How many sales to pay-sites per day?
 

How many signups do you think this industry (as a whole) sells per day to pay-site membership sites?

Including trials, monthly, yearly, etc. Not counting free memberships.

I bet there's some webmasters who could give some pretty educational guesses. If I had to guess, I'd say around 100,000 per day.

Mission Impossible
 

not including recurring?

Thats very hard to say.. its a lot!!

100k is a pretty good estimate, how many do you send to paysites is the real question? :thumbsup

Its easily way more than one :)

Yeah new sign-ups per day only (not including recurring).

100,000 would be a good guess.

What do you think the recurring base is at then, somewhere in the 5 million range

just think about the opportunity you only have to be responsible for .15% of daily sales in this buisness and your a fucking millionaire

estimating the recurring base would be somewhat easy if you had a somewhat accurate initial count

~ 85,000 new signups/day is my guestimate :)

Take the yearly grosses of paycom and ccbill (if you can get em') add 50% for a nice round guestimate of all the companies that have their own merchant accounts and other alternative billing.

Divide by 365 and divide again by $30 for another round gustimate of full monthly memberships (forget about trials this is a bogus formula anyway)

There you go

You're all welcome.

Nothing else to see here.

Lock the thread!

:1orglaugh

1.25 - 2 new SU per day (one per 50-75k of the traffic), full classic SU, not some 3 bucks...

Rebills alone are too tough to measure from back in they day!

You mean just Adult Friend Finder alone right?

From "The Professors" Ambush Interview:

We talk more in terms of registered members - Adult Friend Finder, the network of personals sites and cams.com sign up over 160,000 people each day. One of the neat things about so much activity on the sites is that the energy it produces rocks the conversion rates. There's about 20 million active members on Adult Friend Finder alone. Last time I checked, we had over 300K affiliates registered - with a great team of about 20 who help support them. All in all, it takes about 300 people to keep the site rolling.

160,000 joins a day between AFF/Cams.com......

Your way off, I cant even imagine how many joins per day this industry does. :)

Jim

Those do not involve a CC its a profile.. Kick me if I am wrong

A good place to start would be figuring out how many programs are out there...YNot has 1,747 adult sponsor programs listed.

Off the top of my head I will name some paysite sponsors that do 1k initials, over 1k, or close to 1k daily (I'm not including live cam, VOD or dating in this calculation):

Bang Bros
Naughty America
Top Bucks
Pimp Roll / Adult Elite
Perfect Gonzo
Silver Cash
Nasty Dollars
Platinum Bucks
Adult.com
WEG Cash
CE Cash
Python

There's 12 in the unordered list, so let's say 20k initial txns over those top sponsors since some probably are closer to 2 maybe 3k and some closer to 1k and in case I left anyone off -sorry if I left anyone off. Those are somewhat rough guesses, but those are the big paysite sponsors in case anyone's curious.

Now we have 1736 sponsors left on the list. Let's break them down to 3 more categories: Mid level(250-1000), low level(100-250) and scrubs(<100) :) These are pretty realistic breakdowns.

I'm going to use the 80/20 rule on the rest of the groupings starting with the scrubs to categorize...

Scrubs: .80 * 1736 = 1388 Scrubs
Low Level: .80 * (1736 - 1388) = 278 Low Level
Mid Level: .80 * (1736 - (1388 + 278)) = 70 Mid Level

I'm going to break mid-level down again using the 80/20 rule because it's a pretty large spectrum (250 - 1000 txns). Low-mid level I would classify between 250-500 and high-mid level as 500-1000.

Low-Mid Level: .80 * 70 = 56
High-Mid Level: 70 - 56 = 14

Breaking down the large grouping of scrubs into scrubs and super-scrubs, assume 80% do less than 20 txns a day and 20% do 20-100 txns a day.

Super-scrubs: .80 * 1388 = 1110
Scrubs: 1388 - 1110 = 278

On top of the 20k initial txns from the large programs, I'm just going to take the median number from each grouping and multiply by the rough amount of sponsors in that grouping.

High Level: 20,000
High-Mid Level: 14 * 750 = 10,500
Low-Mid Level: 56 * 375 = 21,000
Low Level: 278 * 175 = 48,650
Scrubs: 278 * 60 = 16,680
Super-Scrubs: 1110 * 10 = 11,100

20000 + 10500 + 21000 + 48650 +16680 + 11100 = 127930 initial txns

I think that the high and high-mid groupings look pretty on point, low-mid level (250-500) is overinflated a little bit and low level looks like it's too high (:warning 278 programs who push 100-250 sales a day, not happening:warning ). I would also say that the starting point of 1747 active webmaster programs is too high as well :2 cents:

I would say 127k transactions is inflated and that slightly below the 100k range is a pretty decent estimate for daily initial paysite transactions :upsidedow

shit i added 1 program to the high level list so we should have started with 1735 programs not in the high level list

next question, what do you think is the average lifetime value across those 100,000 daily transactions? :pimp

Thats true, however he did say "registered members" so I'm guessing that it might be overall pay and free. Either way with conversions from free to paid on AFF/cams.com being so high (even in todays market) your looking at a decent amount of joins per day. Not including the massive rebill database they must have for the 20 million "registered members."

Im going to say that these there are alot more than just 100,000 joins being done in todays porn market. :)

Jim

I am going to bump for my buddy Rick because I think that this thread is totally interesting.