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I also vote for water as the root cause. Energy is to much of a no brainer and there are ways around that one. Fresh water on the other hand is something entirely different and it would be way to easy for one country to fuck another country without even leaving their own borders with water. Big example would be the Colorado river, most of it is in the US, yet it is also very needed in Mexico. Examples like this are all over the globe and what happens when the country upstream decides it needs all of the water or enough to prevent its flow outside of the country (diversion, dams, whatever).
Plus food requires water to produce really and its not like we are up to speed on desalination plants for large enough production to supply inland areas.
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