DVDs are dead.. long live DVDs
 

From my Fight the Blog blog:http://www.xbiz.com/blogs/blog.php?b...id=89075#89075

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DVDs are dead, long live DVDs

There has been alot of talk about how DVD's will be completely dead in another year or so, replaced by digital video, etc.

While DVD's sales are down in general, I think you need to look deeper to see if online sales are up to make up the difference.

Judging by the gripes of affiliates and paysite owners, they are feeling a decline in sales just as much as the DVD side.

I see the issue that what will be down, is the concept of the full length DVD. The fast forward button on the VCR, Tivo, YouTube, etc have proven how consumers attention span has shrunk.

What I see is the potential for DVD to make a "cum back" by releasing compilation DVDs.

Look at record albums on the BillBoad Top List, for a while it was compilation CD's. The current top 100 list at billboard has 3 compilation CD's of the top 10.

Look at stores like iTunes that allow people to purchase a single track, rather than buying the whole album.

DVD's are tangible items. You can replay the content over and over.

With digital video, its in streaming or downloadable format.

The streaming video you watch one time, and can't replay. Downloadable content is good (as long as not locked up by DRM) and can have replay value, but does require downloading large files and then ultimately burning them to DVD for storage and playback.

If the consumer wants variety of video as clips, rather than a full length feature porn movie.... give it to them. Release a DVD that has the content they want.

Some would argue that shooting gonzo clips will take away from 'the art'. It's porn, the art is in how the climax comes.

As video companies move towards internet distribution, don't forget about DVD's. Offer members/consumers of the internet paysite, the ability to purchase a DVD.. but this time, don't charge $24.95/DVD.

It doesn't cost much to replicate DVD's on-demand. Create compilation versions that are clip based, and have the tangiblness to hold onto the DVD (as well as other things) in hand, rather than just as a bunch of digital files.

Alot of internet-based websites were releasing DVD's this last year and more of them were winning AVN awards.

How interesting it is to see DVD/video folks look towards the internet, while internet folks are looking towards DVD.

Fight the convergence crossroads!

DVD's wont be dead for a long time, but I think the same way people are losing interest in making vast collections of hollywood movies, people would rather just have stuff available when they want it, whether they have to pay a bit or not. Not being the preferred method of delivery tho ;)

agreed. i think that a twist for some streaming DVD site to do to be competitive and differentiating themselves, is maybe after you have watched a streaming clip, that you can go back to watch it for the lifetime of the website.

This would be the equivalent of what you are saying in watching whenever they wanted and have a similar "tangibleness" of having the content viewable again without having to pay again.

Then again, you could make the argument of why would anyone want to see the same content again... i certainly don't like to re-watch a movie that i already saw, and there is constantly new clips, new actresses, new situations, etc that come.


Fight the knowing what consumers really want!

People that try to proclaim the age of digital downloading is here and that physical media is dead are people that live in a bubble far away from REAL people.

First of all 1/3 of American hosueholds have no internet access. Many because they simply don't want it. Some it's because they can't afford it. And some is because their only option is dial-up or satelite and they rather not put up with all the BS that is involved with those connections.

Secondly 1/6 of all American households only hav dial-up access. This is not suitable for digital downloading. The most you could ever hope to download is 16 GB a month. And that's using your conenction for nohting more than downloading 24/7.

Last time I checked my math that's 50% of all American households. I doubt all the media companies are going to give up on 50% of potential customers. now some may say that in the near future everyone wil have broadband. maybe in other countries, not in the US. That's not how we work. Money is the most iomportant factor not that people that live in rural areas have broadband access. People that have dial-up andmnay that have no internet access( but want it ) live in rural areas where ISP have abosolutely ZERO intention of building out broadband access in the near future if ever. So that 50% figure isn't going down much anytime soon.

Of the 50% that do have broadband half of those have 2 Mbps connection or less. Some by choice, most because that's all their ISP offers. downloading a HD movie from itunes or XBOX live which is only 720p not 1080p like blu-ray or HD-DVD would take 8 hours over a 2 Mbps connection. Who is honestly going to see that as an alternative to renting a DVD at the video store?

Downloading or streaming HD content is going to take at minimum a 10 Mbps connection and maybe 5% of American households have that. maybe in 5 year DVD iwht be dead and replaced by blu-ray as the prices on players and disc drop. Digital downlaoding becoming a real threat to physical media, maybe starting in 2020.

The only thing I remember dying a quick death was 8-Track Tapes! Cassettes came on the scene and in no time at all, you couldn't find 8_tracks. But cassettes were also supposed to be the LP killer, and that never really happened. When CD's came out, they were going to immediately kill album and cassette sales, but that took a while.

HD TV sales are still small compared to the overall market as many people are still sitting back and waiting for price drops, and are comfortable with their tube TV's. Those are the people that will still rent normal DVD's.

My daughter works part-time at Blockbuster, and HD-DVD and Bluray rentals only make up a few percent of their rentals still. As long as there is money in DVD, it will be around.

Older people, who are a large segment of the DVD market, will also never download a video.

Carol xoxoxo

:2 cents:

Guess you don't remember 4 track tapes or video discs.

Compilation DvD's? they been doing that for years and years now...

I do, but they never took off to begin with. I only knew one person who had a laser disc. I was just talking about things that were popular in their day.

Carol xoxoxo

One side of the argument is

1. Internet speeds will get better so you can stream DVD / HD quality with out buffering etc. (Technology is their but still not economical)

2. TV's will have access to Internet just the way they do for broadcast / cable now. Any one saw the new AppleTV ?

The other side of the arugment is

1. Poeple will move from DVD to HD DVD and from their they will move to 4K DVD and the netconnection cant keep up so they are still going to buy DVD

2. People like to keep a collection of DVD.....but then again why do you want to keep a collection if you know that you have access to 3000 movies for 9.95$/Month (eg; videobox.com)

Jay

PS: I sell VOD software

Also remember that a large percentage of normal people are packrats and hoarders by nature too.

are we talking quadrophilia here ??:winkwink:

4 tracks were quite popular in their day. I knew one person for sure that had a laser disc player, so there were at least two of those sold.

You mean the album by The Who? Quadrophenia.

That would have been in 8 track, and came in quadraphonic (which I had in my van). Was pretty cool for the day, and I did not know many people that actually had that.

comps killed the feature - why pay $40 for a 80 min vivid feature with 5 sex scenes when you can buy a 4 hr vivid comp with all the vivid girls for $20? - why buy either one now when sooo much porn is available for free thanks to the tube sites? it's all fucked - this industry is consuming itself and technology is the sickness - wake-up

I totally disagree.. my sales have risen steady last 12 months and are the best they have ever been... even over holidays. People saying this are people who produce crap or have no idea how to retail.

just my :2 cents:

no way, DVDs will be around for a long time.

i know a lot of people who still regularly buy DVD movies. i still find it wierd to download and watch a movie (that is not porn) on my computer. i have a lot invested in audio and video at my place and i much rather like spending a few extra bucks for quality then download poor quality online

Here is the real problem. As DVD sales do decline the idiots who run the companies spend MORE money on packaging and they do not try to adjust their replication and printing numbers. If before you were moving 3000 out the door and today you are only moving 800, why are you still making 5000 units? BAD BUSINESS.

Most of the people on the DVD side don't have a real understanding of business anyway. Yea, a few do, but not many. It's monkey see, monkey do in the industry and if Zero Tolerance comes out with a new box idea, everyone will copy even if it costs more money to make.

So while DVD sales are going down a bit, DVDs are not going anywhere for a while. YES many companies are going to go under soon but that is just because they don't know how to run a business.

I good business man will make huge profits off of adult DVDs for years to come.

The first time I saw CDs being sold in record stores was in 1984. By 1988 you couldn't find a LP anywhere. Of course cassettes hung on much longer.

but when they want a new TV it's going to be a HDTV. My local wal-mart, which is the nearest palce you are going to get a TV for 60 miles without going to another wal-mart, only has a few models of the old SDTVs. 85% of what they have for sale is HDTVs. They have nothing over 27 inches in SDTV and very few models to choose from. Also more and more manufactures are no longer producing CRT TVs. When I get a new TV it's prety much going to be a HDTV, whether I want one or not.

SDTV are getting replaced at a rate of about 15%-20% a year. So it won't be long before HDTV take over the majority of people's homes.

Here's the real story... - retail stores closing after dismal holiday - not just a few - whole chains

Hmmmm...sounds like the Adult Internet :1orglaugh:1orglaugh

Carol xoxoxo

yes they have, but the focus is still making full length features that have only 3-5 scenes in them.

when you get a dvd from folks like WorldWideContent, you chop up the file into segments, classify them as "bj", "threesome", etc and put them up.

as a consumer, they want specific things at specific times.

so my point is all DVDs produced, with exception a few blockbuster productions, to be compilations as thats what consumers want.

Fight the chopping!

i always love your posts FTP ;]

LOL, thanx. I think GatorB is giving me a run for the money with his excellent posts.



Fight the post race!

true, but the store is almost like 100% DVD. The new high end DVD formats are like the first introduction of DVD.. .expensive DVD players, few titles... a few more years for the new formats to have wider market adoption.

You can buy a DVD player at walmart for $25. Remember when DVD players first came out? About the same price points as the blu/HD players are now.

Mainstream will have the current DVD format around for awhile.

The issue is more specific to adult.. because there is alot of Tube-like sites and free porn, and also the change in porn-consumer behaviour.. where i think they are less likely to be collectors of full length DVD.

Video companies who produce DVDs are looking to move to the web. Chatted with one at internext that was 100% DVD sales for 10 years, and now wants to move their catalog to the web, and eventually shoot for web only.

I told them, the DVD format is not dead, that you can offer DVDs from your website. Alot of internet companies are offering DVD content of their website content now.

The members of a paysite can then purchase a compilation DVD that allows them to view the content on their bigger TVs..sitting on a coach (with tissues) then in front of their computer.

The point of my post was to not overlook DVDs as a distribution medium. The Video side has long used the DVD format and are feeling the pain of declining sales, but its not the format that is the problem, its the content thats being presented.

Internet side has kept pace with consumer wants with VOD, clips, etc... whereas the video side has not (hence the landrush for many of them to come fully to the internet side).

With more competition of content coming from free-based sides, online business owners need to focus on what brick-and-mortar companies have known for years.. know thy customer.

The members are looked as being faceless customers, but with technology, you can do better profiling and understanding of customers than any brick and mortar store.

You can code your site to know what types of content a member likes, what he responds to. You can ask them if they would like X because you noticed they liked Y.

This takes a little bit more work than drawing out money from the bank from membership deposits, but knowing what the customer wants and being able to deliver it is something that is overlooked many times.

The porn consumer behaviour seems to have spoken.. they want variety, they want lower prices, but they will still buy, just not the same package that is being pitched to them now.


Fight the shrink wrapping!

Fight the bump!