State of the Industry: Newbies and Traffic
 

Last night someone asked me why I didn't open up my own program after leaving Lightspeed Cash, and instead went to work for Yanks Cash. The answer was pretty simple for me: Why bother to open up yet another program only to compete for the same traffic everyone is fighting over?

Think about it. In the past two -three years there has been a huge increase in "new programs". At the same time, I think the over all population on the Internet - meaning people new to the Internet - is decreasing. The end result is that we have more people fighting over the same pot of traffic, and there seems to be less and less to go around.

Does anyone think we are shooting ourselves in the foot by embracing newbies and encouraging them to get into the business?

Short answer yes, long answer would be no.

And the above answer would be the diplomatic one......

:1orglaugh :1orglaugh :1orglaugh

Technically YES is longer than NO.

Not only that you don't even have to be a "real" webmaster anymore. I am all for helping out affiliates but making and submitting galleries for them and just the total amount of free porn out there is fucking it up for all of us.

I agree, though I want to say there's a reason why the answer should just be "yes"...

Otherwise valid argument, except: "At the same time, I think the over all population on the Internet - meaning people new to the Internet - is decreasing."

The amount of new people coming in is increasing constantly, but percentagewise the surfers/affiliateprogram-ratio has gone worse. :)

..and we definately should make the entrance to the industry harder..but whatcha gonna do?

So long as you're happy, Richard -- :thumbsup




2hp

click my sig..send 1 join, kill 1 noob, get an xbox

We are definitly ruining the traffic but there is nothing we can do about it as it became industry standard

Really?

Five years ago very few of my family and friends outside of the industry had an email account or where online. Now, I don't know a single person who isn't on line. This includes my 89 year old grandmother who recently passed away.

When an ISP says "we opened up ten thousand new accounts last month" that's not a reflection of how many "new" people finally got onto the Internet. These are people who had accounts with other companies, moved, or what not.

Granted there are other countries where home computers and internet connections aren't common, but that traffic isn't worth nearly as much as the guy sitting at his computer in NYC wanting to jack off online.

I have been at this for ten years and before that I helped pioneer precommercial internet access. The growth in the US and much of the first world has slowed to a trickle.

In this business the pie may be as large but the size of the slices are smaller because there are so many slices. Like any business moving from pioneering to competitive phase there will be failures, consolidations and innovations.

As always 80% of the business will go to 20% of the players. If I were starting today I would not leap into adult and certainly would not start a new program unless it was an ego thing.

I would venture saying 'Really'. There's people outside NYC too.. I'm relatively sure internet hasn't taken off as well in the countryside yet, due to the lack of broadband.. technology will make it possible to get broadband soon, no matter how far you're from the nearest phone-center..or wtf you call it. The airwaves WILL make it possible soon.

Also, whether or not there's actually a huge increase in 'new' users, there is and will be a huge increase in broadband users as I mentioned above, which in turn means more active users..and possibly more intrest in spending money online. Do you remember how horrible it was to surf the net on 56kbps line? Nowdays all paysites are more or less 'video' sites.. no way a dial-up surfer is going to join up..unless he's a masochist. I am 99% sure the $$$ spent online increases in HUGE leaps year after the other.

But I don't know for a fact the status of the US since I live in one of the most technologically infested countries where broadband has been the standard for who knows how long.
Cellphones, actually smartphones, psps, ipods everything like that makes advances in technology. When UMTS, or other 3rd gen or 4th gen mobile devices come around there'll be a HUGE HUGE increase in money to be made.. and one would be smart to start planning for that... etc. There's always room for affiliateprograms who think slightly outside the box.

:)

*back to work*

wow youre clueless.
ever heard of competition and its effects on freemarket?

"people new to internet is decreasing"

rofl, no wonder you got fired from LS :1orglaugh

You have less than a thousand posts on GFY. This means your either a fake nick, a newbie, or a surfer. Which is it?

Go crawl back under your rock or something.

In an attempt to make sure that we have equal representation I would like to speak out for the Newbies.

I canhahaha8217;t believe that the idea of hahaha8220;making it harderhahaha8221; for new people is even being discussed seriously. How is the industry supposed to improve and evolve without new people and fresh ideas? Complacency does not breed innovation. Competition is what fosters growth.

I can understand why some people resist newbies and those are the people who need competition the most. People who have either become complacent in their position or those who do not have a system that they feel comfortable with are those who lead the lynch-the-newbies movement and logic says that those people will be forced to change. They will either be required to shift their paradigm in the wake of new sites and programs or they will be forced to change in the face of an evolving industry. It is very difficult for a new person to built, launch and profit from a new site. I can tell you that as a new webmaster I spend as much or more time nurturing my sites as any seasoned pro. The difference is that a great deal of my time is spent making unprofitable mistakes, however in the end I am sure that this time will be worth all the effort.

Not many years ago the online porn industry was a lot different. It had to be much easier to make a profit before the flood of Free Porn gateways, but would things today be better were it not for that change? How many of you would like to go back to the days before TGPhahaha8217;s and try to make a living with the uncontrolled traffic that was meandering all over the Internet? I am not exactly sure how to harness the traffic that I need but I am learning more every day. I for one can see how the free porn sites have made it easier for us, as an industry, to control the flow of traffic and like with any system when you gain in one area you often lose in another.

I would like to see more people on this site take an active role in helping new people versus trying to cover their wall with the dead bodies of those who have failed. In the log-run it will be better for everyone.

You fuckhead.

I would say that the US traffic is slowing down if you are talking about new connections to the internet in general.
I do see however that potential US paysite subscribers are still increasing each year as well as general internet users in the US with broadband connections.

i totally disagree with you

That would depend on what part of the country you are referencing. My primary business is in the Upper Mid-West and I can tell you that we are installing broadband wireless at an alarming rate. There are new people getting connected every day and many of the dial-up users (yes, we still have HUGE numbers of dial-up users out here) are getting new broadband connections.

When you look at the flat states like Minnesota, Nebraska, North and South Dakota, Wyoming? there are many rural areas that still have no connectivity and many more that are still on dial-up. The Internet is growing, but I guess that depends on what your idea of growth is.

I love all these new programs because they ALL need traffic :)

DH

I have yet to see this "embracing and encouraging" activity on this board...

I think I was not clear. I was saying broadband users are increasing though internet users as a whole are not increasing at the same pace as before.

Hmmm

I will have to completely disagree with you Rochard.

The US maybe seeing a "flat line" in growth of internet users, however the reason for that is as one person comes online the other leaves!(dies) There are lots of surfers to go around still.

As for the rest of the world, they have not even reached their potential. There are people around the world coming online as fast as they were in the US in 1999 - Greece for instance had a 500% increase of online users last year!
These statistics are based on Nielsen ratings! :thumbsup

I agree that at some point the system has to reach critical mass, but my experience suggests that there is still a pretty steady stream of new users coming into the system and when you add the number of new Interent users with the number of new credit card holders, new college students, the newly divorced... you can see how there are plenty of new porn buyers coming into the market.

What I was talking about.

YARGH! This was too easy. Every day a whole lot of 18 (ie adult) year old males get credit cards for the first time. :2 cents:

To put it in plain and simple business terms, the barriers of entry and exit from the industry are just arn't there. If you look at other industries, say soft-drinks for example, the barriers to exit and entry are much greater... which prevents every Tom, Dick, and Harry from jumping in. Getting into the internet porn industry is as simple as getting some cheap ass hosting from some oversold data center for $10-15 a month, applying for an epass account, and submitting galleries. The overall quality of a lot of websites is total shit, along with the content of many, of not most members areas of paysites. I think overall surfers will still tend to gravitate towards the better designed, content rich sites which only someone who knows the industry can provide. Overall I think "newbies" to the industry arn't that great of a threat because they represent such a small piece of the overall traffic pie that the amount of business they compete for is insigificant. Yes "anyone" could open up thier own program, but most programs arnt worth the bandwith they occupy. A well developed, well marketed program will still prosper no matter how saturated the market may seem.

</rant>

oops didn't see your post. So I'll add "What he said"

<OFF> PREACH TO CHOIR MODE </OFF>

The pie is being divided even more, true, but there's still plenty of money to be made. Unless you are sitting on a few million and don't need any more money there's no reason for someone of your caliber to settle for less. :2 cents:

the problem isn't new people or programs - "improve and evolve" like fr0gman said.

the 'foot-shooting' began when the common advice to a new person was "start a TGP", "start a freesite", etc. and even then, a new person still isn't considered "in". (fuck, i'm still trying to get "in")

If you have the best site in your niche it doesn't matter if there are other programs competing

It raises the bar and improves things

I agree 110%!

Growth, as Krosh observes, is not even close to being a problem.

Here's the trend that y'all sholuld be doing everything in your power to reverse:


http://profitlabinc.com/PIX/MACRO_TREND.gif





2hp

there are thousands of new internet users everyday!

Oh not this shit again. You people act like "new" internet users are the only consumers of porn.

I normally vehemently hate your posts but this time you are fucking spot on dude.

Congrats on 4K -- :thumbsup

You're right, 100% -- perhaps some of us should start marketing to the existing customer -- beyond the usual...

"Your membeship is about to (has expired) come on back..."


Or, "We didn't mean to rebill your CC without your permission, honest..."

e-mails.


Hmmmm -- :)

"Cock-in-hand" marketing may be efficient, but it has it's disadvantages.




2hp

Agreed....our U.S. sign-ups are stagnant but our European traffic has been insane...

I'm just saying the amount of new users is going down while the number of new programs and others trying to get their traffic is increasing. And I'm wondering if we aren't shooting ourselves in the foot by helping up these new people.....

Richard, I love ya -- but I would say you have your answer. The "club" is great for the members, until somebody tosses a molotov into your little tea party -- :)




2hp

Help them what, submit galleries? Smart people that will own a successful program one day don't need help doing the mindless shit that most webmasters do these days. They will do it quietly while nobody is looking.

Its the year 2006.

i slightly agree and lightly disagree.

heres why.

every year someone turns 18
every year new people get credit cards
every year new people get computers
every year new girls turn 18
every year more kids leave their parents house for college dorms
every year new people break up with girlfriends, get to the breaking point of physical attraction with the wife, or divorce

its a never ending cycle.

actually, the more the gov keeps telling people that porn is bad and they shouldn;t do it, the more people will do it. :winkwink: :winkwink:

:2 cents: of course.


new content and having aggressive promotional skills, materials, and incentives don't hurt. without unique shit, then i think you can say bye bye. cookie cutter stuff isn't gonna cut it anymore.

This is a great thread, for once on gfy, some real genuine points.

I think if you go back to basics and look at a niche that you like and exclusive content for that niche, you would be a good place to start. I think starting a site with a niche that you dont like would be pointless as you would not be excited about it, but with a niche that you like, you would be like a kid at christmas with it.

And a great place to end the discussion -- :thumbsup



2hp

Unless people wish to go back to the initial post which also asked about encouraging newbies to enter the business.

Someone mentioned the example of a soda company above. Gee, I don't see Pepsi having seminars on how to make soda pop or talking about they package their product. We do. We have entire resource sites based on teaching pepole how to make websites, galleries, TGPs; YNOT is sellng a DVD for newbies - not to mention we have newbie seminars at every large convention we have.

Start here http://www.ameribev.org/ Then check into homebrewing and a few other areas. Yup everything you need to know and organizations and even conventions.