Do you think the shit state of the US economy is hurting sales?
 

Do you think the shit state of the US economy is hurting sales?

according to george bush our economy is thriving !

more than 100k jobs created last month

stock market is up

life is good...no?

I'm American, I now live in Asia, I love going back to the USA because it is so much fucking cheaper than my cities in Asia

pretty sad, and disappointing :(

I don't think sales will be affected but I just wish you guys would sort it out! Its fucking pissing me off now.

I found an old letter from my bank about a cheque I put in for $7500 and I received around £4200 roughly. That was 16 months ago!

now, for $7500 I don't even get £3700

To be honest I don't think so... Buying a porn membership isn't like deciding which wireless plan to go with. I think most people have an impulse entertainment budget be it movies, drinks with friends, magazines, whatever, and if they want to see the full movie on your paysite they will join whether the dollar is down, oil is up, their mortgage payment is due, and so forth. I mean you are talking about a $3 trial in most cases.

I think the massive amount of easy free porn is affecting sales a lot more than the US economy.

Exactly what came to my mind - people will always find money to have some fun - the only difference that some drink gold label and some moonshine / some will buy an escort / some will join a paysite.

The only trouble is that paysites have a free and simple alternative these days - Btw. I was just today tracking some traffic estimations on free / stolen content websites like megarotic and it's kind of scary..

i think morons who dress up like jesus christ and post pics of them snorting cociane might affect sales a bit, i could be wrong though. its happend before.

weak dollar means more sales from non us customers..

hell, someone in london can join an american paysite that's $28 for less than 20 euro

I reject the premise of the question.

According to all of the data that's available to us the economy is doing fine. Unemployment is low, inflation is low, corporate profits are good, and corporate balance sheets are excellent.

Growth is very slow, I'll give you that, mostly because the recession in housing is having an impact on the overall numbers......but overall the economy is fine.

Of course. Duh.

You're an idiot. The economy is not fine. The White House says its fine because they need it to be fine otherwise they are not gonna win some elections/selections. If you believe them (clearly you do) you're an idiot.

Probably a little..not so much money to throw around

Gas prices I have found have had the greatest effect. When gas prices first started hitting the higher numbers, I noticed a slow down. Gas hits 4 buck a gallon sales will hurt. If someone has a choice of buying porn or getting gas for his car to go to work porn loses.

You sir are the idiot.

This has nothing to do with the White House. The White House doesn't run the economy.
This has to do with mountains of evidence and statistics that have been used for decades by industrialized nations to measure economic growth and health. Those statistics say that unemployment is low and inflation is low. Growth is slow, but there is still growth.

I don't like this administration and I disagree with almost all of it's policies, and I'm voting for Obama.
That being said, facts are facts and just because you hate Bush and his policies doesn't mean there's something wrong with the U.S. economy. The data does not support that conclusion.

yes and like we all know they use euro in london :upsidedow

Of course, but I really don't think our customer base is made up of many of the people who would have to make that decision.
If gas prices going up to $4 breaks your budget, then you probably aren't spending $30+ a month on porn anyways.

Yes but I am prepared for the inevitable

Porn is entertainment.. much like buying a big mac instead of going to the grocery store and buying ground beef and buns. With consumer confidence at a lowe level already, and the economists all saying the same thing:

"Stop spending more than you make asshats!"

People are clearly in a credit crunch, and well, the first things to go are the porn memberships and getting that credit card paid off - or going bankruptcy.

On the other hand, those who arn't affected at all, and are responsible, are still buying memberships on a regular basis. This month is still better than last year to date, so who knows....

Ahhh so that's how you survive the sharky farts.

I have to go with this too. What is the problem as you see it? We might be due for some serious inflation but it is not here yet.

Ummmm, today is the 1st. :helpme

NO far bigger problems affecting the average paysites sales.

The only changes Ive seen over the last few years is the tighter scrubbing done by CC processors - its gotten a little out of hand - but I dont think the economy will ever really affect online memberships - the first thing that feels the effect is "luxury" service industries like tanning shops etc - Ive seen that change with gas prices at my store.

heh, unemployment statistics. Do you even know how that number is calculated? If you did, you would not rely on it. The unemployment rate in the US is probably more like 30% right now, not the 5-7% or whatever they claim it is at. Yes, the data does support that conclusion. The statistics do not support the conclusion, and the statistics, you remember, are arrived at by playing with and manipulating the data to make it say what those in power want it to say.

I think your mistaken most people live check to check. Gas going up hurts and they cut costs other ways. You also have to remember they will give anyone a credit card. When my wifes sister was 19 the kid was making like 6 bucks a hour.She got a preapproved visa app in the mail. They gave her a 10,000 line of credit making 6 bucks an hour. Now a person like this can buy porn for a while until the min payment swallows them. There are more of those people then you think. We have gotten lots of money is tight right now sorry I have to cancel,I will be back when things pick up and they do come back. Gas would go up sales would go down doesnt take a rocket scientist.

Your correct, it doesnt account the people that just gave up.

And PimpelPuppy is back to his old self, didn't last long did it? Say hi to your sister for me..

Not sure where you guys live but I live in the US one week a month and it is rock solid here. No way in hell is unemployment high here. Everyone I know is working.

No number is perfect, not unless they knocked on the door of every home in America each month, and got an honest answer from the person inside.

The number is what the number is, and as long as it's calculated the same way every month then we know if things are getting better or worse.
The last time the unemployment number dropped into the low 4% range and below, (during the Clinton administration) we had mass wage spikes across the country because there was a serious labor shortage.
That alone should tell you that the number is a fairly reliable indicator of how much labor is available in our economy.

Your argument that the statistics are manipulated to say what those in power want it to say is ridiculous. If that were the case, the numbers would be calculated differently depending upon who is in office, and no incumbent would ever lose an election based on the economy.

Agree - plans A to Z are in the filing cabinet :thumbsup

Consumer spending, despite attempts to raise it, did not work last month. A credit crunch has already started and, depends what this current quarter shows, but there are no indications of any light at the end of the tunnel, and, until there is, consumer confidence will prob stay as it is or possibly decline further.

A real acid test of consumer confidence is not on the net, but in print media when trying to sell X product off-the-page and this has to be done in the lifespan of the media, - could be a day (for daily press) or a month for a mag. Dump $100K of promo in a monthly mag/s when the public are "distracted" by other issues such are wars, financial unrest etc - sure as hell will lose big time and unlikely to even cover the promo cost.

Same on TV - no advertiser wants to buy spots in the middle of a program about eg Iraq, or, if they do - they sure are unlikely to paying rate card price.

The net is no different, - if spending confidence is not there, the clicks to that signup page will not happen as in more stable times.

No. During the great depression movie theaters didn't slow down. People needed to be able to escape the shitty reality. 30$ isn't going to make or break someone budget. People still need to get off, and they will still pay for it.

It also does not count:

• The millions of illegal immigrants that don't work.
• The millions on welfare who could work.
• Those who applied for unemployment benefits but were denied.
• Those who didn't bother to apply for unemployment benefits.
• Those who applied for benefits, got them and exhausted them and still haven't found another job.

I wouldn't say there is any more free porn on the internet than there was 3 years ago.

3 years ago it was like printing money. Now you have to work much harder.

The torrents are a lot more prevelant...that could be hurting things. When it is easier to get scrubbed by a processor than download from a torrent, what are people gonna do?

I use torrents to get music sometimes because iTunes can be such a pain in the balls.

Good point and it was escapism! Hollywood owes a lot to the depression :)

The paying for it is maybe the sticky bit? If cards are maxed and pressure on on paying other bills it tends to distract from "getting off" :pimp

Just because you don't like the government's statistics doesn't mean you get to make up your own.
Justify your 30% claim. (You can't because it's utter bullshit, but go ahead and try)

According to this
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Labor/wm456.cfm

The total number is reported by the government, it's called "U-4", but it's not the number the fed uses when making policy decisions.
The same way that the headline inflation rate, which includes oil and food prices, is reported by the government, but it's not the number the fed uses when making policy decisions.
Of course, I'm sure you think government inflation numbers are bullshit also, manipulated by the people in power so they can get reelected, and that 9/11 was an inside job right?

Actually they are. The fed printing press is running non stop. The CPI is absolute bullshit.
You guys tell me, has your cost of living gone up more than 2% this past year?

That's gotta be scary. Depending on your lifestyle, that's a very serious dent.

Being Canadian, kind of..., I really do no know what drives the USD... so I will sit this one out... kind of...

Later,

Yeah, inflation is bullshit. You cant inflate the value of something that has no value to start with, i.e. The US Dollar. The US Dollar is absolutely fucking worthless, it always has been and it always will be. Its is backed by "the full faith and credit of The United States" and nothing else. Tell me, how much faith do YOU put in the United States these days? I sure don't put much faith in it.

Well it's patently obvious that most of you don't have a clue about economics. You're just spouting off talking points you heard on talk radio without any evidence to back them up.

Enjoy your tin foil hats.

It can't be helping....

Growth is 3.9% which came out yesterday and unemployment is 4.7%.

Under Clinton 3% growth was the best economy ever and 5% unemployment was considered 100% employed or full employment and couldn't get much lower !

:thumbsup to you as you know what you are talking about and are not ignorant of fact like some of the others in this thread...some of whom have an agenda...and just spout pigshit.

The US economy is the envy of most of the world including most industrialized nations.

This may be a stuid question, but is the majority of the US population even aware that the dollar is so low?

I voted no, btw. Partly b/c we don't see sales drop here at Payserve (while we process in Euro's) and partly b/c porn site access is a luxurious/impulse buy that people don't care paying a few % extra for.

Well... No Marie, - a simple illustration of that is in both posts above your one.

There is a tendency to have delusions, even when faced with unavoidable volumes of financial fact. It's kinda like Alice in Wonderland stuff :winkwink:


BTW.. Excellent program :thumbsup

I've been losing faith in the strength of the US economy these past few years. When I see the fed doing things like this: Fed bends rules to help two big banks it makes me question the lengths that they would go to in order to save the big boys (banks, hedge funds) from their crappy investments.
Responsibility and accountability have gone down the pooper. Let those fuckers tough it out I say, I doubt they'll make the same mistakes twice.
& you think they won't bend the numbers to make everything look good? Come on...
Please explain to me how a low USD, running the printing presses 24/7 and high commodity prices don't translate into higher inflation?

How are your property taxes doing? Have they gone up more than 2% this past year? Health premiums? College expenses for you kids? You don't need a degree in economics to figure out the true yearly inflation. (granted the cpi isn't calculated with these figures in mind)

Speaking of getting the info from talk radio, I tuned into cnbc a few days ago and they were all raving about the spectacular boost in exports that the weak USD has caused.
Who gives a shit? Look at the cost of imports (the huge trade deficit). What the hell are these people smoking?

& getting back to the topic at hand: "Do you think the shit state of the US economy is hurting sales?"
If it hasn't already, it certainly will.

One thing which is *very* obvious is media hype - they will hype financial stuff to death, obviously hoping for mugs to offload alleged investments. This has been going so for at least two years and create a totally false impression for the public. Only me, can't can stand scammers and predators and this is what it actually is, and not a new scenario. Know plenty people who saw the same thing and a few were actually finance people and they were horrified by the bs and would not dream on placing their client funds into that market. One has to wonder where this hype is coming from - no other market behaves that way.

Agree on exports and there has been improvement, but, as you say, it is drowned in import debt. This is like looking at the "better side" and one entry of a balance sheet - it means nothing.

Lets hope it does magically improve overall, - it would have to happen by magic since there appears to be no group with the ability to act, otherwise why have they not acted already?

Very true, in fact if it were not true most of those nations would not be lending it money hand over fist.

I have no idea if the US economy is suffering and if it effects sales. I see people losing their homes and rising debt in the US but not sure if that means less porn being bought. I have been in the business a bit longer than most and I can tell you that during previous recessions my turn over went up!!!

IMHO if sales are falling the reasons are far closer to home. A wiser consumer, more options for the guys looking for a 15 minute thrill, more options for guys looking for a 30 day thrill, more "better" sites, more affiliates trying to grab traffic, more sites.

And yes more free porn.

My sales on www.paulmarkhamteens.com are fine and from what I can see rejoins (members rejoining the site) are doing well, might even do a promo. Content store sales are not bad, but this is the area I want to push more at the moment.

The strength of the dollar has hurt and continues to hurt.

so about unemployment numbers:

And of course, on the statistics, people don?t understand the way government statistics work . And most people will concede that politicians lie. They lie to get elected ? everybody knows that ? they say what they have to say, so I don?t know why people assume that once they get elected they stop lying. I mean that?s all they do. Once you get elected your job is to stay in office. And the way politicians stay in office, is to present a rosy scenario. And so what these guys do is they constantly change the way that economic statistics are calculated so that they can give a better result; so the politicians can point up to these dumbed up statistics as evidence that things have gotten better while they have been in office.

So they constantly change and redefine how things are measured. So the unemployment rate, for example, today, is calculated far differently than it was in the past; if they calculated unemployment during the Great Depression the way we do it now, they would probably have had very little unemployment then either. They calculate GDP differently. There are a lot of things calculated as part of GNP that 5 years ago, 10 years ago, 20 years ago would not have been counted. Everything has changed, so when they compare a number today to one 20 years ago, it?s completely irrelevant comparisons because they?re not doing it the same way.

And then of course, when you adjust it all for inflation the reality is back in the 1950s a guy had a job, he can support a wife and a large family ? maybe 4 or 5 kids; his wife didn?t have to work; his kids all went to college and none of them had to borrow money; and he saved for his retirement ? and he did all that on a middle-class income and a high school education, if that. Today, you need two paychecks to support a family, both of them need to have gone to college, and they can maybe have one or two kids and that?s it. Beyond that, they can?t even afford it ? and they still have no savings. With all this booming prosperity how can it be that a middle-class family is so much worse off today than they were in 1950? "

from:
http://www.financialsense.com/transc...2007/0310.html

I seriously doubt it.