2257 What Is Going To Happen
 

From www.mikesouth.com

I have been analyzing all this from a purely political perspective and I believe I see where all of this is going to go.

you see right now the government has a problem with obscenity prosecutions, that being that only the edgiest stuff even has a chance at drawing a conviction. Most citizens (of which juries are made up) don?t see porn as any really big deal. Most seem to consider porn to be a waste of the Justice Departments time and resources.

Along comes 2257, the record keeping act, the one that has nothing to do with protecting children and everything to do with adding federal red tape to the industry. The law was vaguely written, over encompassing and flat out unconstitutional on all but the most broad interpretations.

But is the law really written solely for that purpose? Or, is it somethng much more sinister?

As I have watched the inspections and listened to the reports of the results I am hearing that about 95% of the companies are failing the inspections. It would appear to me that is by design.

Let us peer into the not so distant future. Congress, being the self appointed watchdog of ?the children? releases a new study, It looks something like this:

5 Year study concludes that 95% of all adult entertainment companies fail to prove that they aren?t using minors in hardcore pornography. A Spokesperson for the US Justice department alongside one for the FBI hold a press conference where they decry that pornography producers all over the U.S. may be employing underaged boys and girls in the production of pornography, they go on to state that the ID requirements set forth by the federal government have NOT been followed and that there is a high probability that almost every company in porn is using performers under the age of 18. They will be followed by Republican and Democratic Politicians calling for an end to this scourge.

The press goes wild. Every single newspaper in the country, every television newscast picks up the story and suddenly, we are no longer seen as benign, we are perverted child pornographers and no amount of reaction from our industry is going to change that view.

The Juries are no longer apathetic towards us, we are evil incarnate and we must be stopped.

Obscenity convictions just got a lot easier.

What can we, as an industry do to head this off? I have some ideas, I want to hear yours.

IF that were to happen that way sure it would be a nightmare and stamp everyone in adult with the shit stamp, however not everyone believes everything they hear, millions dont read so they wont see, and so on. Overall though IF that were to go down like that, it would certainly be a nightmare.

Mike, you need to put the pipe down.

The 95% failing the inspections apparently are failing them on more technical reasons. Only one producer checked didn't have records. Everyone else had records, maybe just not indexed to the government's satisfaction. At this point, there is not a single indication of a minor being part of the "above board" adult industry.

"fail to prove they don't use minors" is a great one, because the reply question would be "how many charges of CP have been made? None? Why not? Why are you so worried about this or that, when you cannot be even bothered to file charges against companies that are, in your words, failing to prove their performers are not children?"

Outside of two isolated cases (both apparently involving faked or borrowed ID cards by the performers) there is no record of any underage performers in the mainstream adult world since, well, a long damn time.

Without prosecutions of failed record keepers, the politicians would be opening them up for a huge scandal by making such wild claims and not being able to back it up with a track record of charges and convictions.

rawalex...You are the one who needs to put the pipe down.

I didnt say that anyone was shooting underage performers...I said thats how we will be painted. They arent going to make a distinction and say that they were simply clerical violations, that would defeat the purpose.
You obviously don't understand PR or Politics. It isn't about the truth, it's about the perception.

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

As Mike pointed out, there are no prosecutions needed. The simple, evil and effective formula is:

2257 was made to protect minors + most companies fail 2257 inspections = Most companies must use minors as actors

Politicians don't make any claims they'd need to back up, they just present simplified facts and let the dumb masses make their own conclusions.

Apparently we have some real deer in the headlights round here....Stark Reality gets it.

This would be big trouble.

Don't give them any ideas with election season in full swing...

Mike is right we live in a sound bite world, they will take advantage of that.

more convicted felons in congress than the NBA.

i dont know whats gonna happen

Nope, you miss the point entirely. Politicians aren't dumb. Nobody wants to stand in front of the public and claim that they have found all this lawlessness without some sort of prosecutions. The very first question that anyone in the media would ask would be "How many people have gone to jail because of all of this CP", and the answer would be "nobody", and the next question would be "why" and the answer would be "Because in the end, all the models were legal adults and this is just a paperwork issue".

Nobody in politics gets involved in something that is going to make them look like assholes or has the major potential to backfire in their faces. With the middle of the road voters swinging to the more liberal side of things, this just ain't gonna be an issue for a long time to come. The next time the bible thumpers and the do-gooders get elected, then you might have something. But so far it is looking like 8 years of Hillary from where I stand, and she is going to be too busy pushing health care and talking to iranian men to bother.

Alex, you do live in a dream world don't you?

You seem to think politicians are this altruistic bunch.

You talk straight from the Democratic talking points.

Do you really think they wouldn't use this negative PR as the REASON to prosecute us? Come on man you can't be that politically naive

Can you?

PS I wouldn't hang my hat on Hillary just yet were I you...Its a LONG way to November 2008 and Al Gore could derail her easily, not to mention one slip of the tongue.

And don't count out Ron Paul just yet either.

i hope you get nailed so hard sooner or later for obscenity or something else..hope all your shit is in check ... heehhehe

another dumb southern hick , gl "Mike" lollll

I can count ron paul out already. The term "fringe" doesn't even begin to cover how far off to one end he is.

As for Al Gore, I think he is enjoying being the former next president of the united states too much to actual try it again. However, I would say that he would make an excellent running mate for Hillary, if Obama can't be talked into it.

man cant wait for the feds to knock on your door and catch ya with your pants down

lolll i long for the day

A "fail" is a "fail" and while you and I know what it means, the general population does not and mainstream press would without question not tell the little details about why the failed. At best you would get "95% OF ALL PORN COMPANIES FAIL INSPECTIONS TO PROTECT MINORS!"

No you didn't but I'll say that for you.

As for this, Mike, you really don't understand politics. First of, I am in Canada, and I don't use "democratic talking points". What I say is my opinion, like it or not. If it lands in the middle of the democrats, well, that is your point of view.

Politicians never open a box unless they are reasonably confident about what will happen when they do. They come forward with successes, not failures. Look at what happened the last time they called the FBI up to ask them about 2257 inspections. The FBI laughed and pretty much said they had better things to do in life than check IDs in the porn business. It then took congress about another 2 years to make enough budget space and time to actually have a dozen or so people assigned to do this stuff. So far this year there have been, what, a dozen or so inspections? At this pace, they should be done with the known DVD production companies by about 2023. The FBI has little or no interest. Prosecutors so far have shown little interest, even with the case of the primary producer with NO IDs on hand at all. I suspect something may happen with that one, but the rest so far appear to have been technicalities of not properly cross referencing or indexing, and in some case, by having too many IDs on hand for non-participating characters in the DVDs.

So the politicians would have what after almost 18 months of inspections? 1 idiot with no paperwork, and a bunch of other companies that have minor / technical violations that according to the FBI are getting cleared up in many cases pretty much directly.

The AG isn't going to want to go to court with a weak case for fear of losing. It isn't a far stretch to show that the new rules are burdensome, and further that the FBI even without proper cross referencing had apparently few problems to identify models and get correct information.

None of the inspections have turned up any underage performers.

None of the inspections have turned up any CP.

So, exactly what would a politician go out there with? "95% of adult companies that were inspected had minor technical violations on their paperwork because of our burdensome and poorly explained systems"? Or perhaps "in all of our inspections, we were unable to obtain a proper list of other stage names for 15% of all performers"?

They have to have something to stand on, something that will stand up to a one minute scrutiny. Picture your thing on the NBC nightly news. On one hand you have a spewing uptight bible thumping moron back bencher junior senator from wherever pounding on about this stuff, followed by a quote from the FBI, and a longer quote from the FSC or similar that says "not a single prosecution, not a single underage performer found, not a single title pulled from the shelves, nothing other than issues with paperwork because congress wrote and passed burdensome laws that are difficult to keep up with".

Boom, senator buttfuck has shit all over his face where his shit pie exploded right in front of him.

Without valid prosecutions, without a list of underage performers, without a list of pulled titles, or a list of CP websites shut down as a result of 2257 inspections, you can expect them to be VERY quiet on the subject.

OK Juicy D whats YOUR fucking problem?

Or are you still pissed from when I called you out on your little attention cry scare tactic?

As for Alex.....I been doing this since 2002 (blogging) you know how many times Ive said...."Told Ya So"?

Anyway wouldn't it make more sense to proactively attempt to derail it, cuz reactive aint gonna work.....

As for DWB I dont doubt that what you say is true, particularly when it comes to product from Third World Countries. But tell me DWB have you seen any indication that what they are really looking for is child pornographers?

Alex you still dont get it...Probably because you ARE Canadian and don't really understand our politics. It isn't about why you failed...it's THAT you failed.

The only people here gonna have egg on their faces are the porn community, bet on it.

Sorry Mike, I have been at this since before COPA, the original. The reality is there is a bunch of sabre rattling every so often, but without actual provable cases to stand up in front of people and crow about, they aren't going to go wild.

Why do you think they snuck the 2257 rules into the ass end of "Adam's Law"? Because taken alone, the new 2257 rules would never have passed.

Without a "filthy pornographer" in jail serving time for making CP in the Valley, they aren't going to have much to work with, certainly nothing that would stand up to even passing scrutiny by the media.

It's just not done that way.

It may not be done that way in Canada but it's done that way here every single day.

watch what I tell ya.

my political science education points to the need to create a dragon before it can be slain. Porn isn't that dragon. Yet.