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Makaveli 11-07-2007 01:57 AM

Texas Holdem Poker Players. Question...
 
2-5 no limit game I was at tonight.

I raise to $30 in middle position with 99, nothing but limpers when it comes to me. There is one idiot at the table who hasn't come in for less the $30 preflop with cock soup. Never showed a decent hand besides pocket kings once. So it comes to him, he goes $60. I know he has fuck all and when it comes to me a move all in for $200 thinking he can't call with his crap I know he's holding. Well to make a long story short I was wrong, this fucking idiot calls me and turns over Q-10 of hearts and spikes a 10. Now let me ask you, would you pay $200 to play Q-10 aka the gay waiter?

Fucking I'm spinning right now. :mad: I called him a fucking goof and left the table.

Makaveli 11-07-2007 02:02 AM

I'm really starting to think that poker is over run with fucking clowns and I should try to find a cheaper hobby, I keep getting grabbed by these donks. I make good plays and most time have the best hand but alot of times end up going WTF just happened here?

D 11-07-2007 02:26 AM

You can't beat lucky. :2 cents:

Vitasoy 11-07-2007 03:01 AM

He got lucky.. maybe he has the money to burn.

UncutBucksMike 11-07-2007 03:06 AM

Hell no wouldnt have called I hate those damn queens.:)

Hugs,
Jen

dig420 11-07-2007 03:09 AM

people get lucky too fucking much online. He made a donkey call, but donkeys get paid online almost without fail. When I'm all in against a lower pair pre-flop I'm holding my fucking breath, because I swear about half the time they spike a set on the river.

VicD 11-07-2007 03:45 AM

With all-inn you never know where you will end up...

Gasper 11-07-2007 03:46 AM

I decided to stop playing poker for a few months. You just can't win. Too much luck involved in this game

RedShoe 11-07-2007 03:57 AM

I'm so glad I never got into gambling.

The terminology alone makes you sound gay. I'm thoroughly convinced the gays came up with Texas Hold'em lingo.

sexykat 11-07-2007 04:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Makaveli (Post 13342256)
you pay $200 to play Q-10 aka the gay waiter?

Gay waiter is Q3 :error

XMaster 11-07-2007 04:18 AM

All-in with 99 is crazy as well :)

mn 11-07-2007 05:22 AM

coinflip - but 99 is the winner in the long run...

i would never go all in though not even against the worst fish. just wait for a better hand.

DEA - banned for life 11-07-2007 06:02 AM

what this comes down to is ..bankroll..or what your willing to lose.

if your bankroll is let say $500 bucks..then maybe you wouldnt call with q10...
then again if your bankroll is $50,000 then you probably will.

what im saying is people really make calls like that based on what there willing to lose.

so..depending on what my bankroll was would determine if i was going to call or not.

sysk 11-07-2007 06:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DEA (Post 13342698)
what this comes down to is ..bankroll..or what your willing to lose.

if your bankroll is let say $500 bucks..then maybe you wouldnt call with q10...
then again if your bankroll is $50,000 then you probably will.

what im saying is people really make calls like that based on what there willing to lose.

so..depending on what my bankroll was would determine if i was going to call or not.

in fact, bankroll shouldn't come into question when you are playing a cash game (which I think it was). it shouldn't influence the way you play at the table.

however, your bankroll dictates which stakes you should play on. the general rule is you shouldn't bring over then 10% of your bankroll at the time.

Nydahl 11-07-2007 06:34 AM

True is that idiots like this 1 must be played with pantience.You have to beat them when you got some nice hand - I can hardly tell that wayne gretzky is that THE right hand.
So I am sorry to tell but I think you can blame just yourself - even I know how hard is to stand the clowns like this

RawAlex 11-07-2007 08:56 AM

In theory, going all in with 9-9 against a strong caller isn't the best postition to be in. Specifically, there are way too many hands out there that can beat you, even if they aren't current paired up. There are 20 overcards in the deck, and if he is holding any 1 of them, he has 3 direct outs already. If he is holding 2 of them, he has 6 direct outs to start. Then look at things like straights, flushes, and a whole bunch of other stuff. Essentially, preflop he had probably a better hand than you (very close) and even post flop he still had about a 30% chance that one of his cards would come up, and he only needed one or the other (not both) to do it.

(6 out of 45 = 13% chance that any card that comes up is the one he wants, rounded up to 15 to allow for things like straights and flushes, etc. 15% over two cards = 30%).

That you got into that position preflop means that he had a pretty good chance for hitting one of those two cards ( 5 x 15% or 75%) and even a little extra chance with 5 cards to fill in a straight or a flush.

(Also, for your info, you have a 2 in 48 chance of seeing another 9, or about 4% x 5 cards gives you only about a 20% chance to improve your hand from where you start)

If I read it correctly, you likely should have called him at 60 and seen the flop - any over cards would have seriously limited your desire to stay in the pot at that point.

NETbilling 11-07-2007 09:39 AM

Why would you go all in with pocket nines? Just because you thought he would not call? Bad move. You beat yourself.

Mitch

fuzebox 11-07-2007 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RawAlex (Post 13343122)
...cut for length...

This is more or less along the lines of what how I see it too... I mean you've just got a pair of 9s, it doesn't really matter what he had, just what he thought you had, and it looks like he made the right call. Overcards vs. low pair is a classic coin toss, and in this situation it doesn't really matter if he had QT or AK, same odds to you.

It really gets on my nerves when so-called poker experts get all mad saying they "should have" won and they "played right"... If statements like that were true all the time, what the hell would be the point of playing poker to start with?

RP Fade 11-07-2007 09:58 AM

Online poker is full of bad-beats, I can tell you some stories...

Did you go all-in $200 pre-flop and he called you with Q-10? And was his Q-10 suited?

You played it ok but there are alot of people who would call, maybe not with Q-10 but there are 5 over cards that can beat you, and he had 2 of them and landed one, not including a possible straight or flush draw if he was suited.

I maybe wouldn't have gone all-in when he raised to $60, I would have called to see the flop :2 cents:

tehHinjew 11-07-2007 09:58 AM

200$ is nothing

NETbilling 11-07-2007 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fuzebox (Post 13343305)
This is more or less along the lines of what how I see it too... I mean you've just got a pair of 9s, it doesn't really matter what he had, just what he thought you had, and it looks like he made the right call. Overcards vs. low pair is a classic coin toss, and in this situation it doesn't really matter if he had QT or AK, same odds to you.

It really gets on my nerves when so-called poker experts get all mad saying they "should have" won and they "played right"... If statements like that were true all the time, what the hell would be the point of playing poker to start with?

Well said.

Mitch

Strickie 11-07-2007 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by XMaster (Post 13342524)
All-in with 99 is crazy as well :)

I agree :upsidedow

eroswebmaster 11-07-2007 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fuzebox (Post 13343305)
This is more or less along the lines of what how I see it too... I mean you've just got a pair of 9s, it doesn't really matter what he had, just what he thought you had, and it looks like he made the right call. Overcards vs. low pair is a classic coin toss, and in this situation it doesn't really matter if he had QT or AK, same odds to you.

It really gets on my nerves when so-called poker experts get all mad saying they "should have" won and they "played right"... If statements like that were true all the time, what the hell would be the point of playing poker to start with?

LOL no he did not make the right call you are playing results oriented...this guy wasn't thinking about what the OP had...he's a gambler..that's it.
Against a MP raisers range *which is going to be a bit wider than an early position raisers range* he's playing a hand that is more than likely seriously dominated.

What does dominated mean. He's playing Q10 vs a range of hands. Now when most people raise, their range depending upon position will usually involve two big cards or a pair. So that range would include AK-A10, KQs, A's-10's. In that range is Q's, 10's, AQ, A10, KQs and maybe KQ. These hands all dominate Q10.

I would rather 3-bet someone here with a medium suited connector like 98, 87, because your cards are most likely live.

Now against a raise, and then a 4 bet all-in that range gets tightened up. *Now I think pushing with 9's is teh suck and will explain that later* But against that 4 bet push, the range gets tightened up to usually big pairs 10's+ and AKs against that range Q10s *I gave villain the credit for doing this with a suited hand* only has 26% equity in this pot...that is fucking horrible to make that call.

Now onto pushing with 9's. This isn't a tournament, where you're having to get your money all-in in coinflip situations, this is a cash game, where you have all the time in the world...literally.

You raised, he 3-bet you, at most call then try to spike your set. With someone like this, I would probably check raise on an 8 high board, but once any broadway card hits which will be over 72% of the time, you can safely muck your 9's.

That's my poker lesson for the day.

eroswebmaster 11-07-2007 10:24 AM

LOL @ people who look for "classic coin toss" situations in cash games.

Get Mike and Vince out of your head, and replace it with some logic.

MaxCandy 11-07-2007 10:55 AM

its a stage of game thing too, what was his stack, your stack?

Early in game, med, third phase or shoot out?

Me, would play his hand early and on shoot out, but not med -3rd phase

GigoloMason 11-07-2007 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Makaveli (Post 13342256)
2-5 no limit game I was at tonight.

I raise to $30 in middle position with 99, nothing but limpers when it comes to me. There is one idiot at the table who hasn't come in for less the $30 preflop with cock soup. Never showed a decent hand besides pocket kings once. So it comes to him, he goes $60. I know he has fuck all and when it comes to me a move all in for $200 thinking he can't call with his crap I know he's holding. Well to make a long story short I was wrong, this fucking idiot calls me and turns over Q-10 of hearts and spikes a 10. Now let me ask you, would you pay $200 to play Q-10 aka the gay waiter?

Fucking I'm spinning right now. :mad: I called him a fucking goof and left the table.

Why would you call a 9-9 vs a strong raiser? *le sigh*

GigoloMason 11-07-2007 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Makaveli (Post 13342256)
2-5 no limit game I was at tonight.

I raise to $30 in middle position with 99, nothing but limpers when it comes to me. There is one idiot at the table who hasn't come in for less the $30 preflop with cock soup. Never showed a decent hand besides pocket kings once. So it comes to him, he goes $60. I know he has fuck all and when it comes to me a move all in for $200 thinking he can't call with his crap I know he's holding. Well to make a long story short I was wrong, this fucking idiot calls me and turns over Q-10 of hearts and spikes a 10. Now let me ask you, would you pay $200 to play Q-10 aka the gay waiter?

Fucking I'm spinning right now. :mad: I called him a fucking goof and left the table.

Why would you play a 9-9 vs a strong raiser? *le sigh*

MaxCandy 11-07-2007 11:11 AM

here is best chart i found:


http://www.texasholdem.com/images/pr...ghandchart.jpg

GigoloMason 11-07-2007 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RawAlex (Post 13343122)
(6 out of 45 = 13% chance that any card that comes up is the one he wants, rounded up to 15 to allow for things like straights and flushes, etc. 15% over two cards = 30%).

That you got into that position preflop means that he had a pretty good chance for hitting one of those two cards ( 5 x 15% or 75%) and even a little extra chance with 5 cards to fill in a straight or a flush.

I think you need a statistics review ;)

You don't add the %'s together :2 cents:

dig420 11-07-2007 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fuzebox (Post 13343305)
This is more or less along the lines of what how I see it too... I mean you've just got a pair of 9s, it doesn't really matter what he had, just what he thought you had, and it looks like he made the right call. Overcards vs. low pair is a classic coin toss, and in this situation it doesn't really matter if he had QT or AK, same odds to you.

It really gets on my nerves when so-called poker experts get all mad saying they "should have" won and they "played right"... If statements like that were true all the time, what the hell would be the point of playing poker to start with?

bullshit. In poker your goal is to get your chips in with the best hand PERIOD. If that means chucking them in there with 99 against someone you know is a donkey who raises with anything, then that's what you do. You can try sitting there developing a leather ass waiting for AA or KK, but that's not winning poker because those hands will get busted too. Online, they'll get busted non-stop. 99 is a favorite over Q-10, PERIOD. It's called trapping.

Snake Doctor 11-07-2007 12:04 PM

Q-10 isn't a gay waiter, Q-3 is a gay waiter.

If you knew the guy was a donkey that would call with crap you could have waited for a better spot.

Harrison Richard 11-07-2007 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Makaveli (Post 13342256)
2-5 no limit game I was at tonight.

I raise to $30 in middle position with 99, nothing but limpers when it comes to me. There is one idiot at the table who hasn't come in for less the $30 preflop with cock soup. Never showed a decent hand besides pocket kings once. So it comes to him, he goes $60. I know he has fuck all and when it comes to me a move all in for $200 thinking he can't call with his crap I know he's holding. Well to make a long story short I was wrong, this fucking idiot calls me and turns over Q-10 of hearts and spikes a 10. Now let me ask you, would you pay $200 to play Q-10 aka the gay waiter?

Fucking I'm spinning right now. :mad: I called him a fucking goof and left the table.

Time out everyone. All of you who have analyzed this hand clearly have NO IDEA what you are doing and should probably quit playing poker now.

We need to know the answers to ALL of these questions before coming to any conclusions:

- What is your position?
- What are the positions of the limpers?
- What is the position of the weird mini-reraiser?
- How much is in the limpers' stacks
- How much is in the weird mini reraiser's stack
- How much is in your stack
- What is your image at the table?
- Is it no sweat to your roll if you lose your stack?

Depending on the answers to those questions, Makaveli and the villain may have played this hand perfectly reasonably. Or both may have played it incredibly bad.

It looks like Makaveli played this hand perfectly. He knew his hand was better than the villain's preflop range and he got his money in as a favorite. All-in rereraise was the right move because he only had $230 in his stack to start (quite short for a 2-5 game).

fuzebox 11-07-2007 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dig420 (Post 13343702)
bullshit. In poker your goal is to get your chips in with the best hand PERIOD. If that means chucking them in there with 99 against someone you know is a donkey who raises with anything, then that's what you do. You can try sitting there developing a leather ass waiting for AA or KK, but that's not winning poker because those hands will get busted too. Online, they'll get busted non-stop. 99 is a favorite over Q-10, PERIOD. It's called trapping.

I agree with you. What I was trying to get at (although I don't really know how to word it well) is that I can see why the raiser would raise and what he was thinking, and also why "I should have won" is a silly thing to say after the fact.

Snake Doctor 11-07-2007 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dig420 (Post 13343702)
bullshit. In poker your goal is to get your chips in with the best hand PERIOD. If that means chucking them in there with 99 against someone you know is a donkey who raises with anything, then that's what you do. You can try sitting there developing a leather ass waiting for AA or KK, but that's not winning poker because those hands will get busted too. Online, they'll get busted non-stop. 99 is a favorite over Q-10, PERIOD. It's called trapping.

99 is a very very small favorite over Q-10 suited. If you know someone is a horrible player then you push big edges against them, you don't gamble with small ones.

The original poster lost his cool and pushed with 99 not because he thought it was a monster hand, but because he was sick of seeing the donkey raise with crap and make people fold...so he thought he'd push him off the hand.

Alot of people seem to forget you can only make good players fold.

fuzebox 11-07-2007 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snake Doctor (Post 13343771)
Alot of people seem to forget you can only make good players fold.

quoted for troof

Snake Doctor 11-07-2007 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Makaveli (Post 13342256)
:mad: I called him a fucking goof and left the table.

One time I saw a quarterback throw a pass into triple coverage that his receiver caught for a touchdown.
After the play the other team's quarterback walked to the sideline and called him a fucking donkey and then stormed off the field.

I mean WTF was he thinking throwing the pass into triple coverage? He was at least a 4 to 1 underdog to make the touchdown. Fucking idiots.

:helpme

dig420 11-07-2007 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snake Doctor (Post 13343771)
99 is a very very small favorite over Q-10 suited. If you know someone is a horrible player then you push big edges against them, you don't gamble with small ones.

The original poster lost his cool and pushed with 99 not because he thought it was a monster hand, but because he was sick of seeing the donkey raise with crap and make people fold...so he thought he'd push him off the hand.

Alot of people seem to forget you can only make good players fold.

He had fold equity and about an 80% chance of having the best hand even in the event of a donkey call. He did the right thing. You build your stack by punishing bad players, not by waiting until you have a straight flush to make a bet.

I'm not saying 99 is infallible, I'm saying that online the better hand gets busted a fuck of a lot more than it does at the Bellagio.

Harrison Richard 11-07-2007 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snake Doctor (Post 13343771)
99 is a very very small favorite over Q-10 suited. If you know someone is a horrible player then you push big edges against them, you don't gamble with small ones.

FALSE, as long as your roll won't hurt if you lose.

ANY TIME you pass up an edge you are losing money and making a poor long-term decision.

That said, your statement is closer to true in many cases in a tournament situation, where your stack is effectively your roll.

Harrison Richard 11-07-2007 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dig420 (Post 13343813)
He had fold equity and about an 80% chance of having the best hand even in the event of a donkey call. He did the right thing. You build your stack by punishing bad players, not by waiting until you have a straight flush to make a bet.

Agreed.... but weird quote below:

Quote:

I'm not saying 99 is infallible, I'm saying that online the better hand gets busted a fuck of a lot more than it does at the Bellagio.
This is a perception thing. The online better hand get busted just as much as the B&M hand.

You see way more hands online in an hour than you see at the Bellagio, so you notice the underdog wins more often because of the idiots who can't lose a hand without keyboard commando bitching :D.

dig420 11-07-2007 12:24 PM

No it's not. Absolute Poker got busted cheating, and I'm pretty damn convinced it's a widespread and wholesale phenomenon throughout online poker sites, especially since the 'ban' on poker. Now the oversight is much, MUCH less strenuous.

Why do I still play? I'm too fucking lazy to get dressed and go to the casino lol... I also don't think the tournaments have nearly as many house players and cheats.

Makingcoin 11-07-2007 12:28 PM

You are all donkeys. :P

DirtyProfits 11-07-2007 12:37 PM

You should watch your play more than the play of others. If you played weak before that guy might just have thought you were bluffing him ...

Snake Doctor 11-07-2007 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dig420 (Post 13343813)
He had fold equity and about an 80% chance of having the best hand even in the event of a donkey call. He did the right thing. You build your stack by punishing bad players, not by waiting until you have a straight flush to make a bet.

I'm not saying 99 is infallible, I'm saying that online the better hand gets busted a fuck of a lot more than it does at the Bellagio.

He had zero fold equity. You don't have fold equity against donkeys.

Yes he had the best hand, but by a very very small margin. You can't push all-in on a coin flip and then be upset when the coin lands on tails.

Your statement about waiting for a straight flush is pretty ridiculous.

Rule 1 for no-limit cash games, DON'T GO BROKE WITH ONE PAIR.
The exceptions to that rule are if you have AA or KK and can get a majority of the money in before the flop.

You don't have to wait for a monster hand, or even aces, but you'll have plenty of opportunites with hands that are two-pair or better to make your money.

You seem to be on permanent tilt from online play, you should take a break man.

DrGuile 11-07-2007 12:49 PM

you went all-in into a re-raiser(who's unlikely to fold) with at best a coin flip, at worse being dominated by a bigger pair

he called 2:1 pot odds with a bad hand...

I think you deserve each other...

Makaveli 11-07-2007 12:59 PM

I know, I was tilting lastnight when I got home and jumped online.. This was a live game.. Really I was just trying to slow this guy down. Everybody was walking away from the table because he was grabbing everybody. No matter what you raised he would come over top, preflop and on the flop with total garbage and was catching. Cracking big hands with 5-7 off making 2 pair.. Next time I will wait for a better spot.

Still a bad call with his hand preflop.

eroswebmaster 11-07-2007 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Harrison Richard (Post 13343764)
Time out everyone. All of you who have analyzed this hand clearly have NO IDEA what you are doing and should probably quit playing poker now.

We need to know the answers to ALL of these questions before coming to any conclusions:

- What is your position?
- What are the positions of the limpers?
- What is the position of the weird mini-reraiser?
- How much is in the limpers' stacks
- How much is in the weird mini reraiser's stack
- How much is in your stack
- What is your image at the table?
- Is it no sweat to your roll if you lose your stack?

Depending on the answers to those questions, Makaveli and the villain may have played this hand perfectly reasonably. Or both may have played it incredibly bad.

It looks like Makaveli played this hand perfectly. He knew his hand was better than the villain's preflop range and he got his money in as a favorite. All-in rereraise was the right move because he only had $230 in his stack to start (quite short for a 2-5 game).

OP said he was in middle position, so there should be 2-3 limpers in front of him..UTG, UTG+1 and maybe UTG+2.

The position of the min re-raiser doesn't really matter at this point, position is eliminated once he decides to go all-in. However it does affect his decision on how he plays his hand after the flop, but the way it's written comes off as if villain is in cutoff or on the button.

He's pretty much given all the information he can about his stack which is $230...that's the effective stack unless someone is limping in with less than that, and I highly doubt it.

Image is important...but against a calling station / loose maniac / donkey, these people don't care what your image is.
You can dust off the cobwebs from your chips in order to raise, and they will still call.

Now regarding the short stack, this is why I don't play with less than a full buy-in. With only 46 blinds, I'm not raising over 10% of my stack with 9's, you're already at a commitment threshold and you're looking to get your money into the middle. However, if you're pushing preflop with 9's, in most cases, not all cases, but most, you're only getting called by hands that have you beat, or are at worst flipping with you...which was the case here.

With only 46 blinds, and raising over 10% of your stack, you're effectively cutting down your implied odds to even hit a set here, you're not maximizing your potential win if you hit and stack someone.

However, the guy got himself into trouble by playing the hand the way he did. I'm not one for racing preflop, I don't have to, I know how to play flops, turns and rivers profitably.

As far as big hands like Aces and Kings, with aces, I'm willing to race preflop with everything I own. But Kings, I cap it at 100 blinds.

Now I use the word "race" liberally here. It's not really a race, but when you allow people to see 5 cards, there is a better chance of them winning.

But the further I go down in the pocket pair category, the less willing I am to race pre with them. Queens and Jacks, max about 60 blinds pre. 10's for me don't even really come into the equation. Jacks suck, 10's suck even more.

What most recreational poker players don't even comprehend is the value of hands pre, on the flop, turn, then river.

Aces yeah they are a sweet hand, but you have to load them heavy up front trying to get as much money in the middle pre and on the flop, because like all pairs, if they have not improved on the flop, they begin to lose more and more value on the turn, and river.

I prefer to play deep stack games. When I play live, my choices are Binions or Golden Nugget, where the buy-in is uncapped...where you can play real "no limit."

Some lucky tourist sits down with $200, runs it into $600, and I can sit down and buy-in a $1$2 game and cover him, and there's roughly $5,000-$30,000 on the table.

That way I can punish people who like to play the "all-in" game.

Makaveli 11-07-2007 01:17 PM

Good discussion going.. I'm learning stuff.. Only been playing about 8 months now and about even money wise.. My best month was 3k winnings. I win more money playing mtt then cash game.. I'm a tight player but if I think I have the best hand I'm willing to move allin. Next time I think I would call his fucking re-raise and hopefully flop a set then move in if he comes out betting...

dig420 11-07-2007 06:33 PM

Don't listen to these fuckers. If you know the guy is a bomb who is likely to put all his chips with any kind of bullshit you stand up to him and play him hard, and you take his chips. The alternative is to let him run all over you. You might as well just sit down, give him all your chips and leave if you're going to do that. I have a win for 30k at the Bellagio to my name and a WPT and WSOP card in my pocket right now. I'm guessing the nellies who want to lay down a decent pp against a guy who plays like an over-aggressive 12 yr. old can't say the same.

IllTestYourGirls 11-07-2007 06:48 PM

Was he online?

going all in with 99 preflop trying to take a wild man off his hand was not a good move. But maybe your only move.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dig420 (Post 13342380)
people get lucky too fucking much online. He made a donkey call, but donkeys get paid online almost without fail. When I'm all in against a lower pair pre-flop I'm holding my fucking breath, because I swear about half the time they spike a set on the river.


RawAlex 11-07-2007 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GigoloMason (Post 13343644)
I think you need a statistics review ;)

You don't add the %'s together :2 cents:

'

actually, in many ways you do, although it is a very rough calculation and not precise, it is pretty good for general play.

Effectively, when the player holds QT, there are 6 card that can help him. 52 card - 2 in your hand and 2 in the other guys hand means 48 cards. 6 in 48 chance to get any one card he needs. 12.5%, round it to 13% chance that any single card turned is a good card.

But now, he gets to turn 5 cards. Each of those cards has the same chance (actually, a slightly increasing chance because with every card flipped the remaining number of cards drop... so post-flop, there is 6 in 45 chance (13.3% - which is why I rounded the other one up to 13 to make it easier to do the math, good when you are sitting at the table and don't have a calculator handy!).

Each of the 5 cards has about a 13% chance of being the card he wants, so you have 5 * 13% chance. Effectively, the odds are not 65%, but the odds are quite high that any one of those 5 cards would be well over 50% right out the gate.

The flop comes, he doesn't get any of his cards, and now there are 45 cards left, 6 outs, and 2 cards to go - 26% chance that he sees a card he needs. Flip one more, those odds go to about 13.5%.

Think about it another way. If you are in a 1 in a million lottery and you buy two tickets, your single ticket odds didn't improve but overall you now have effectively 2 in 1 million odds. If you bought all 1 million tickets, you would have a 1 in 1 chance. It's pretty linear.


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