Where do you see the USD in 1, 2, 5 and 10 years?
 

ok everyone with a clue will probably laugh at my thread title and 10 years perspective :winkwink:

anyway... right now for 1 Euro you need to pay $1.42 USD and for 1 Canadian dollar $1.02 USD :warning

do you think we should seriously expect a similar situation for let's say the next 2 years? or even worse?

or did the USD just his its low and now it will go higher again in the next months/years?


:helpme

1$ = 1 Euro in 10 years

It will lose about 5% more then it will start climbing back up.

I'll nominate you for next years Nobel prize in economics if you're right :winkwink:

The US Dollar is still the #1 reserve currency, everybody is claiming the Euro is going to replace it soon, but the numbers say something different: 65.7% in Dollar in 2006, compared to 25.2% in Euro (Percentage of global currency reserves held in the particular currency).

The shift from Dollar to Euro was about 5% from 2000 to 2006 (70.5% and 18.8% for 2000), still a big ammount, but not as much as some people want us to believe.

So, many countries, including China, India, Europe, the whole OPEC states, Russia, Japan, etc. have a vital interest in these reserves keeping a certain value.

My guess would be that we are at or close to the bottom and move towards a 1:1 Dollar for Euro long term. The weak dollar is hurting european exports alot at the moment and will reflect on the Euro as well.

Depends on the amount of smart votes during next elections.

wheres the 9/11 conspiracy guys?

o thats right....they don't understand economics

if they did, they would chime in right about now

The US deficit is too big for the USD too climb aganst other fiat currencies - if the US cut military spending + social programs, then they might be able to balance the budget, and put a stop to their deficit, which in time could make the USD rise again, since there will be no need to keep printing new/more USD.

1 year from now probably the same to minus 5%

In 2 years there will be a new president, however so far I have only seen one candidate who actual is concern about the economy, and thats Ron Paul - rest of them are talking about the same level of spending on things with bad returns (military + social programs), with a few of them talking for even more spending - WTF!?! So 2 years from now it will probably be minus 5-10% from today (unless that Ron Paul fellow wins, or the new US president is getting schooled after he/she wins the election).

5 years is getting us close to alot of bad mojo... nuclear weapons in the middel east, china claming land, oil production peaking, a few sector bubble bursts, and since the US will be sitting in the middle of all, then the USD might hit the lowest yet. Of course there is always the possibility the US have elected wise leaders by then, which navigate the US into safe harbor, but I´m guessing the odds are low for that.

10 years if time is still around (2012), then the Euro will replace the USD as the world fiat currency, which could be the end of the US empire.

Of course there is always the VERY realistic chance that european, candian etc. politicians fuck up their own economies with insane spending (ex. state welfare for everyone), so their fiat currencies will drop as fast or faster than the USD, which might make my fortune-telling fucking fun for everyone reading this in 10 years from now :pimp

post dissapearing ... weird ...

so:

no surprise .

European exports are up - not down...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e84f030e-7...0779fd2ac.html

In 10 years,

US$ will be walking down on the same path .

It will be worth ? 0.75 or even less, as the American economy is not producing anything anymore, but relies on consuming goods from China, services from India or for American enterprise which will pay less and less taxes to Fed governement.

Then China will get so much dollars in its central reserve that it will buy out America :2 cents:

What do you think of this polish_aristocrat?
 

polish_aristocrat, Since one USD = 97 cents approx now, it would not surprise me if the USD stabilizes around 80-85 cents (US) to one CDN dollar... however the US economy is hard to figure out and changes so quickly... very unstable and depends on many factors in other countries... The Canadian dollar is attractive to investors because it is somewhat stable...

Later,

.

buy gold.

The dollar was weak during the 80's too, it's the result of rising deficits and the national debt.

Basically our deficit/debt acts like a credit score to the rest of the world. The stronger our fiscal situation, the more they're going to want our currency, and vice-versa.

If the next president brings us back the the fiscal responsibility we had in the 90's, then the dollar will get stronger. If it's more of the same, it's going to get weaker.

To do so, he will have to cut on military spending and raise taxes at least on the very wealthy.
Since there is good chances that it will be a democrat president, well the republicans will be happy to point out and say :

" we told you so ... they are soft on our security and raise taxes ..."

Sometimes, I think it would be good to let Guliani be president and see how he manages that ...

For the next 15 months, it will be down. Not too much lower than where it is now, but it isn't going to get much better. In fact, if the fed lowers interest rates again, the dollar could tumble further. At some point, other countries will almost certainly step in and start buying US dollars to prop it up, to keep their export businesses alive.

Once the US gets a new President, I suspect things will change rather quickly. Firstly, the US will be on the back side of the current mortgage blowup. Second, the new President will almost certainly reduce the US military force in Iraq, and once again bring some stability to the world, mostly by having a strong force ready to swat the flies that are currently running free.

So 2 years out, probably about where it is now.

by five years out, I would expect it to be better than it is now, but I think that the Euro will be stronger than the US dollar for a very long time to come, maybe 1.25 to a dollar in 5 years.

Giuliani would be a disaster for this country, he's George W Bush with an Italian name.

Taxes need to be raised in this country, they've been too low for the past 6+ years. We have alot of unfunded obligations that need to be paid for.

The military spending cuts can come solely from getting our troops out of Iraq. The next president will most likely increase other military spending, in order to try and repair the damage done to our military by this war.

It depends on a lot of factors that you and I don't control like how long the Iraq war will last.

:thumbsup:thumbsup:thumbsup

time to move to canada..

I HOPE the dollar stays this low for some more years... But then my main income is NOT from adult, so I dont care much anymore.

Canadian dollar will be worth 10 cents more then the US dollar

US dollar will bounce back soon. Just wait till they secure the oil feilds in iraq.

Since this post was made today it's actually currently 1.03 - 1.04 CND
Last week was the same as well .....
:helpme :helpme

For Brazil, te dollar will still drop 10-20% by next year.

:(

I think individuals pay enough taxes here to be honest. I really hope they don't raise taxes. If you're going to look for more revenue, we should look at not giving huge tax breaks to folks at Exxon and other major corporations that don't need them.

But you're right about spending. I think it goes well beyond just military spending. We are spending on stupid stuff to pay off politician's buddies in power. We need a President who is going to be a pain in the ass when it comes to spending. Someone who vetoes everything that is unnecessary. I'm tired of hearing about my tax dollars going toward a teapot museum or wild shrimp marketing. I'm tired of seeing my our deficit increase while we dish out billions to the Saudis and Israel just to make them happy.

The rich are taxed enough here. Everyone is in fact. The problem isn't how much money is coming in, it's where it's going to.

The bank takes more.. damn fees :(

I think the Canadian and U.S. dollar will hover around par give or take a penny or three for a long time now.

OK - the 10 year term is more crystal ball, but five years is much easier :winkwink:

A similiar situation for the next two years? No doubts, but probably worse. At a conservative estimate the dollar will lose another 10% over the next year and probably roughly the same the following year.

Until "management" have a fiscal policy and stop living off a fantasy national credit card, nothing will change - the economy will continue on a downwards spiral and this will be reflected in currency value.

The downturn in the US home market has just started and expect that to drop a further 20% and possibly 30% more over the next 2-4 years.

The financial fantasy is still being painted by the Whitehouse ("the economy is healthy and stable") and Wall Street who are on the next level of fraud trying to convince gullible people that their asset-backed securities are "quality bond investments".

This repackaging of shit to make it look good has no hope in hell of being profitable from an investor angle. At a quick look, it is awesome the level of aggressive marketing being conducted by banks and brokers - they all have good movitation to dump crap. The products itself, although packaged to look good, consists of high amounts of sub-prime mortgage problems. Any bank should be paying investors to take that crap off their hands. Any investor who does buy will lose probably an average of 20% on their investment.

The one company which did go bust and where they were different to several others is American Home Mortgage Corporation. This company did not deal in sub-prime mortgages and catered to a good credit market. To sum up their position (part of an email to employees):

"... conditions in the US mortgage market had deteriorated to the point that our business was no longer viable".

Note - that has nothing to do with sub-prime - simply that the property market was an investment in a bubble and not viable.

The home market may only be one factor, tho a crucial element. The mentality of many people who buy homes are that they are a "source of getting rich" - more fallacy.

Another aspect is industry itself - this has been run down in various ways (outsourcing blah) and is in a totally unfit condition to rise to the challenge of international markets - bottom line, there is little to offer.

One of the biggest debts (if not the biggest), is the commitment by the US government to it's electorate who contributed to pensions. These funds no longer exist and this month will be the start of payouts to "baby boomers", but the coffers are empty.

There are many more factors and little positive on the horizon. Changes of government create blips of hope, but depending on the degree of effective attention given to the economy, there is not likely to be a change of course. If you watched a pack of cards fall - this is a similar image.

Bottom line - can't see any prospect of light at the end of the tunnel for ten years, - and that needs competent fiscal management which appears unlikely to come from any prospective leadership at the moment or in the near future time.

So, you got dollars? Cash em in for any other stable currency - bets on they will do nothing but depreciate in value.

the 1.03 - 1.04 is NOT the bank rate that is just what
Yahoo Financials shows at . That means even LESS
If you are talking about the
bank exchange rate you are talking about an additional 1% :disgust

soon dollar will grow up
if not... next down...

I don't know how you can generalize the housing industry like that. While there are areas in the US that are going to get hit hard, there are areas that won't. It depends on where you live. There are still cities in the US that are seeing phenomenal growth in property value.

As for housing dropping 20-30%, I've yet to see a single financial analyst predict that across the board. Do you have any links to show this is the case?

My prediction it will be at its highest point from jan-to march and then will pplumet before the summer. It will go up during the above said period... comparing to the Canadian Dollar at least.

I agree with this
The home market may only be one factor, tho a crucial element. The mentality of many people who buy homes are that they are a "source of getting rich" - more fallacy.

Suckers getting mortgage are paying x3 for their house... they dont know how to use a calculator and figure out the renting and investing will be much more prudent

Not cherry picking areas PK - it's a waste of effort. The housing market as a whole will be affected - tho we can probably exclude eg Manhattan. For the vast majority of people on average, there will be an effect and, it's the vast majority who matter.

Frankly, I don't believe a word being said by any Wall Street financial analyst - they are from the same stable as those who encouraged and marketed sub-prime mortagages and got their own companies up shit creek in the process. These are now the companies who have a vested interest in dumping their "assets" to unsuspecting investors in an effect to reduce their burden and risk. Working hand in hand with Wall Street are the banks who have more property than is prudent to hold - especially when this is a depreciating asset. Basically, none of them have any credibilty - they are busy trying to cover their own asses right now.

This buying of homes shit is not only restricted to "wage earners" - even people with reasonable wealth have been playing that game. There is no end they will stop at to earn a dollar - even tho it is well-known there is a bubble and a fair chance it will burst.

It was only a short time ago the tendency was to use a home as an ATM while living a fantasy, tho that has reduced massively and the tendency now is borrow more money to pay the mortgage on an often depreciating asset. Bottom line, they can't afford to live the livestyle they think they have.

Only my :2 cents:, but a home is for living in and is the last "line of defense" and something not worth speculating over. If someone wants to go into the property market - another story.

who gives a flying fuck is a better question.
USD is in a shit place right now because of the deficit and it turns people away from wanting to invest in the USD or the US cause of the higher risk in the currency.
China also holds a lot of USD bonds.
In theory they can distroy the USD if they wanted to by selling all the bonds and converting those USD funds to any other currency.
The US is selling those bonds to pay for the wars.
It's really a loose loose situation and the only way to get out of it is to do what we as individuals do, spend less and pay off the debts.
Until that happens, buy Canadian $$$$$

Bump for a good thread...

Later,

.

I'm not talking about Wall Street analysts. I'm talking about any financial person on the planet. I've yet to see one predict the kind of declines in housing you are suggesting will happen. I would think that one person in this world with an accredited economics/financial background would take your stance on this.

yeah it depends to all people concerned:thumbsup:thumbsup:thumbsup

That would have been true in 2004 ...

Now it is too late:

Both Republicans and democrats are now catering to the same " undecided " crowd... They both are now taking about their faith ( I just can;t understand WTF this has to do with politics ) , how and to whom and how often they do pray ...

I watch our news taking about real issues, then I watch the US news talking about religion, faith, gay marriages, abortion and war ..

Your country is FUCKED :2 cents:

What is Euro ?!?!? :) From a UK perspective I would like the US$ to be the strongest currency in the world but at the moment there's not much between it and the Linden $ !

I really don't know much about the economy, but it seems that the US dollar fell in relation to the current president George Bush. It was very high with Clinton.

Put a democrat back in office and the dollar should start doing a little bit better in the next 2-3 years

what do you guys think?

at this rate the US dollar will be the Amero in 10 years.

It is really worthless now. We just print the money. We had to raise the debt cap on Oct 1st and we are borrowing 3 billion a day just to pay for the war. We are broke.

There are plenty financial people on the planet who have no doubts that there will be a substantial reduction in US home values - generally for a few years ahead.

Every "accredited" (basically qualified) person I know are playing the same tune and have been for a fairly long time now - a few even predicted the current scenario over two years ago. As background, most of them deal on international markets and are responsible for substantial investment values - they ain't kids and currently would not dream of dumping their clients funds into Wall Street or the US home market.

If you want a "name" to followup on - try Robert Shiller - he's a Professor of Economics at Yale. There are plenty references and articles by him on the net. You may find Shiller's S&P Case Chart interesting - nobody has cared to contest this.

Who knows what will happen in practice in the end - but, either way, it's not going to be a pretty picture. The home market is a bubble of a magnitude of 85% over the last five years. There is no cost or scarcity reasons to justify this rise and, as Shiller himself describes it - it is no more than "irrational exuberance".

Sure, there are plenty other factors on the horizon which may not appeal, but the home market is obviously crucial in that it accounts for almost.. think, 30% of the economy. Next on the hit list, (tho it's already started) are retailers - and the ripples spread outwards.

BTW - the US is not the only country with an overstated real estate value - Canada and the UK have their share and same with where I am (Costa Rica). The difference is the economic background is not so precarious, nor are these nations deep in debt - they all operate a relatively balanced economy in line with their revenue collection and international trading ability.

You said it with "Now it is too late" - tho we can always live in hope, but that's like joining the economic fantasy club and trying to convince ourselves it's not true.

Seriously don't give a shit about what any ratass potential politician has to say on this - it's past the stage of playing politics and time to do some work. As an aside, can't see one ounce of economic solution coming from any of the "celebs" offering the best democracy money can buy. Where does that leave the US? But ... if unqualified idiots are elected - there is little you can do.

i duno what's gonna happen, man

I am not arguing what you're saying. I'm just asking if you could provide a link to it. I've yet to read anyone who believes the housing industry will fall 30%. If you say that there are plenty of people projecting it, I'm interested in reading it.


The UK yes, but not Canada. Canada has a huge public debt just like the US.

update your facts ...

we have been having surplus for many years, allocatyed to debt payment.

So our debt is reducing, while our PNB is rising ... The ratio between both is getting better every day ... Not the case of the USA.

I know Canada has been working to pay down the debt and has had record surplusses. Greywold stated that Canada wasn't deep in debt, I simply pointed out the fact that they are. In a few years I'm sure that will be much different.