So, how low does Dow need to go before SHTF
 

I see people discussing points, etc for Dow, S&P, etc..

How low does it go before shit hits the fan?

What's considered a safe bottom?

at 5000 i'll be happy
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Shit has already hit the fan for a lot of people.

Lets hit the reset button and start over... i'll buy!

Until it gets to ZERO there's still value out there, but obviously that's major OH SHIT time.

Honestly, people need to stop pissing their pants and tell their legislators to stop bailing out the fuckheads that made mistakes over the last few years. Let the market right itself naturally. Losses will occur (that tends to happen, it's called a cycle, it's natural after all). People will learn not to take risks, then the process starts all over again.

Recessions occur naturally. Depressions occur because everyone panics all at the same time.

No doubt... 6K

that's an overly simplistic view and not accurate.

It will stabilize next month...don't panic

7500.....

Yes, you are correct.

A recession is defined as a drop of more than 10% of the GDP for less than one calendar year, whereas a depression is a drop of more than 10% of the GDP for one calendar year or more.

The last time the GDP dropped more than 10% for a one year period or more was the Great Depression where it dropped over 18%.

If one person goes OH SHIT..... or they and a few people go OH SHIT and drastically lower or halt their spending... a recession can happen because there is an interruption in the monetary flow... when everyone goes OH SHIT!! at the same time... when everyone stops spending and effectually halts the flow of money.. there you go... a nice little (or big) depression. Hoarding money is the worst thing that can happen, but it's what everyone wants to naturally do.

Yes, very simplistic, but I don't have all my graphs and charts handy and it always takes weeks to remove the dry erase from my monitor when I start drawing on it.

sounds about right :thumbsup

when it was 13000, 11500 sounded right to many then when it was 11500 they said 10500 is the def. bottom and now look where we are

Nicely said!

you don't need graphs and charts to take a look at history and the causes of the 2 big depressions of the modern era.

you simply can't leave out several crucial factors that cause a great (or long depression) and blame it on people panicing and making a run on the banks.


for instance, during the great depression, unemployment was 25+%, industrtial production dropped about the same, and other issues. the panic contributed but was not the catalyst or the root cause.

we can also look at the causes of the other big depression in history, the long depression, and easily see that it was not simply a panic withdrawel of money by the people

It came at the end of a series of economic setbacks: the speculative nature of financing due to both the greenback which was specie issued to pay for the US Civil War, rampant fraud in the building of the Union Pacific Railway up to 1869 + the Black Friday panic of 1869, the Chicago fire of 1871, the outbreak of equine influenza in 1872, and the demonetization of silver in 1873.