Is this business getting better or worse?
 

I continue to buy adult key-in domains, and I am paying multi-year revenues up front, and I wonder if I'm overpaying. The business looks very uncertain right now, what with increased competition, looming obscenity prosecutions, tons of free porn, and all kinds of other issues.

The more I read the boards and talk to the players, the more I wonder...

Thoughts?

I think the shake out period is beginning.


I think in general the adult stuff has been very stale the last three years. Theres nothing new and surfers that have been around awhile are much smarter and know how to find free porn.

Way way to much free porn. And very hard stuff with no warning page etc.

Im shocked that some of these big companies put penetration and stuff on their free tours.

Most of the paysites run by these large programs are so cookie cutter and the member areas are shit.

I think eventually there will be a "killer app". Something along the lines of a virtual reality type thing where the surfer can feel like they are actually fucking the girl. Charge 100 bucks for a half hour of that.

By then though, most of the adult stuff will be controlled by a few companies.

But on the positive, the internet aint going anywhere, .com aint going anywhere, and there will always be some means to charge people.

Today's example:

A list seller. 3500 uniques per day. Roughly $6k per month in revenue. Much room for improvement on affiliates and positioning.

Selling price, with straight face:

3 yrs. revenue: About $220k.

WTF?

Meanwhile, bank on planet earth, picked up a super name today for $25k, only 200 uniques per day, but excellent niche. Dropped from $40k in the last month.

Repeat said stories half dozens times.

Something in the air? Free destroyed every business on the web 'cept ebay and porn.

Will ebay stand while porn falls?

The only guy that makes sense might be Josh, who wants $1 million for FreePorn.com.

Dig that motha' fuckin' contradiction:Graucho

Yes you are overpaying.

Porn in 3 years from now will be generating 100 times more revenue and there are a few reasons for that.

More people will be online

Many people don't join sites because they have slow connections in 3 years I think most people will have DSL or some type of high speed connection meaning that movie sites will convert 100 times better.

As time goes on surfers are now demanding videos not just photos, so TGP's posters will have to start posting more videos to be able to get hits meaning many wont be able to keep up with the BW bill, not because TGP's don't convert just because some posters don't know shit about marketing.

Porn will continue to grow regardless of VISA or other problems its here to stay.

The game is like in any industry to be able to hang in even when times might not be that good and the ones who do never regret it.

I don't really know. I started in March and am doing much better now than I did then!

Well the big porn players are loving every minute of this VISA crap, I"m sure. Lots of competition being eliminated in short order. Lovely.

Dombuyer, do you buy gambling domains as well? Just curious if good gambling domains can still get a half decent price.

Well said, the stongest will survive... I'm about to launch my 4th site :thumbsup

Yeah until you get TMF'ucked by VISA on a cold winter night.

Not really. I stick to adult...

I don't think adult's going south, but at some point real soon, all those ripped images floating about, all the free circle jerks, the software that slots and organizes super high end newsgroup images, the Napster-ization of porn....

...all this will lead to a mass exodus of people away from PAYING.

People only pay because they have been trained to pay. There is a mass experiment going on in which people are being trained NOT to pay.

I'm not saying this is the prevalent scenario now, but there are massive stormclouds on the horizon, as well all know.

Napster brought 20 million people online to download music for.... FREE. So it's not enough anymore to say, as people in this business do, that "more and more people are coming online". Doesn't mean a thing if they see a landscape where people don't pay...

My :2 cents:

I agree with you... :(

There will probably always be money to be made but you must also have a good business sense too!

Remember someone needs to pay for the BW and for those of us who know the truth we all know these guys barely make it in these days, soonerr or later the biggest CJ will be google full of broken links to so called free sites.

Not many will understand this now but in 12 months from now you will know exactly what im talking about

EscortBiz, what a coincidence.

Send me an email at stevenmarks...at....hotmail.com

Whoa, like an internet porn graveyard.

ok i emailed you

If you look, you can find a post just like yours from one year ago, one from two years ago, three years ago, and so on.

Free sites have been one year away from death since 1997. It's been a long long year.

Yes you are right and tons and tons have vanished and the newbies dont last for long we all know that

I know its hard to face facts

Is it hard to face the fact is you are saying the same thing today as people were saying 5 years ago, and the big free sites are bigger than ever? :)

the big guys are here to stay no question about that but you will see a decline on those turnkey adult sites and new comers and shit.

So many who made a few bucks from their site just being on Google, with the recent update they made some just fuckin died

Agreed. As the barriers to entry go up, you will see less and less newbies getting in. However, I think that the big sites, free or pay, will find a way to adapt. The smart ones at least.

All I have are free sites small 1's as to traffic and I do ok... Am happy...and have been for some years now.