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CTV.ca News Staff

While Tim Hortons shares won't hit the market for days, there is already a feeding frenzy for them.

However, if you want to buy into the initial public offering of Tim Hortons stock, you're likely out of luck.

"Your chances of getting Tim Hortons shares on the initial public offer are going to be slim to none," said Pat Naccarato of AIC Investment Services.

"I guess its going to be a hot IPO and everyone is trying to get a share of it but its hard to get," said investor Steve Li.

Fellow investor Ming Lee has resigned himself to buying the shares on the open market. "That's fine, that's fine. It's like winning the lottery -- I just don't have a chance," he said.

The venerable chain is one of the great Canadian business stories of the past quarter-century.

Toronto Maple Leafs defenceman Tim Horton and Ron Joyce, a former Hamilton police officer and franchisee of the first Tim Hortons store, founded the chain.

Wendy's paid $580 million for the franchise in 1995, but now wants to spin it off.

Demand for the stock has pushed up the initial price up.

Tim Hortons Inc., owned by Wendy's International Inc., plans to raise the price of its stock up by about 20 per cent.

The shares will likely be priced between $25 to $27 Cdn per share. The previous price range was between $21 to $23 per share, the company said late Monday.

The company did not say why it raised the share price range.

Tim Hortons, based in Oakville, Ont., has also granted underwriters the option to buy an additional 4.35 million shares of its common stock at the IPO price.

The 33 million shares could raise about $890 million, based on the amended offering.

While analysts say this is a good company that is well run, it is also a mature company and some analysts are cautious about the opportunity for investors, said CTV's business editor Linda Sims.

"The question is: How much is the company going to grow and therefore, how much are the shares going to grow?" Sims told CTV Newsnet.

There are one Tim Hortons in Canada for every 11,000 people. "That is twice the penetration that McDonald's has in the United States," said Sims.

She said Tim Hortons is counting on growth in the United States. There are 288 Tim Hortons outlets in the United States.

"So again, some concerns about this restaurant, which is not well-known at all in the U.S.," said Sims.

One analyst sounded pessimistic.

"Their growth in the future is going to come from expansion in the U.S. -- and the U.S. landscape is littered with Canadians who've failed in their U.S. expansion," said Laura Wallace of Coleford Investment Management.

Even with the sale of the 33 million shares, Wendy's would still own about 83 per cent of Tim Hortons. It plans to spin off the rest of the shares by the end of the year.

Key shareholders pressured Wendy's, which has had sluggish sales compared to Tim Hortons' steady growth, to unload its Tim Hortons shares.

Tim Hortons plans to list its common shares on the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange using the THI symbol.

The company said it will use net proceeds from the IPO to repay debt owed to Wendy's.

In 2005, Wendy's revenue rose four per cent to $3.78 billion from $3.64 billion in 2004, but sales at Wendy's restaurants that have been open one year or longer fell 3.7 per cent for all of 2005. It was the first such decline in 18 years.

In 2005, Tim Hortons earned a profit of $191.1 million on sales of $1.48 billion.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNew...hub=TopStories

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