets. If you have 2 boxes, that's all you have... REGARDLESS of how many are taken away before hand... if you have 2 boxes remaining, that's 2 boxes... the odds are... it's one of the two. That's it.. that's all.
When there are 2 boxes, there is no way that one has 2/3 of chance of being right. Get it? Got it? Good.
Originally posted by MaskedMan omg people... this shouldn't be this difficult.
1 - 3 chances.... take away 1.
1 - 2 chances.
That's as simple as it gets. If you have 2 boxes, that's all you have... REGARDLESS of how many are taken away before hand... if you have 2 boxes remaining, that's 2 boxes... the odds are... it's one of the two. That's it.. that's all.
When there are 2 boxes, there is no way that one has 2/3 of chance of being right. Get it? Got it? Good.
Originally posted by punkworld The third box DOES matter, that's the whole point...
But let's look at a bigger-sized example. Perhaps that will make it clear.
Imagine someone has 1000 marbles. One of them contains a diamond, 999 do not.
He says "I will let you pick 1 of my marbles, and after that, I will put aside 998 of my marbles that do not contain diamonds."
Independent of your choice, he will ALWAYS be able to put aside 998 marbles that do not contain diamonds.
You pick a marble, with a 1/1000 chance of getting the diamond.
Then, he says, "I will now put aside 998 of my marbles that do not contain a diamond."
Now, has your marble suddenly gone from a 1/1000 chance of being a diamond to a 1/2 chance of being a diamond?
Even if, have you picked any of the non-diamonds, this very same thing would have happened?
That's not a similar problem. You have to remove equally sized portions sort of thing or it throws it totally out of whack and it's a different problem.
In our 3 box problem, you have 3 things that are each equal. In your example, you have 1 marble versus 1 marble versus 998 marbles. It's ridiculous.
Originally posted by MaskedMan omg people... this shouldn't be this difficult.
1 - 3 chances.... take away 1.
1 - 2 chances.
That's as simple as it gets. If you have 2 boxes, that's all you have... REGARDLESS of how many are taken away before hand... if you have 2 boxes remaining, that's 2 boxes... the odds are... it's one of the two. That's it.. that's all.
When there are 2 boxes, there is no way that one has 2/3 of chance of being right. Get it? Got it? Good.
LOL so wrong...again, thing about it...
The host KNOW where the prize is...
Let's say you pick A.....
The only case you will win is if it's behind door A....but if it's behind door B or C...you will have it by switching!...as simple as that!
mmm my sig was too big... no more cool animation but hey still! need php?ICQ: 94586959
Originally posted by MaskedMan omg people... this shouldn't be this difficult.
1 - 3 chances.... take away 1.
1 - 2 chances.
That's as simple as it gets. If you have 2 boxes, that's all you have... REGARDLESS of how many are taken away before hand... if you have 2 boxes remaining, that's 2 boxes... the odds are... it's one of the two. That's it.. that's all.
When there are 2 boxes, there is no way that one has 2/3 of chance of being right. Get it? Got it? Good.
MM
fuck man
you dont have 1/2 chances
you have 1/3 and 2/3
the host KNOWS where an empty box is
if he was just arbitrarily choosing a box then it wouldnt matter
but the fact is he is eliminating a KNOWN empty
therefore your new choice gives you the benefit of the revealed empty box
Just remembered something I encountered the other day. For all those who think 50% is the right answer, here's a master's thesis from a guy from my faculty proving you wrong: http://www.philos.rug.nl/~barteld/monty.ps
It's in postscript though, so get a viewer for that (e.g. ghostscript).
In all this back and forth shit, everything has been kind of spread out. I won the ebay auction i was waiting for so i'm going to make one last post before i fuck off to bed for you guys to read and think about.
3 boxes. 1 has a prize in it.
Initially, you have a 1 in 3 chance of picking the correct box.
An incorrect box is then removed, leaving you with 2 boxes. One is the prize. The other is not. Two boxes. 50 percent chance. That makes it 1 in 2. You're then offered the ability to switch. If you choose not to switch, you're left with a 1 in 2 chance. If you elect to switch, you now have a 2 in 4 chance, which is the same as a 1 in 2 chance.
Let me explain.
At first, there are 3 boxes and a total of 3 outcomes each with a 33.3333% chance of occuring.
A box is then removed. The 3 becomes 100% irrelevant. You now have two boxes and a total of 2 possible outcomes. These outcomes each now have a 50% chance of occurring.
You are then offered a switch. This gives each of the 2 existing possible outcomes another possible outcome each, leaving you with a total of 4 possible outcomes. 2 of them will win if you elect to stay. 2 of them will win if you elect to switch giving you a 2 out of 4 chance, i.e., 1 in 2 chance of choosing the correct box. Illustrated below:
Outcome Number 1: If A is right
then the host reveals B
and switching does NOT pay off
OR
Outcome Number 2: the host reveals C
and switching does NOT pay off
Outcome Number 3: If B is right
then the host reveals C
and switching does pay off
Outcome Number 4: If C is right
then the host reveals B
and switching does pay off
2 out of 4 = 1 out of 2.
That should explain it enough.
But to further prove just how irrelevant the third box is, ponder this. You're given 2 boxes. You get to choose one. Then after making your choice, you get told you can change your mind. There are 4 possible outcomes.
The third box is absolutely irrelevant. It serves no purpose whatsoever. This is further illustrated by the fact that NO MATTER WHAT YOU DO, an incorrect box will always be taken away and you'll be left with one right, and one wrong. No matter fucking what! Can't you see how that completely negates the third box?
In all this back and forth shit, everything has been kind of spread out. I won the ebay auction i was waiting for so i'm going to make one last post before i fuck off to bed for you guys to read and think about.
3 boxes. 1 has a prize in it.
Initially, you have a 1 in 3 chance of picking the correct box.
An incorrect box is then removed, leaving you with 2 boxes. One is the prize. The other is not. Two boxes. 50 percent chance. That makes it 1 in 2. You're then offered the ability to switch. If you choose not to switch, you're left with a 1 in 2 chance. If you elect to switch, you now have a 2 in 4 chance, which is the same as a 1 in 2 chance.
Let me explain.
At first, there are 3 boxes and a total of 3 outcomes each with a 33.3333% chance of occuring.
A box is then removed. The 3 becomes 100% irrelevant. You now have two boxes and a total of 2 possible outcomes. These outcomes each now have a 50% chance of occurring.
You are then offered a switch. This gives each of the 2 existing possible outcomes another possible outcome each, leaving you with a total of 4 possible outcomes. 2 of them will win if you elect to stay. 2 of them will win if you elect to switch giving you a 2 out of 4 chance, i.e., 1 in 2 chance of choosing the correct box. Illustrated below:
Outcome Number 1: If A is right
then the host reveals B
and switching does NOT pay off
OR
Outcome Number 2: the host reveals C
and switching does NOT pay off
Outcome Number 3: If B is right
then the host reveals C
and switching does pay off
Outcome Number 4: If C is right
then the host reveals B
and switching does pay off
2 out of 4 = 1 out of 2.
That should explain it enough.
But to further prove just how irrelevant the third box is, ponder this. You're given 2 boxes. You get to choose one. Then after making your choice, you get told you can change your mind. There are 4 possible outcomes.
The third box is absolutely irrelevant. It serves no purpose whatsoever. This is further illustrated by the fact that NO MATTER WHAT YOU DO, an incorrect box will always be taken away and you'll be left with one right, and one wrong. No matter fucking what! Can't you see how that completely negates the third box?
Anyways. I'm off. Bedtime for me.
You're 100% wrong. I know exactly what your mistake is, I've tried to explain it, but I've failed.
I'll blame myself, though, and assume that I haven't explained it clearly enough yet.
So, to quote myself:
Originally posted by punkworld Just remembered something I encountered the other day. For all those who think 50% is the right answer, here's a master's thesis from a guy from my faculty proving you wrong: http://www.philos.rug.nl/~barteld/monty.ps
It's in postscript though, so get a viewer for that (e.g. ghostscript).
the third box is incredibly significant it is the key to this whole thing
if the host chose any box at random, then it wouldnt matter
he doesnt though
he chooses an empty box 100% of the time
when you made your initial guess you chose the box based on a 1/3 assumption
not knowing anything about what your box or any other box contains
now when an empty is taken out of the picture, you are now switching based on a 66% chance because before you didnt know the box the host removed was empty
by switching to the other box, you are now basing your opinion because of the presense of the known empty, not 50/50 chance because you picked that box based on 1/3
im having a hard time explaining this...fuckfukcukcukf
the host KNOWS where an empty box is
if he was just arbitrarily choosing a box then it wouldnt matter
but the fact is he is eliminating a KNOWN empty
therefore your new choice gives you the benefit of the revealed empty box
Ok, let me put this another way...
Let's have an invisible man be at box #2... ok? just standing there.
Now, the person takes a box... invisible man get box #2 and stands there and the announcer opens box #3 to reveal that its' empty.
Ok, no the person is standing there thinking "ok, that was opened, so the other box must have a higher chance of being the one with the prize."
BUT WAIT.
What would the invisible man be thinking?? Huh?? Would he be standing there thinking "ok, I have box #2, and the box #3 was empty, that must mean that the box infront of the other guy has a higher chance of having the prize!"
Wait a sec.... does that mean that BOTH boxes have a 66% chance of having the prize?
Can it possibly be... that just because you're standing with one box in your hands, that it DOESN'T AUTOMATICALLY MEAN THAT THE OTHER BOX HAS TO GET THE EXTRA 33%??? Who is person #1 to decide WHICH box has the higher probabillity?? huh?? What about the poor invisible man behind box #2?? His is automatically the lower probability because person #1 says so??
the third box is incredibly significant it is the key to this whole thing
if the host chose any box at random, then it wouldnt matter
he doesnt though
he chooses an empty box 100% of the time
when you made your initial guess you chose the box based on a 1/3 assumption
not knowing anything about what your box or any other box contains
now when an empty is taken out of the picture, you are now switching based on a 66% chance because before you didnt know the box the host removed was empty
by switching to the other box, you are now basing your opinion because of the presense of the known empty, not 50/50 chance because you picked that box based on 1/3
im having a hard time explaining this...fuckfukcukcukf
I think I will give up!
although the proof has been made...(I even think it's quite easy to figure out) some will just never admit it LOL
mmm my sig was too big... no more cool animation but hey still! need php?ICQ: 94586959
Originally posted by kowntafit You are a fucking moron my friend, it is not interesting and it is not a riddle, you simply do not understand probability.
You also have a flaw in your explanation, at first it was the host that opened the box, then at the end you said it was the participant that opened it. That is not you major misunderstanding but another error.
I don't beleive how stupid some people here are, I guess you don't have to be smart to be a webmaster huh?
there WAS a flaw in my first post but I then corrected it..
there is a 66% chance to win if he switches, not 50%...
if you think it's 50-50, you're wrong... it's pretty simple
Originally posted by MaskedMan I've seen that explanation before, and believe me... it does make sense, but is still incorrect.
Try not to think of it in terms of one person... think of it being two boxes.
Read my post... if there's someone at box #1 and someone at box #2... which one has the higher probability?
You assume that the chances are higher so long as one person is making a choice, but when two people are, you can easily see... the odds are even.
That makes no sense at all. The variables are not the same with two people.
One person selects two boxes (by actually selecting 1 box) while the other person is stuck with only 1 box.
Look at it like this: You are trying to select 1 winning item out of 3 possible choices. If I give you one unknown box and keep two for myself, who has the better odds of winning? I have two chances of winning and you only one.
Adding a fictional third person completely changes the equation.
Originally posted by WarChild That makes no sense at all. The variables are not the same with two people.
One person selects two boxes (by actually selecting 1 box) while the other person is stuck with only 1 box.
Look at it like this: You are trying to select 1 winning item out of 3 possible choices. If I give you one unknown box and keep two for myself, who has the better odds of winning? I have two chances of winning and you only one.
Adding a fictional third person completely changes the equation.
exactly
because say the invisible man was sitting at the other empty box
when the host takes that box from the invisible man he cant just switch boxes
thats not the fucking point
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