Do any of you have the balls to buy real estate in California these days?
 

Rates = rising

Those IO, double reverse flip top no papers ARMs with whip cream are about OWN the greedy speculators.

How hard of a hit will the Bay Area get. San Diego?

Or do you think the gains are permanent?

yes i do

hats off to ya. are you in the SF area, east bay area or silicon valley?

By the way, I hope i'm wrong.

I have a shack behind a 7-11 in La Jolla.

I have a place in Lomita, 30 yr fixed.

No way I would take a variable ARM or interest only

you're in good shape. I don't have the story to back it up, but it said MOST of new mortages in Cali are shady ARM IO speculative nonsense. Once those speculators start going bust, that could cause herd-like panic. That does NOT bode well for the economy.

There is no 7-11 in La Jolla.

yeah I think a lot of people are going to lose thier place when that starts to happen, all those dummies getting IO loans when every finance in the world tells you to stay away from them unless you're a pro at flipping these houses.

I rent out the lomita house for 3k/mth and I'm in it for the long term. If the market starts going bust that just means I'm gonna buy a few more houses while they're cheap.

I would, but can't afford it right now

long term = gravy.

as long as you can weather a 10-12 year storm. The last time this happened in Cali, I knew a guy who was underwater for 9 years. I'm sure you're making enough cake to handle any negative cash flow if (god forbid) it happens.

yep yep. I am still buying. houses are sitting a lot longer on the market out here in socal. makes for better deals. :winkwink:

10-12 years is a LONG time, in that time you could have invested the same amount of money elsewhere, and easily doubled or even tripled it....

irrational exuberance. Greenspan gave a 3-4 years warning about the stock market in 1996. Now he's saying the same thing about the hot areas of the real estate market. read: California.

Trying to get myself in a situation to take advantage of the panic.

Take me advice for what's it's worth - probably nothing. But people are screaming for inflation, which wouldn't make your cash savings worth far less. While I do see a temporary spike in inflation, I see the inevitable doomsday of deflation. Savers and bond-holders will be golden. Prices for all important things will plummet. Companies that have borrowed to stock inventory (most of them) will be fuxored. Consumers that have massive personal debt and no savings (almost all of them) will be fuxored. And no, I don't think precious metals will save you. Gold is a scam.

as long as you are fixed for at least 10 years or if you find a place that's under $300 per square foot, i think its a decent buy

buying a house or several is one of the safest investments you can make. I have a bunch of money in a Vanguard mutual fund that isn't giving me nearly the return as the appreciation on the house, and like butthole says, if you can make the mortgage you can ride out any storm until the value returns.

lose your ass in the stock market and it's just gone, it ain't coming back.

i agree with most of that you say. But there are some analalysts that say hot areas could be cut in half or even more. The unprecedented run-up had zero to do with fundamentals, and all to do with reckless lending and WW2-era interest rates. this could dwarf any previous real estate bear market by orders of magnitude.

but seriously - HOPE i'm dead wrong.

I have a house in north cali, I'm moving, had to figure out what to do with it, so I got a renter, I want to keep this house for my retirement, bought it for 85k in 2000, now it's worth 300k

whoops, double post

they ALWAYS say that, anytime the prime interest rate is reasonable and people start getting loans. I do think there will be a slowdown on new buys and maybe a little fallback in value in the short term, but in Cali the historical trend has been that values skyrocket, then stay stable for a few years, then skyrocket again. They hardly EVER go down.

that's just fucking insane.

Keep on renting it out while you live somewhere else. Let someone else make the mortage payment for you :)

but has there ever been a period where home prices have risen astronomically in such a short of time? these gains are simply defying the laws of economics. They are not tied to any fundamentals at all.

they're tied to the low prime rate, which is being raised at a sane pace. I don't see anything to get worked up about.

im in the silicon valley

I agree 100% the only thing thats saved my ass was my Real Estate when I had to rebuild in this industry.. the one thing you cant take is Land from someone. I think its the safest investment by far. Florida still has alot of room to grow so its very safe.

We continue to breed and multiply until that stops people will always be buying homes as their first long term investment. Thats eveyones dream:2 cents:

They have never gone down LOL they only take a 10% dip for a few years and then Sky rocket again like you said. Real Estate is the safest bet as long as you can make the payments on it and dont over extend yourself.
Everyone works for their dream home not Stock Portfolio:2 cents:

I hope you're right. But considering how many of the recent mortgages are ARMs, even nominal increases in rates could start a bloodbath:



Foreclosures May Jump As ARMs Reset

This year, more than $300 billion worth of hybrid ARMs will readjust for the first time. That number will jump to approximately $1 trillion in 2007, according to the MBA. Monthly payments will leap too, many beyond what homeowners can afford.


But as the housing market slows, experts expect foreclosures to skyrocket in those areas that have experienced the highest appreciation rate -- like California, Florida, Virginia and Washington, D.C.

California, where the median home price reached $468,000 in April, leads the nation in the percentage of homes purchased with adjustable rate mortgages. Nationwide, ARMs account for 24 percent of all home loans. <-- :warning

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060619/foreclosure.html?.v=11

that's the plan, I figure I'd like to retire here, but have to work elsewhere