Math wonks needed

[slapass]

So if the death rate is 1%. It should be about 1% of known cases as a country starts to get a handle on this. Meaning that known cases is getting close to all cases. Does that make sense? Will be seeing when a country starts to turn the corner as a country’s stats start to match what we know they should be?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

So according to my math, the USA has 75% of their infected people are undiagnosed. Making it likely the virus will continue to spread. Where as S Korea has it under control or China and we are seein their stats match what we would expect.

PS this is useful to know when an economy might be expected to able to reopen.

[slapass]

Ok is China lying? Their deaths are growing and their infected is in serious decline. Or the virus is much more deadly than thought.

[The Porn Nerd]

First, forget math. The data is still being collected and there is so much nonsense in terms of numbers being thrown around that I reject ALL OF IT. For now.

Perhaps in a couple weeks, or a month, when testing is fine tuned and enough kits/tests are administered THEN "perhaps" we will get better, more accurate data to base the math on. Until then? Wild speculation and overall unreliable craziness.

[jsmih]

Plus, math and the death rate alone don't take resource limitations into account. If the hospitals get overloaded, then people who would otherwise survive die due to lack of ventilators, etc.

[Manfap]

The cruise ship gives better figures, as that has been controlled.
712 got it, atm 7 dead.

1%

[slapass]

First, forget math. The data is still being collected and there is so much nonsense in terms of numbers being thrown around that I reject ALL OF IT. For now.

Perhaps in a couple weeks, or a month, when testing is fine tuned and enough kits/tests are administered THEN "perhaps" we will get better, more accurate data to base the math on. Until then? Wild speculation and overall unreliable craziness.

Iceland tested everyone. We are getting reliable stats from them I would think.

[slapass]

Plus, math and the death rate alone don't take resource limitations into account. If the hospitals get overloaded, then people who would otherwise survive die due to lack of ventilators, etc.

Totally understood. But let’s say Italy is showing a 8% death rate. That means they have only detected a small number of the infected. They are not on top of it. Add France and the UK.

the US has 1.5% death rate. We are finding our infected carriers. Tests kits will be out in mass next week all over or so we think. The US could shut this down like South Korea did.

[slapass]

if admitted to icu is rising quicker than new cases, I would think that also flags not enough testing.

[artwilliams]

It depends. Italy has an aging population and left it late for "social distancing". As a result, they have a high death rate since the hospitals of run out of ventilators. As other's have mentioned, it also depends on the amount of testing. CDC Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci is saying on average 1% of all infected.

[slapass]

The cruise ship gives better figures, as that has been controlled.
712 got it, atm 7 dead.

1%

Now it is 8 Dead with 14 still in serious condition.

[Grapesoda]

Now it is 8 Dead with 14 still in serious condition.

are cruise ships typically sand older demographic?

[The Porn Nerd]

You have to understand: Italy is a shithole. It is one of the PIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain) and its' economy has been in the shitter for years and years. Every Italian I met in Amsterdam was a broke-ass, unwashed squatter living in an abandoned building with 15 other Italians fresh off the trains.

Great people, love them Italians, but Italy is one fucked up mess of a country so factor all that into the math.

[digitalfantasies]

You have to understand: Italy is a shithole. It is one of the PIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain) and its' economy has been in the shitter for years and years. Every Italian I met in Amsterdam was a broke-ass, unwashed squatter living in an abandoned building with 15 other Italians fresh off the trains.

Great people, love them Italians, but Italy is one fucked up mess of a country so factor all that into the math.

Italy has one of the highest life expectancies and best healthcare systems in the world. The bad economy, healthcare and health is not the problem there. Just a lot of old fuckers in the infected area

[mce]

China's numbers make sense because you're going to RUN OUT OF PEOPLE to infect after a certain point

Also, there's no HARD DATA on REINFECTION rate for the virus

One thing is scary though (as if the rest weren't terrifying enough), this virus MUTATES like a MOFO: There are already 3 strains and it was just detected in NOVEMBER LAST YEAR.

At this rate, forget about vaccines... Also, all bets are off for an even more SEVERE strain (ie., not just pneumonia but hemmorhagic effects or organ failure)

Just sayin

[bean-aid]

the counting clock of infected vs dead is live on CNN every second. There is likely 20 to 30 times more people infected then those counters count. That makes the percent to die around the flu... described as "this year the flu was really bad".

Lots of people have been describing the flu as really bad this year...

[Manfap]

Now it is 8 Dead with 14 still in serious condition.

Yep, but still a good measure as they're locked down, and probably no kids mainly middle aged and above as Grapesoda pointed out.

[slapass]

are cruise ships typically sand older demographic?

I would think so. I saw the cruise ship name maybe I can look it up.

[slapass]

Using the cruise ship as accurate means we have only found 25% or less of those infected. It is out of control at this point.

[PornDiscounts-V]

Most Americans around me are idiots. Bars still open. People still going to them in a time honored tradition of, "Fuck you, Johnny!"

What do they talk about at the bars? Mostly how liberals are all asshats that hate their President and their country and must be behind this conspiracy. They probably want Marshal law so they can take our guns. What we should be doing is having covid-19 parties like we do with chicken pox! Get this done by June and move on so they cannot use it against Trump come November! Beyah!

It's kind of like watching South Park, only it's real.

[Marshal]

What do they talk about at the bars? Mostly how liberals are all asshats that hate their President and their country and must be behind this conspiracy. They probably want Marshal law so they can take our guns.

I'm a pacifist.