Champions league bets today
 

Its a lot tougher than yesterday to find value thats easy to call. The only ones I fancy are ridiculously short priced like Inter, Bremen and Valencia :(

But if I had to pick tougher ones I would probably go for Roma and Bayern who both have tricky away trips, and maybe Bordeaux as Liverpool have a few players out.

I should have bet on CSKA Moscow last night.. Just had that feeling !

Bayern is a winner in my pick , they are a cup team, never count out Lpool , liked what i saw on Saturday , bad in fron of the goal ,but they almost never play bad in CPL , i dont think Bordeaux gonna beth them , an draw or Lpool takes it home ,probaly an draw .... but not easy tonighht

Everyones forgetting about the big one. Chelsea and Barcelona. How is this one gonna go? I think Barcelona will win, they seem to have that edge over Chelsea.

Im going to pick a total shocker. Inter is going to lose one nill to Spartak, Moscow.

Barca all the way!

From a betting perspective I dont want that one in my mix, however I would say that the home team tends to have the edge.

From my own site, www.prematches.com

Bordeaux - Liverpool
? Homewin: 7% (value odds 13.50)
? Awaywin: 32% (value odds 3.16)
? Draw: 61% (value odds 1.64)

Chelsea - Barcelona
? Homewin: 32% (value odds 3.08)
? Awaywin: 41% (value odds 2.43)
? Draw: 26% (value odds 3.78)

Galatasaray - PSV Eindhoven
? Homewin: 25% (value odds 4.00)
? Awaywin: 47% (value odds 2.12)
? Draw: 28% (value odds 3.60)

Inter Milano - Spartak Moskva
? Homewin: 78% (value odds 1.29)
? Awaywin: 0% (value odds 0.00)
? Draw: 22% (value odds 4.47)

Olympiakos - Roma
? Homewin: 48% (value odds 2.08)
? Awaywin: 36% (value odds 2.78)
? Draw: 16% (value odds 6.25)

Sporting Lisboa - Bayern München
? Homewin: 32% (value odds 3.17)
? Awaywin: 53% (value odds 1.90)
? Draw: 16% (value odds 6.33)

Valencia - Shakhtar Donetsk
? Homewin: 82% (value odds 1.21)
? Awaywin: 12% (value odds 8.50)
? Draw: 6% (value odds 17.00)

Werder Bremen - Levski Sofia
? Homewin: 90% (value odds 1.11)
? Awaywin: 0% (value odds 0.00)
? Draw: 10% (value odds 10.00)

Please explain this to non-gambler???


Inter Milano - Spartak Moskva
› Homewin: 78% (value odds 1.29)
› Awaywin: 0% (value odds 0.00) < ------ WTF
› Draw: 22% (value odds 4.47)

it my own simulator found at www.prematches.com .. it uses trends, stats, ratings, systems and history to come up with the numbers..

couple of trends from this match:

? Inter Milano playing against poor teams the last 3 seasons. [won 8/ 12] [66.67%]
? Spartak Moskva playing in October the last 3 seasons. [lost 5/ 6] [83.33%]

I've never see 0% for a team and the simulator gets more accurate the more games in the leagues. On the other hand Spartak has lost all games they've ever played away in the champions league and the score overall was 2-23 (no kidding).

Let me know if you want all the data from this game and I'll paste it..

Liverpool do well in Europe if Crouch is playing, big lanky bastard that he is.

Chelsea haven't had one blinding game all season, they are due...

Hope I'm not to late. Here are my tips for this evening
Chelsea - Barcelona X
Sporting Lisboa - Bayern München 2
Werder Bremen - Levski Sofia 1

Chelsea-Barcelona 1

Well, not too bad. My main bet was very easy to pick and the stake of &#163;120 is only going to get a return of about &#163;200.

Roma and Bayern came in on the other bet however I picked Bordeaux who have cost me a big win. I will still get my money back from the other 2 though :)