US going into recession
 

Just heard that on the news from Goldman Sachs



if you have any money in equities ..... I would cash out on all stocks till we hit the bottom!

In my own openion though.. we've already been in recession for about 3 months now!

It looks like it will be a recession ... Tough job for the next president.

Im glad Bush did such a great job. It would have been scary if we had someone else running the show for the past 8 years. Now if we can only get Mccain or Guliani in there, we should be safe for the next 8. :Oh crap

Bush did a pretty good job stock market wise if you think about it.

Mainly due to his very hardwork bringing underlying commodities like Oil up to record highs :)

hehe :1orglaugh

bush fucked it all up... hopefully the next president can clean up the mess.

a good start would be to stop invading random countries and use those money to pay off some debts instead so the fucking USD can be worth something again.

yes, its clear this is happening

$100 oil, housing still sucking balls, unemployment creeping up, consumer debt at all time high, dollar taking a beating and inflation pressure

bound to happen.

when Hillary gets in there she will fix all that stuff, after all she has Bill to help her, in between getting blowed by the interns.

U just figured that out?

This is going to be a fun year indeed.

No, it's not a recession, and it doesn't look like there's going to be a recession.

The guys on cnbc have to say something, so they always bring on bulls and bears to discuss things. It doesn't mean anything....this is actually a GREAT time to buy equities, with the market being as low as it is (1391 last I checked for the S&P)

actualy it looks like its gonna be but as far sa I know your present goverment is preparing some tax system modification which could allow people to buy more and start up the econy again...
2008 is goona be hard 1 - specialy for content producers like me ....:pimp

To buy equities in the face of worst housing recession since 1930, 100 Usd oil, high inflation and possible implosion of few financial companies is really stupid. Only recession proof stocks and few other exceptions from S&P could be good ones.
Where is the common sense?
Any bounce will be only because of rate cut pump rally, exactly as it happened in December and will be given back.
I will bump this thread in few months only to show stupidity of your call

The housing market help seal the final nail in the coffin...

I told you so. Maybe there will be some bounce on the way to the recession, but any gains will be given back. This week was one big bloodbath and I am kicking on my head, why I covered some of my put options and why I didnt sell some of my stocks and bought them much cheaper today.

Yesterday and today decline isnt mainly about recession, its mainly stupid market who finally figured out, that two of the biggest monoline insurers (ABK, MBI) are going under...as their every other competitor already did it.

these two companies, with 1.5 bilion market cap, insure around 1.2 trilion of debt.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MBI&...=on&z=m&q=l&c=
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ABK&t=3m

"Losing the AAA stamp would cripple the bond insurers and throw doubt on the ratings of $2.4 trillion of debt the industry guarantees, causing as much as $200 billion in losses, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."

Their current AAA ratings are biggest joke ever and once they are done (MBI, ABK) and bankrupt, you can talk about immediate 100$ billion write-off in financial industry.
That day wont be great for any stock.

Well... whatever You guys wanna call it, from a greater perspective it's got more to do with globalisation than bad politics...

These things were happening already when Bush junior got elected the first time, he and his puppet masters have known that all along.

Walmart as a company has knowingly profited from this directly for years by now... I don't think things will take a turn for the better with changes in national politics.

I can tell You all we here in Sweden have only seen marginal turns for something better even with a 180 degree turn in national politics the last few years.
(We have a highly right wing government at the moment, with a socialist government preceeding it (for over a decade) a few years ago..)

Both wings blame eachother for the downturns in the "ecomony" (Idiocracy, the movie), but reality is western world countries are affected by to us negative effects of globalisation. :2 cents:

Going? please, we've been in it.

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

http://fla.fg-a.com/usaCa.gif

March is going to be the peak for the set backs (ARMS)

Business has never been so good, i'm a recession enthusiast. :)

I should mention that ABK was downgraded to AA just before close on friday. I fully stand behind what I stated here, the downgrade is just start of future 100$ billion write-off in financial industry. and everyone knows that ABK, MBI insurance is worth shit.

You better read this article to understand what whole game is about.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...011803592.html

"Everyone thinks they're looking at the cliff over Armageddon," said Ed Rombach, senior derivatives analyst at Thomson Financial. "If you think the write-downs have been bad so far, the next write-downs could be twice as big."

Yup Unemployment is down awright, we got Educated Professionals working at Starbucks and Walmart or serving fast food.

Definatly a step forward...

great prediction :1orglaugh

i soon will get even less euros for my earned dollars :(

Every time everyone complains about the economy I get excited because that's when I start making serious $$$.

have t osay it looks like a nice day to do some buying


:winkwink:

There's no real money left in online porn anymore for most people. And now there's going to be even less when people are not spending anything for memberships.

Slow down- yes. Recession- not yet.

I was listening to an analyst say that the magic number seems to be 26. Meaning that recessions have always been a natural part of the economy, every 6-8 years or so. But when you look at the numbers, the market generally falls at least 26% on average when we hit the r word. The Dow is about 15% off its high right now, so if we truly are getting ready for recession, then it's actually going to get worse. Unemployment is still historically low, also.

I don't think Bush's stimulus package will do squat, though. We'll still be bombarded with oil/gas prices, foreclosure horror stories, and interest rate speculation every time we turn the tv on.

The sky IS falling.

OIL prices :

2001 : $22.00
2008 : $98.00

enough said.

US has been in the shitter for a while now. The money guys are finally having the balls to say it. It will take another 3 months before the government admits it.

I'm not sure what you mean. I wasn't implying that oil prices are fine. I meant I don't think the stimulus plan will be enough to stop the slide.

Again? :upsidedow

The U.S. Federal Reserve cut two key interest rates by 0.75 percent to 3.5 percent -- but Wall Street still saw heavy losses Tuesday when it opened after two days of global share turmoil. In early trading the Dow Jones was down by more than 400 points while the Nadaq fell by 5 percent

so here is my bump Lenny, another bad call you made, you should be called Cramereconomist :1orglaugh

Options traders must be loving it right now. There's so much fucking money to be made right now if you have the money to invest and know how to invest in all kinds of markets. You can usually make faster returns in a down market because they go down so much faster than they go up.

R.i.p. :)