How many years until ultra-realistic computer animation starts putting porn performers out of work?
 

any estimates?

dunno.. but i find the umemaro 3d works really impressive...

Hopefully soon so they can all big tit models. 34DD

people want to watch real people fuck

pretty soon you will not be able to tell if it's real people or computer generated, it's already getting close...

if thats the case it would of happened already in mainstream where they have much bigger wallets.

2012 ... not far from now ... plain bang-bang porn is dead already so we need smth new (old?!) - porn with a plot ...

I would guess never. As Tony299 already said, people want to watch other people fuck.

You can make a person look real with computer animation, but a lot of it lacks soul, charm and charisma. A programmer would have to be very talented to recreate a scene that was very realistic, wet, hardcore and fooled people 100%. The reason porn works is that guys want to fantasize about fucking these hot girls. When it turns out the girl is just a piece of animation, a lot of the fantasy goes with it.

I'll take that a step further, the day a programmer can 100% create a realistic animation of two people fucking is the day we will already have realistic robot sex dolls, and by that point why would anyone buy porn?

Yea, when realistic robot sex dolls become affordable to the masses, there will be no reason for porn.

For that I say 15 years give or take a few.

even when they do, there will be a market for real. just look at the amateur boom right now with all the gf stuff. there will also be a market for someone selling the idea of someone a guy can put their hands on.

it will be cheaper to hire real models anyway

CG will be absolutely indisinguishable from reality in less than 20 years and much cheaper than shooting live action. Avatar has SAG scared shitless, it's a big topic here in Hollywood

CG is the easy side...

Voice synthesis is a beast that will not be conquered reliably enough to make this happen to quickly, but a few improvements on that dept and we could be seeing some big things.

Good topic! I just PsYChic ChANellED the answer!

From RicksBlog.com

It is not up to me, never was, never will be, but there it is.


Never will be! Computers won't get much faster than 5GHZ, it's already way above normal transistor speeds.

Parallel computers - 1000 PCs all drawing small sections of the same scene, even 1000 times better you could still tell.

The AI Brain to make them realistic acting, 10 years IMO.

And not everyone will be able to afford a realdoll. Who could be fucked?

You do realize with Avatar there still had to be REAL actor in costumes don't you?

yes voice over work will continue long after actors are obsolete.

motion tracking of actual humans will not be necessary soon either as motion data bases get larger and modeling techniques get more sophisticated

Did you ever get a demo going of your Camgirl Video Bot?

Or were you seeking money to pay for the model to shoot?

I'll chip in $200 for Sabby to shoot 100 scenes for you!

it's a lot more than a demo, it's running, and it's 6 figures I was seeking not pocket money to pay a model. Your millions rollin in yet?

The day computers/palmtops take place of real paper.

People may start liking computer animated pornstars more and more, but they are not going to replace the humans anytime soon.

nonsensical argument - can a computer/palmtop be mistaken for a piece of paper? Because in a decade or so you will not be able to tell live action from animation

I don't think it will ever "take the place" of real porn, it has and will continue to hold it's own side by side with real porn however.

Hands down there is no one out here (myself deff included) that wants / is willing to shell out the money needed to make and continue to make the videos.

We've (the 3D Toon niche) have come a LONG way in the past 10 years, and I'm proud to sit here now and know that all I've said about the niche was dead on (even though is some cases in the beginning I was off on the timeline lol)

The two biggest issues, are render engines and render times, everything else really has been solved already EVEN IF it's not being utilized right now.

for many years the software was NEVER made to take FULL advantage of every inch of your computers power and FINALLY that has been fixed, so the render engine issue SHOULD be fixed in 1-2 more years (3 tops) the same SHOULD also be true for the times....

For the 3D Toon 'games' sadly the tech is still behind it's own times, look at Dubcash's "BoneTown" kick ass games BUT due to the render engines avail for gaming (for the novice and semi pros) can not handle the extreme polygon counts for the models (like I create and use) right now my girls do not work with ANY of the engines being used right now.

frame by frame animation point blank sucks right now, and it take months to create (baring any fuckups) a decent 5-10 min FULL MOTION video (I'm talking multi camera angles, multi chars, dialog, and full motion movement here) and even with an army of computers (and overhead) the cost involved just is not worth it to producers like myself.

What people don't seem to remember is unlike our 'real' counterparts, we can't just book a model, grab light rigs and props and go shoot, edit, upload and sell, this stuff take TIME to do (and do right!) so the prices reflect that, and everyone bitches about the prices lol.....

I myself have always been the cheapest producer for the quality I provide (by leaps and bounds really) and people STILL harp about the prices... can you imagine if I spent 1 year making a movie and had to price it out to time / overhead?

bottom line, it's just not cost effective / profitable right now, which is why there is a total lack of ORIGINAL VIDEO CONTENT right now, BUT as I said that WILL change over the next few years

(Original content meaning) people producing content that is NOT made up of the handful of 'loops' avail to use right now, I'm talking original like Pornomation (mad props) and the killer companies in Japan with entire floors of computers rendering 24/7 to make very odd content (imho)

gotta stop rambling here, BUT as one of the founders of this niche I've ALWAYS got lots to say about the niche lol

-Loki-

sound like a very informed opinion from someone in the cutting edge of the CG porn biz, BUT I think you are underestimating your own biz.

As someone who works in mainstream Hollywood for 20 plus years and has worked in cutting edge motion capture labs I can assure you the advances being made in mainstream CG will eventually be applied to porn. In twenty years the line between real life and CG will be blurred and in 100 years the idea of hiring actors will be as archaic as silent films are today.

on a side note, I was talking to another 3D Toon Producer a few hours ago, and we got to talking about videos and why it just sucks right now, he mentioned ppl were harping on him to make videos, and mentioned all the video footage in "StarCraft 2" and how amazing that stuff was, so why could we not do that.

He told me he used a clicker and counted the number of names of people involved with the CG motion video parts, he gave up at 200+ names lol (from 4 continents)

so if 200+ people get together we can make some killer 3D Toon porn movies, but it will cost a few million dollars lmao

-Loki-

don't remember if I mentioned this in my first post, but I'm one of the co-founders of the 3D Toon Porn niche, I created the first 100% 3D Toon paysites "back in the day" as well as launched the first 100% 3D Toon program, I paved the way for all the current programs and artists by getting TGP's and linklists to make 3D Toons a stand alone catagory, and helped educate webmasters that 3D Toons were NOT Anime or Hentai (but they COULD create that style if they chose to)

I'm in no way underestimating this biz, I know exactly what it would take, and it's just not a viable thing right now, but in the next few years that will change, as the tech evolves things just get better.

As far as mainstream goes, CG is huge right now, simply due to budget and companies that have armies of artists creating the stuff, but in this industry there is neither of those, there are literally a small handful of us that produce content, and even if we COULD pool resources together and work together to make the video content we'd still loose our ass on the money end, just to recoup our time spent making it.

That's all I was saying, I've been the most vocal person on 3D Toons since the 90's and for the longest time most people said I was batshit crazy, that this stuff would NEVER sell, no one would pay money for this stuff... years later look at us now lol

I'm just pissed that I closed down my company and paysites when I did, just months before the big 3D Toon boom hit and everyone in it made mad bank, when that time hit I was just a low paid salary worker for a company.

But hey, I still have my moniker from AVN that I wear with the utmost pride....

'Godfather of 3D Toon Porn'

-Loki-

You are leaving one very important thing here - the fans.

Actors become popular when they have enough fans following them. With a huge fanbase, they sort of guarantee certain level of ROI. Fans need to have someone to look up to, they identify themselves with the actors. Fans need to see their stars from time to time. They need to read about their lifes, their ups and downs ... they simply need their celebrities with their real lifes.

How are you gonna recreate this with an animated character?

And with porn its the same, big stars need to show up on shows, in TV, in magazines ... whatever. Thats why the big pornstars get paid more, right? Cause they are stars and have the fans that will buy their product... again, this is not possible to do with animated characters.

And the $$$ are important too, you can get a half decent chick to shoot a porn scene for a few bucks ... creating the animated character and get it to move in a 30 minute scene - that would cost a ton more.

I dont see this happening, unless the society changes a lot. For now and the next 20, 30 or more years, this is not going to happen.

I do agree with you 100%, but not with your timeline, I'm not going to give my timeline cause I've been burned before with stuff like that lol, but I will expound on your comment a bit....

Once mo-cap suits come down in price (and they have every year for the last few years) you will see it applied to porn almost immediately, there will still be the issue of voice actors and syncing but companies like Daz3D have pretty much made a moron proof fix to that, that can be exported to work with damn near any program for final rendering.

others in this thread mention 'soul' and 'life' and THAT stuff is here NOW, it just depends on the producer, do they have an eye, do they pay attention to detail? do they put care into their work OR are they cranking out a virtual assembly line and not utilizing the tools at their disposal.

you can tell, looking at the content out there now, between the lighting, and the facial expressions, with the right lighting effects, and ambient occlusion I can make stuff that you would swear was real.

-Loki-

Never. Many people, myself included, get off on the mere idea of real life people suffering. It's not possible for a cartoon to suffer, and I can safely say that I have never in my life beat off to a drawing.

I'm not saying this WILL happen, but only that it could....

remember this movie? S1m0ne 2002


-Loki-

Loki does great work, if you want to do an 'Eve' series of drawings LMK [email protected]

But never forget, you might not beat off to a drawing but your surfers might / do ;)

and it is indeed possible for a cartoon to suffer, you just need to suspend disbelief when you watch, look at the people (adults and children) who are moved to TEARS at some of Pixars CGI movies, these people CRY when the characters have their moments, happy, sad, etc.

So it's already happening now, millions of people both relate and experience with non real chars in movie after movie. Up, Toystory, A Bugs Life, Finding Nemo, the list goes on and on, and it's BOTH kids AND grown ups!

-Loki-

absolutely nonsensical argument already proven false by Avatar. James Cameron is the star of Avatar. nuff said on that

as for budgets - wrong again, it's much cheaper now to do BIG stuff in CG rather than live action, and as the prices on these technogies and drop and render farms proliferate we will soon be seeing producers go all CG to SAVE money. Agreed though it will be a long time for porn to adopt and catch up but it will happen.

I'm really surprised at the short sightedness of many of you in the porn biz while most here in Hollywood have accepted this paradigm shift as an enevitabilty.

Thanks :) I've always said (and been told) each new render is better then the last, and after all these years I'm amazed myself lol

I'm pretty booked up right now, 'getting back to my roots' sorts of things, plus getting some new "never before seen" stuff ready to release as well in the coming weeks and months, but I saved your addy, feel free to shoot me an email [email protected] and let me know exactly what your looking for and I'll figure out when I can squeeze you in to my workloads.

-Loki-

cant imagine this will happen anytime soon. first we will see 3d and maybe hologram technology at least.

insider info: a movie is being created now, to be released in 2 years that will be very hard to tell if it's live or not. I will bump this thread when it comes out and we will see who still claims that it will never happpen in porn

also Loki no disrespect to you and much respect for everything you have done and are doing...but the terms "3D" and "toons" have no bearing on the future of CG erotica. Unless of course your CG porn is stereoscopic or cartoonish in nature. Like "anime" and "hentai" the term 3D Toons mean very different things now and don't at all descibe where this paradigm is going.

are you fucking kidding me? we're talking about surfers who don't know the difference between 18" rubber dicks and the real thing.

The correct answer is zero years. It's hapening right now in Japan, and with the quantum leaps forward the technology is making and the dropping costs, it will have an impact in the US much sooner than anyone could have dreamed a few years ago.

Well we got the flying car in 2000 so I would say by 2007 we should have this technology.

the correct answer is zero years, because its never going to happen.
real porn with real people will always be the dominant thing in this biz.
virtual porn will get more popular but it won't put any pornstars (who are real pornstars) out of work.
the 3d stuff i see now still looks like ridiculous, expressionless fake shit.
on the other hand traditional hentai porn can and will give me a woody.

One thing about being older is the fact that I've lived through many transitions and evolutions.

Way back in 1976 I bought an super 8mm camera and set out to make movies of my friends surfing. It was a real pain hand splicing the film together and trying to get something worth looking at AND there was no sound. At that time I never dreamed of the digital equipment like I have today that's affordable and better than the Hollywood movie studios were using back in 1976. Look where we are today.

When I first got on the internet I joined a photography forum and the hot topic was film vs digital. There were so many " expert " photographers that kept saying there is no way the digital camera will reach the quality of film. Look where we are today.

Back to the late seventies again and I remember waiting a half hour in a bar to sit down and play this game called pong. Never did I imagine several years later that I could play an epic video game like Modern Warfare in my living room against others online around the world.

What I've learned over the years is never say never and wait patiently for it to happen because so far it has..

CG is evolving at a rapid pace and I have no doubts that the day will come when an actor's image is replaced by CG. A movie like Shriek is a primitive example and Avatar takes another important step in the progression.

I imagine someday a developer will have a library of expressions and mannerisms that they can add to their CG character and that will eliminate the need for actors except for adding to the library.

As far as the surfers having to relate to a real person, two things will probably come into play. The developers will probably keep it a secret whether they are real or fake much like the 30 year old solo girls that pretend to be 19 or the surfers will accept the CG character and then search for their favorite one.

I imagine the day will come when it will all become interactive and the viewer will be able to physically step into a CG environment whether it be a game, adult or social interactive based.

We've come a long way in the last thirty years and going digital was like putting the gas pedal to the floorboard. I'd say the next ten to fifteen years is going to be mind blowing with things like this as well as in the medical field.

Life on other planets, time travel and whatever else may be in our future excites me and I hope I live long enough to see it happen. It's been a fun ride so far :)

hehe brings back memories of Spicy City and Sirens of Sex Drive

huh? not even slightly stylized? What's the point of exact simulation using months of computer time Vs a $1000 per hour actress?

anyone remember what cgi did to the starwars movies?

people want sweaty nasty and down and dirty and they want to see stormtroopers bumping into doors

case closed... :)

^ wtf????

Over time the cost and time consumed will come down.

My first PC cost twice what I paid for the one I have now and had 1/10 the capability.

Some random thoughts regarding this topic ...

* Government health authorities may encourage the use of computer animation in hopes of reducing STDs.

* Allows for scenes that can't be shot legally, such as various sex acts / underage.

* Reuse of old material. While producers have already been doing that for ages via cutting and splicing, computer animation provides the ability to do so more easily, and more importantly, generate completely new scenes.

* Live video chat may be computer animated too with no real person involved and/or less people - ie. one person could run multiple video chats at once, augmenting the computer in tough situations, such as a visitor asking a tough question and/or seeking an action that isn't already pre-programmed.

* Look at past technologies that people said would never replace people, and yet later have.

With all that said, there are many instances in which technology goes full-circle ... there could be a resurgence, or at least a continue niche demand, for real, live actors.

Regardless, it's practically inevitable that much of the material in the future will be computer generated...

For many aspiring performers, the only viable alternative may be to resort to the oldest trade of all, prostitution. At least for a few decades until the mechanical side of robotics catches up to where computer processing is now.

Ron

While there are always people who will be fooled by fake cocks, fake cum, obvious girls who are faking orgasms and stuff like that, in the end it is the fantasy of being with the girl that holds true. Why is someone like Jenna Haze such a big star? In part it is because she is very hot and she does some wild stuff on screen. She is also very good at what she does and puts on a great show. A lot of it is that guys see her doing these things and they want to fuck her. They fantasize about what it would be like to drill her in the ass. If they found out she was all CGI, she still might be popular, but I personally feel she would be nowhere near as popular as she is now.

If they could produce something that looked 100% real and sounded 100% real and kept the fact that it was all CGI a secret, they might pull it off, but I think a lot of porn buyers do so because they want to connect with the chick and dream of fucking her and you can't fuck a cartoon.