Who is good at math?
 

If I send 20k clicks from the same source to two different accounts with the same sponsors resulting in 2 sales in account one and 10 sales in account 2

What are the odds of that happening?

I think its to few sales to set a trend, or call drama (not saying you are)

sign up to our program and send 200k surfers our way, and then we will see ;-)

If it happened to you, the odds are 100%.

You would need historical data.. then you could run a poisson distribution to find a probability.

The possibillity of getting 2 sales is 1 in 20.000.
The possibillity of getting 10 sales is 1 in 20.000 as well.
This makes this scenario has a chance of 1/20.000 times 1/20.000.

Yea, this isn't really a question that you can calculate odds on, since odds are based on an event that occurs with a fixed probability, which you don't have.

Yes, if the real question is how could one sponsor convert your traffic better than the next then you have to look at all factors.

Comparing how sponsors convert is like comparing apples and oranges.

You have to look at an infinite number of variables.

For example my program can sometimes take a bit longer to convert than some programs. Not because we're bad, it's just the opposite and it's a function of our registration and membership dynamics, however, that little patience pays off big dividends in a higher than average conversion rate.

So sorry for a tidbit of spam there, but there are reasons why on an initial burst of traffic that one program will convert better than the next.

its a loaded Question. You can Flip a Coin 49 Times and everytime come up heads. the odds of it coming up heads the 50th time.........





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