Weak dollar propels US exports to high
 

Weak dollar propels US exports to high
By Eoin Callan in Washington

Published: August 14 2007 15:02 | Last updated: August 14 2007 21:16

Strong global growth is creating record demand for US exports and providing a critical support for the US economy at a time of heightened domestic risks, figures showed on Tuesday.

Wall Street economists lifted their estimates for US growth after a government report showed exports rose to an all-time high as the trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly to $58.1bn (?43bn, £29bn) in June from $59.2bn a month earlier.

Economists said faster growth in Asia, Europe and Latin America and a weaker dollar was increasing demand for US goods and helping to offset the housing downturn. The politically sensitive trade deficit with China rose.

Gary Bigg, an economist at Bank of America, said: ?The combination of a weaker trade value of the US dollar, solid global growth and moderating US demand is contributing to a growth-boosting improvement in trade.?

Separate figures showed inflation in the price of core wholesale goods also cooled last month.

The slowdown in producer prices reinforced calls from investors for the Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke to cut interest rates and help alleviate the credit crisis that has shaken financial markets in recent days.

Policymakers have maintained a hawkish stance on inflation despite mounting risks to growth from the collapse in the subprime mortgage market and an increase in the cost of borrowing for households and companies.

Economists said the strong performance of the US export sector had improved the US outlook.

Haseeb Ahmed, an economist at JPMorgan, said: ?The trend is clearly positive. The improvement in the trade balance provides a better starting point for the third quarter. Strong global growth conditions point to continued strength in exports in the second half of 2007.?

JPMorgan also raised its estimate for US economic growth in the last quarter to well above the 3.4 per cent initially estimated by the commerce department.

?A much narrower trade deficit than had been expected adds another 0.4 per cent to second-quarter GDP, taking [JPMorgan?s] forecast for economic growth to 4.4 per cent,? said Mr Ahmed.

Figures showed exports rose 1.5 per cent to $134.5bn in June, led by shipments of semiconductors and cars. The improvement in exports outpaced a rise in imports of 0.5 per cent to $192.7bn, the highest ever.

Nigel Gault, an economist at Global Insight, said: ?The economy remains vulnerable to the shock waves from the recent financial market turmoil but it is good to know that it was carrying more momentum than previously thought as the second quarter ended.?

Caterpillar, the manufacturer of heavy equipment, said recently that it was benefiting from overseas demand for earth-moving equipment in energy and mining sectors, which was offsetting tepid domestic demand for construction equipment.

But the company said that rising costs for inputs and raw materials such as aluminium and nickel were eroding profits.

The commerce department said core prices ? excluding volatile food and energy prices ? rose 0.1 per cent, the smallest gain in three months.

But overall producer prices were lifted by rising energy costs, and increased 0.6 per cent.

It also propells US living costs up as the US isnt a self supportive coutry and relies on imports.

So yes exports when up but then also did China's ownership of you.

As usual with spin - "propel" is a gross exaggeration.

The level of spin from Wall Street and mainstream media over the last year has been noticeable - all an attempt to retain confidence, but where the facts/performance don't match the tales.

A weak dollar is, overall, not a good thing. Consumption levels greatly exceed exports and the cost of paying for imports with cheap dollars far exceeds any export gains. Tho sure, - there "should" at least be some increase in exports. There has never been a trading surplus for almost 40 years - fat chance of it happening now.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street spin continues - from one of the worst performing markets in the world with annual gains of under 3.5% over the last five years. Neighboring Canada and Mexico far exceed that level.

BTW BP - Is there any news reports in Europe of quanitities of imported product from China being recalled because of manufacturing faults/risks??

Ya can't help wonder why there are so many reported faults in US media which were magically discovered in the last year when the US is trying to get China to revalue it's currency to the satisfaction of the US :)

Some faults are presumably genuine, but does raise some questions as to why they all happen now when the banker is not being paid.

Mattel Recalls Millions of Toys in Europe
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,...738985,00.html

EU: China hasn't kept promise to give report on manufacturers of recalled goods
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/...d-Products.php

EU Not Satisfied With Chinese Reports
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/...ap3946656.html

EU: Ban on China goods not protectionism
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/finan.../D8QIQTDG0.htm

The EU in 2006 identified 924 products -- from unsafe lighters to wobbly strollers to short-circuiting kettles -- as too dangerous to be sold in its 27 member nations, plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway.

China was the country of origin in almost half of the cases, while over a quarter of all goods the EU imports are from China.

Beijing is battling international mistrust centered around Chinese exports which have been found to contain potentially toxic chemicals and additives. China has recently taken steps aimed at recapturing global confidence in its commitment to ensuring that food, drugs and other products are safe.

Thanks for these links! Yea.. there is a problem globally :thumbsup

In another world we used to import adult products from China and Hong Kong and generally never had much problems - but, we did sample checking anyways. It's surprising that there appears to be very little checking, either at the point of manufacture (cheaper to resolve issues) or when goods are imported.

"$58.1bn (€43bn, £29bn) in June from $59.2bn a month earlier"

What's a billion more or less?

This report is PROPAGANDA, journalists write what they are told to.

Is this why the dollar strengthened in the last 2 days?

for the last time. the usa lives on borrowed money. The usa is bankrupt, finito, kaput, over :)

Think it was more related to changes in credit fears - there is a problem over the levels of credit within the US and gloomy news and unpredictabily over the mortgage market and a predicted reduction of performance by US retailers.

The Fed Reserve injected $38 bill into the banking system in the last few days to keep liquidity - this was the highest amount since Sept 11th.

Well yeah - true :) Would be nice to see some balance and monetory policy in place instead of constant loans to maintain an unsustainable fantasy - but that's gonna take at least 10 years and doubt it will ever happen till shit hits the fan and the credit card is maxed to the hilt.

it's just bad news after bad news for this country.. so depressing