Pay Per Sign vs. Revshare vs. Pay Per Click
 

Here's a lil free info for you guys based on the culmination of a few years research and through three revisions of a very detailed and complex set of spreadsheets...

If you are trying to decide what kind of webmaster program to offer compare these results over a three year period. Given:

1) Growth rate of traffic to sites of about 15% per month with the curve increasing and peaking at the end of 36 months. Starting traffic about 3500 per day, after 36 months almost 200,000 per day across how many ever sites.

2) Avg conversion of traffic being 1 in 500

3) Trial converting to full sale of 42% (I realize this is higher than most guys see nowadays but this study backdates and I'm giving you the aggregate).

4) Retention of full monthly members is 86% (in other words you lose 14% of your full members every month).

5) In this study the avg group generated 9% of their traffic internally and did not have to make payouts on those signups.

6) Lastly there are a host of figures for payroll, live feed costs, etc... I'm not going to get into all that as the point here is just to compare in general.


Pay Per Sign ($35 per sign):
Year one: Profit is NEGATIVE ($6300)... You will actually need about $175,000 to cover the float because it takes a good deal of time for profits to add up.

Year two: Profit is $1.4 million

Yeat three: Profit is $5.2 million


Revshare (50%):
Year one: Profit is $5000

Year two: Profit is $1.1 million

Year three: Profit is $4.1 million


Pay Per Click (avg. $0.06 per RAW):
Year One: Profit is $45,000 (again though you need almost $175,000 to cover the losses very early until recurring builds up)

Year Two: Profit is $1.6 million

Year Three: Profit is $5.7 million


I should add that with pay per click you have all kinds of fraud prevention to deal with to keep those numbers.

So anyway, there is some free info for ya... if you have questions about it, hit me up on icq (34826418) or email me ([email protected]).

I'm sure there are plenty of varying stories out there from different people because we all have different experiences but this is an aggregate study on past business and extrapolation via the P&L Excel sheet in its recently done version 3.

here's what you forgot. Big traffic boys will only do revshare when there's no alternative site that does per signup, those cases are a tiny %.

You wanna be big, you gotta do per signup, or you better have something really really special, totally exclusive. Now you gotta figure the extra cost of producing a really special totally exclusive site vs just your run of the mill paysite.


Pay per click is dead. Nobody's going to throw good traffic at a pay per click program.

It does take some major scratch to be a per signup playa.

the best programs are the one's that pay per free trial or $1 a month trial like Pornkings:winkwink:

Those are some interesting numbers. I wish I would've seen those a long time ago.

I have a problem with some of your figures. The biggest one being the 86% retention of monthly members, I don't think retention was that good in 1995....and I know for damn sure no one is retaining that good now.

Also, you're not taking exit consoles into account. If you know how to do it right, you'll get about 15 exit console joins for every 100 joins you get to your site....so add about 15% to the bottom line for that.

Now we need the numbers for the flip side. How does each program treat the affiliates?

in an ideal world............

Well i see where you are coming from.but the only thing is.unless you are a traffic cow you aren't going to make #'s like that.
i only do about a thousand hits a a day.sending that to any pps
program i only made a hundred bucks a day(at best).
now i send all my tiny amount of traffic to a revshare paysite.
with trials,fullmemberships,and 3 month signups.i am averaging
a hundred bucks in signup and over 200 in rebill.and the best part is my rebills keep growing


so to me a rev program is better, I think every thing has its its perks but i think you need to find programs your traffic works at wether it be revshare ppc pps or a buck a email

nice numbers.. to bad that are totally unrealistic.

who me

I didn't post this to talk about how much total money you could make - the point was to compare the styles. Wether you do 1/4 of these numbers or not, the comparisons are scalable.

Exit figures AND upsells were included in those projections/examples.

86% retention OF FULL MONTHLY members, NOT TRIALS. If you aren't getting at least 85% retention of your recurring members now then you need to talk to me because I don't think I have a single consulting client under that figure and haven't for years. So I'm assuming the above post referred to trial numbers? Trial conversions can suck much harder I agree. All that comes down to content and how much.

As for having to have a pay per sign to be a big boy. I agree. Takes much more cash and also illustrates how much the quick buck mentality rules this business. Any examination of numbers will show you that you make more money on a revshare (with a "sticky" sponsor) than you would on pay per sign but you have to be patient to get those figures. You want money now - go pay per sign. You want more money later do revshare.

And lastly... yeah, pay per click is pretty well dead but since this study dates back a few years I chose to include it.

Doesn't anyone READ! AHHHH! lol.

Damn skippy those totals aren't realistic if you:

a) START TODAY and,
b) Don't have a shit ton to invest to start with.

But if you for a minute think that the big boys don't make that much and quite a bit more... then you're dillusional.

As I just said above.. the point of the post was to show the comparison. Showing larger figures better illustrates the differences because the divergence is greater.

revshare rocks

:glugglug

Lens I think we need a bullshit flag smiley.

85%+ in 2002? You're kidding me. I've worked with sites that had exclusive content and sites that charged nickles and dimes for boatloads of content and retention was still max 75-78%.

I think he means members that have already recurred once. "Recurring members". He's saying after they've been billed after their trial that 85% will stay to get billed again. Since the person is satisfied enough to get rebilled once, I don't see that number as being too unreasonable.

:glugglug

i don't think his numbers are unreasonable. My numbers are even better than that. I retain at 52% with $29.95/month. I will be releasing this site soon for partnership. Then you can see personally that his numbers aren't out of line. :glugglug

who gives a shit what things were like in 96-98?

You sound like a drunk war veteran reliving the past.:drinkup :glugglug

i think an internet year is like 3-4 months. so much changes in just a few short months. since i first started this industry has been flipped upside down. everything is different now pretty much.

So his 86% and your 52% are pretty much in line eh? rofl

heh

if the IQ of the ppl on this thread were added up, we would need to get a loan to be in the positive.

You're way off, the formula for growth rate is FV = P(1 + r)^n. With a start value of 3500, rate of 15% for 36 months, traffic would be 536,031.

we started our pay per click business with a dollar and a dream. :)

Mark I know you, so just seeing if I registered right and posting uder your discussion. See ya in vegas!

It worked :-) Cool. off to fuck with other post :-)

My 52% isn't exactly fair though. It is from months of testing strictly with purchased SE traffic with precisely targeted key phrases.

My site is strictly for broadband users who like straight hardcore. So I only targeted them.

My tour is honest. It is not your ordinary, run of the mill paysite. I take a completely different angle. My tour shows them exactly what's inside. So they know what to expect. If they know exactly what they are getting they are more likely to stay. A lot of people cancel because it wasn't what they thought it would be. This also cuts down chargebacks dramatically.

My membership section fucking rocks. Broadband users finally get to see why they pay extra for a faster connection.

Then I tease them with the next updates. These combined things are why I can pull numbers like that.

Sorry if you have a minimal grasp on how to entertain people. Only a few people truly understand it. You obviously don't and that's ok. Do your thing.

I do admit though, when I release my site with a partnership program some webmasters will try to sell my site to dialup users that won't like it because of long downloads and will cancel. Thus dropping my precious conversion % a little. Only time will tell how much.

Mark thanks for the info........

I love that I started an argument between what is realistic and what is not. What really cracks me up is guys getting on here saying how those numbers are unrealistic because the averages today are so much lower. You wanna know why the averages are lower?

Because every free site owner with 20 bucks said, I can make a pay site and they put something up with 20,000 pictures and 15 feeds. Yeah the AVERAGES today suck because you don't have SERIOUS BUSINESS PEOPLE running the vast majority of the sites.

The other problem... you have people trying to keep 1998 retention numbers with a 1998 members area paradigm. You think I sound like an old war veteran? I'm the one trying to tell people to take their members area to 2002 and do dynamic index pages - rotating pages - mining output data to organize feeds by popularity - user discussion forums - run contests... in short GROW WITH THE TIMES.

If you don't have 85% retention of recurring members... then don't cripple yourself by blaming the state of the industry... get your butt in motion and make your site better and you'll get the numbers up there. I have nothing to gain by giving you pie in the sky BS... I have everything to gain by giving my clients realistic expectations so they are pleased with the end result.

98-2000 nichebucks retention was 91%

Several of the top sponsors have said that even they dont see retention over 50% in extreme cases. excluding untouched niches, and exlusive content. This has nothing todo with 1998 mindset.. it has todo with a smart surfer, and realizing how the porn paysite works nowdays. Surfers now know that they can join, cancel and download your members area for 2.95.. so why would they stay for a month?

P-Dogg, I like ya man. You stir the shit well. But let me ask you... do you think any pay site could afford to ppay $35 or more per sign up if they only kept 50% of their recurring (meaning members who stayed on after the trial) members? Run the numbers man. You go backwards in a hurry.

also, these figures stretch back pretty far so of course they will be a little more fruitful.... for you newbie smartasses who don't know who Mark is, then you don't need to post your spewings on this thread because the people who know are laughing at your posts...

yes, by all means critique it, but there's no need to personally attack 'smiley' Mark.... That's all I will say....

Heehee... what I don't get is how I make a post just to share some usefull info that took three years to watch over and people flame on like I'm trying to sell them something. Use the info or don't. Don't make a difference to me.

But hey, I argue back so what does that say. Guess I like to be understood. I must be getting wifely in my old age.

this day an age.. yes. There are 6 possible ways to make extra money on a surfer before they finish the join process.
I wont go into detail on how.. but it is 100% legit, legal, ethical etc..

Im not trying to start shit, but I can say positivly, that some programs can pay $35 pps and still make money after they pay the affiliate.. I, how ever can only afford $30.. Im missing a piece to the puzzle somewhere, but ill find it.

Well there's your problem, if people can download your whole members section within the trial period it's no wonder you don't believe us.

P.S. I thought your lack of intelligence post was extremely ignorant and uncalled for. But I will keep the peace anyways. It's all good.

All the power to ya bro. All I wanna add is that there are people hitting higher retention numbers and just because you or someone else hasn't come in contact with them, don't discount it as unreal. There are as many stories and results in this business as there are flmaing opinions on this board. =]

my bad.. i thought we were on gofuckyourself.com not bradybunchbbs.com

So, kindly name a couple sites retaining recurs at 85%+. Hell just name one.

http://www.sexinfinity.net

sign up and you'll understand.

oliversmoney.com and not sure on MPB, havent looked at those stats lately

i know or cartoon sites retain over 86% due to our exclusive content....

Understand what? How to retain at 52% LOL?

You didn't sign up now did you? Do your homework ignoranus.

You can also see my previous post explaining those numbers.

I dont know why you took my post so personal.. maybe im just a jerk i dunno.. but, I did point out that those numbers are unrealistic with the EXCEPTION of untouched niches(unique) and exclusive content IE quiets site, kman's sites he mentioned etc..

there are 2 classes of sites in my opinion. :2 cents:

That kind of traffic would tend to give a higher than normal retention, no? So you thinkk 52% is good?

that's why I said at the bottom:

"I do admit though, when I release my site with a partnership program some webmasters will try to sell my site to dialup users that won't like it because of long downloads and will cancel. Thus dropping my precious conversion % a little. Only time will tell how much."

I'm sure it won't stay at 52% but I might be able to hold steady at 40% or so. If I get a lot of movie sites sending people with broadband that like mpegs I might keep it at 52%. I will keep you posted. I launch in about 10 days. We're giving away a Yamaha Raptor to kick things off. :thumbsup

and yes, 52% is good no matter how you cut it. The average is 20-25% from what I've heard.

Well I have to ask for permission before I can post details of any client. The only one up right now is Local G and he said no prob. So there's one for ya. Take a look at my client list and do the math otherwise. =]

hilarious little thread.

:glugglug

come on quiet, what are your retention numbers?

on second thought, that's probably why you call yourself quiet. Fuck arguing anymore. No more secrets from me. quiet II is born.:glugglug