Official predictions here
 

By now most of you should be pretty well informed about the stir Visa's new policies have created. Most of you probably have come to certain conclusions about the policy and how it will affect your business, as well as other's business, including the various Billing Processors. Without going into a lengthy post and listing all of my reasoning, I will simply predict that from 15 November 02 to 15 November 03 at least 60% of the current pay site owners will be out of business and one or more of the "big 3" billing processors will be out of business. Post your official prediction here and feel free to provide your reasoning if you choose too.

By XMas, at the latest, at least two major sponsors will have re-worked their whole trial/pricing structure as a result of this.

Within six months, the Big Three will be much closer in size to the runners-up. One will probably be near going under. However, Glo-Bill and others will end up in the same boat before long due to closed loopholes, and things will even out again.

We will see fewer new paysites. This will mean fewer new ideas, fewer amateurs, fewer personal sites, and, in the long run, a rough time for most of the industry. Complaints about the quality of adult sites in general will go up, and there will be a backlash.

I predict the rise of Pathfinder 3 soon to be followed by Pathfinder4

I have this strange prediction:

-By the end fo this year, 60% to 70% of paysites will be accepting web900, JCB, and online checks only

-Due to their high use (and surely misuse also), by the end of the next year we will be left no other payment options.

-By the end of the next year, the AWF (Adult Webmasters Federation) pays Osama Bin Laden 100M to wipe out VISA, MAstercard and the whole banking structure of the US and the world descends in to chaos :1orglaugh

I love this thread.

I predict...

a) Big 3 will lay off many employees.
b) CCBill will partner with Adult Check.
c) IBill wil leave adult.
d) Scrub and shave will be bad until Feb 2003.

Funny shit lets not forget were 75% of there money comes from..

-CCbill will go out of business. Mainly for continuing to process for the pseudo kiddie porn stuff. That will be their downfall.

-Ibill out of adult

-Paypal out of adult

-More paysites using different price points such as cutting out trial memberships and just having a reasonable monthly feel and not this 40 buck a month shit.

-Heavier emphasis on checks, and furthur development of billing methods such as atm, and pay per minute stuff.

-Alot of paysites will go to the premium AVS's and the AVS's should benefit heavily.

The rich will get richer
The poor will get poorer
The stupid will stay stupid and
the smart and strong will survive and prosper

I think the smart third party billers will move towards helping non US webmasters incorporate here, and other services in that area.

I predict Bush loses big in 2004. In his memoirs he candidly admits that his biggest regret is that didn't do more to help the online porn industry "back in 2002". After someone posts a link to the quote here on GFY, we all (those of us not in jail or working at McDonald's by then) have a good laugh at his expense.

The End.

Paypal will get out of adult.

Rebills will be banned.

The big three will lose some market share - mainly from non US businesses who when you boil this down really are the only ones that are truly affected - everyone else can just whinge about the $750

Not so sure on new forms of payment - you need standards for it to work.

Short term impact to the number of paysites, but I think in the end if you have a quality product this will make it more compelling to open one.

Pay per signup program ratios will go to shit as the scrub gets harder. Might even die altogether.

I think the days of build your own tours where the tour is clearly deceptive to the content of the site are also long gone - ARS a a prime candidate with that one.

Trials will get less and less used, tours will show much more of what is really inside the site.

i predict i am going to get blowjob tonight :Graucho

I agree!

Predictions? You want predictions? I can't even manage to go 8-8 in the damned football pool... I'm not even gonna TOUCH predictions!

:1orglaugh

On second thought... I think that over time it will become harder to join an affiliate program as the paysites begin to figure out which webmasters are sending a higher %age of chargebacks and start weeding them out... the results of which will, of course, eventually end up in a huge database that is shared by all paysite companies.

Just my double shot of disk-shaped coinage :)

i predict that none of the above will happen

The Internet adult industry is a big segment of the economy. The card companies are in business to make money. Once they see their own revenue going down and the revenue of the phone companies and other alternative billing options going up, they'll say, "Holy shit!" and make the rules quite a bit easier to live with.

Oh man.. some of the prediction here are downright funny. Sometimes I have to wonder if some of the posts here are from an alternate reality where things are similar yet way different.

I predict one day I will have a serious impact on every americans income. I will make the rules and one out of every american will have my cd in their cd player...oh yeah its true...damn true

The internet adult industry is a very very very very small part of the economy, and an even smaller part of the card companies revenues and a significant portion of their headaches.

Invest in beer. Today is Sunday -- the only night my town is totally dead -- the only night my town doesn't sell beer until 2am -- this entire country runs on beer -- it doesn't make you sleepy like weed or wine -- doesn't make you sick like liquor -- it's cheap -- no bad side effects -- no lung cancer -- beer solves all problems! Stomache ache? Drink beer -- tired? drink beer -- bored? drink beer -- horny? drink beer... too smart? drink beer. too stupid? drink beer...

I'm going to make a killing in the stock market.

Anyway I'm moving to New York ASAP...

Bump.

Burp.

When do they stop selling beer in New York? 4am... Every night, right?

I think that is correct. I think they resume at 6am.

Then you'll get your ass booted off the muppet show because of your history in porn!

I predict a few new players will rise...they will have custom content, unique content and a fistfull of money behind them....

revshare programs will come back into vogue with trials slowing being phased out...I also forsee the "big 3" processors losing marketshare...

Adult is a small percentage of visa's income....it was a great way for them to make some money and grow the internet, but now with mainstream finally having learned a lesson and getting more serious about good e-commerce, porn will be even a smaller percentage of transactions. I also think more porn sites will spread into other areas of content (already happening on a small scale). Most of the current players will be just fine as they've probably had contigency plans on the burner for awhile now.

I doubt recurring will go away but Visa will get stricter with regards to changing how the recurring charge is disclaimed (I can't see AOL or other online servcies giving up the auto rebill model any time soon....I also forsee AOL finally breaking down and adding "Adult Zones" to help them become more profitable (of course it'll be the boring "glamour" crap that is already produced en masse on the news stands).

While some see this as doom and gloom, I look at it as just the nature of doing business and those who run clean companies will still make money and have very little problem. I'm worried though more about corporate sabotage in the adult business. If your competition is hovering around that 1% mark, you send a couple of your programmers over to join their program and chargeback....the dirty tricks amongst competitors will get dirtier.....

A few predictions from a newbie.

More free porn :-D

If rebills stop, then I see more multi month pricing, with no rebills. My best seller is 3 months for 21 bucks. Of course, im a niche.

fuck that shit man....that was AVN'x black film of the year...give me the money over the notoriety.I plan on merging porn and music the way it should have been done..

The rich will get richer
The poor will get poorer
The stupid will stay stupid and
the smart and strong will survive and prosper

-----------------------

Here, here!

Like American Express ? LOL

My official prediction...by the end of 2002 theking will stop fucking his dead daddy in the asshole.

prediction #2 his dead daddy will rise from the grave and ask his son theking why he stopped.

I had a small retail biz for 6 years.. I accepted only checks and cash the whole time.. It did not hurt my store by not having
charge cards. I think the key was I was small and UNIQUE !

I know online is alot different than a public store but I think surfers would learn to adapt if all the cc companies dropped the adult industry like AMEX did !

:)

welcome to my world! altered reality is the best :glugglug

I predict in 2003 there won't be any horny surfers any more...

The market is still growing, a few guys will have the technologies for billing (alternative billing?), some have hot content, a few others will have traffic, there will be plenty of money being made.

Like it was mentioned above: The rich will get richer. Some players will leave, a few new players (euro/asian?) will appear or become globally active.

One of the new players in online porn: PLAYBOY.

Call Miss Cleo you morons!

:thumbsup

e) More Merchant Accounts will be visible for midsize websites (over 10k under 20k(
f) Mastercard will pull along with Visa
g) Overseas Billers will have to licensed and can only set up merchants in their country

I predict that THIS year Christmas will be on...on...*straining mental and psychic abilities*...on...........

December 25th!!!!!!

I predict my small amateur site is going to outdo it's initial 3rd quarter forecasts due to the other amatuers not starting thier sites because of the extra costs. I do predict having to pay this even if I go through Globill eventually if not now, and have the funds to cover it.

One of the Big Three will be out of business by Jan 2003. Bankruptcy protection will keep them going a little longer than they should be operating. Restructuring will fail.

Paypal will continue to process porn.

Debit cards will become the new way to go VERY SOON.