anybody trading energy stocks?
 

I found interesting blog on the matter

http://amateurenergyinvestor.blogspot.com/

very nice find...think i might try a few of these plays in my VSE account. :thumbsup

I'm not really "trading" energy stocks, but they are at least 60% of my portfolio over the last few months. Will check out the site.

Nice find. I am not real strong regarding the energy sector. Does it look like this guy/gal knows what they are talking about?

The site is run by Robin Nixon, one of the adult internet pioneers and I honestly can't answer your question, as ENERGY is not exactly his expertise.
:)

I thought I saw traffic from here in my log files :)

Hi, I'm the author of this blog and so far am making about 5% a month off these plays. That's about 60% a year. But I think it's possible to do better. Probably a lot better while there is an energy crisis. I know for sure I made a few bad moves that I won't again. Mainly by getting out too early before stocks had made their full rises.

Anyway, thanks for posting about my blog Serge. Although energy never used to be my field I have spent the best part of a year reading dozens of books and analyzing energy for many hours a day. In fact I am researching for a book I hope to have published in 2006 about the possibility of Peak Oil coming soon and simple ways to save or make your own energy and become more self-sufficient.

I welcome any comments anyone has on my predictions. Maybe you know more about certain stocks than I do - if so perhaps we can share knowledge to make even more money.

Pvx
Ahc
Br

AHC - This has shown considerable growth since 2003. I have it on my watch list as I hope it will fall to near its 50 day MA of about $11.70 (it's at about $12.20) - so that I can catch it on it's next upswing and get maximum returns. If it's going to do this I think it'll be in about 2 weeks - and I'll be ready.

BR - I have some of that. Gotta love it. Natural gas is going through the roof right now more than crude oil. This is one of the best stocks in the sector.

PVX - Another great stock. I don't have any yet but plan to. It's had a couple of huge corrections recently making it suitable for swing trading to maximise your profit. But even if you hold it long, it looks like a wonderful performer. I expect this one will be starting it's next upswing in about 2 weeks too.

It's too late to play oil.

No. The party is only just beginning. This year many scientists are predicting will be the year we will have exhausted 50% of all the oil reserves. The trouble is that the second half is the hardest half and will be slow and difficult to produce. Therefore demand will dramatically exceed supply as supply falls by 500,000 barrels per year to start with.

Since 1998 oil went from $7/barrel to $70/barrel - I think you will see this rise continue for another 7 years at least because there is nothing waiting in the wings to replace diminishing oil supplies. If the US govt had invested in renewables a couple of decades ago the transition would not be so dramatic. But seeing as renewables are only 1% of all energy in the US and seeing as nuclear power stations take up to 20 years to bring on line, and also seeing as natural gas is also running out, energy prices still have a long way to go before they top out.

In 1998 $70/barrel would have been unthinkable. Today $500/barrel is unthinkable - but that would be the equivalent percentage increase by 2012/13.

I always been into Tech stocks really.

I took a bullet of course a number of years ago but things are yielding very nicely.

Just cashed out 30K on San Disk.

Congrats on making that $30K!

Yes, tech makes me nervous. I was lucky enough that in 1999 I needed my invested money to start a new business so I sold all my tech stocks before the bubble burst. But seeing the falls that occurred made me look to see where else there was strength. I thought of biotech/pharms but I think they have great dangers too (look at Vioxx or GM crop warnings) - But then I came across PEAK OIL on Google. I strongly recommend investors do that Google search too. It yields all the info you could want about what may happen with energy stocks.

I am sure you and many others will continue to do very well with Tech - but I also feel sure Energy will seriously outperform all other sectors for the foreseeable future.

The system is already beginning to snap at 70 a barrel.

There most likely will be a thresh hold when renewable or alternative energy sources become more cost effective. At 70 dollars a barrel Alternative forms of energy are highly viable.


For example.

My father now engineer's install's Solar housing and retrofits houses with Solar Energy.
It's a booming business. His first year making over 1.2 million in California contracts.

I agree with you, the price of solar now looks very good. However there are 600 million automobiles in the world that all require gas to run. We simply cannot replace them all with electric powered vehicles in anything less than 20 years. That is a HUGE manufacturing project. And what are we doing now? We are only making hybrids that will see us for a few years until we have to go all the way electric.

Oil still has a long future ahead of it...

But I am not against solar. Already I have seen Solar panels go from $3.50 per watt to $4.50 on eBay. They will continue to rise until manufacturing steps up. There's a global shortage of solar panels right now. This is why I hold some strong renewable stocks too such as ESLR - Evergreen Solar.

I am also hedging my bets by holding ECA - Encana and others who own the rights to Canadian tar sand deposits. They may well become the new Saudis in a decade or so.

I really do agree though, energy has been and will be more so a top investment industry in the comming years.

California is one of the states that has grown to dislike the "Medling" the energy industry puts on it. ENRON for example and the rolling energy outages to gouge California consumers.

Frankly many Californians are looking to alternatives and its taking hold. Needless to say most of the nation's states are NOT taking the steps California has in Energy and energy conservation. A few years ago Sacramento made it mandatory for city/government buildings to become outfitted with Solar.

But I have no doubts that the "Oil Wars" and "Energy Wars" are just beginning.
The United States was the first to take aggresive moves to secure future oil.
AKA: Iraq.

Its fucked up but it is life.

I should not even be in porn...
I would do so much better in other things.
It is a good thing I love the porn industry, but I know for fact there is easier money to be made else where with far less effort...

Alien: Didn't you invent OIL?

ECA is much more of a natural gas play than a tar sands one. A couple of pure play tar sands stocks would be SU (Suncor on TSX), and even a great Royalty/Income Trust called COS (Canadian Tar Sands on TSX).

BTW, Henry Groppe, a very famous oil investor, has 60% of his portfolio in Canadian energy companies. I really recommend if interested, to check out more of the Canadian Income/Royalty energy Trusts that trade on TSX and end in ".un". There are about 50 oil&gas trusts and unlike stocks, they are structured to pay out the majority of their net revenues in the form of distributions to the unit holders and most pay approx. 12% plus the unit prices appreciate like stocks and they keep just enough back to fund replacement of reserves and buyouts... so they even act like growth stocks in some cases. Many are up thousands of percent over past few years.

"
and also seeing as natural gas is also running out, energy prices still have a long way to go before they top out.
"
There are many forms of Natural gas, and LP is one of the most abundant. They just found a pocket on the sea of cortez, which belongs to mexico. I am not exactly sure about the size, but I read that it can sustain Mexico, and the US for 200 years. Here in Mexico, if you have something that is gas, it is running on LP.

If you don't want to do all the research into Oil&Gas Income Trusts, there are some excellent "closed end" funds that hold lots of individual trusts and are actively managed like mutual funds and trade on the TSX that pay around 12% right now and also have appreciating unit prices just like stocks. An interesting wrinkle in the o&g trust market right now, is that because the trusts are flush with cash, and because they must pay out xx% to the unit holders, they will be forced to, over the next month or two, increase the distributions and probaqly pay out a special dividend to avoid going below the structured payout and get hit by the tax man. So buying a basket of the trusts in these closed end funds could be a great buy over the next few months. Three I hold are OGF.UN, SEF.UN, AEU.UN (I also hold a bunch of individual trusts).

You are correct, I probably should have mentioned Suncor seeing as I have some of that too! I wasn't aware of COS but will research it, thanks!

I certainly agree with you about Canada. they have some major resources.

I did a Google for "sea of cortez natural gas" but am not coming up with much. Do you have a URL about this?

To be honest with you I have to be extremely sceptical that any new field has been found that could supply more than a year or two at the very most of demand. Pretty much all the big ones were found by the 60s.

What do you think about when Steve Forbes said that in the short term that the price per barrel will drop dramaticaly?

I gather you mean this...

http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds...fx2195813.html

"Oil price bubble about to burst, says business guru Forbes

SYDNEY (AFX) - Oil prices are set to crash from this week's record highs as a speculative market bubble bursts with an impact that could make the hi-tech bust of 2000 'look like a picnic', business publisher Steve Forbes has predicted.

Forbes said the high oil prices currently dampening the US economy, which peaked at more than 70 usd a barrel yesterday as Hurricane Katrina headed for the US Gulf Coast, would fall to 30-35 usd a barrel within a year.

'I'll make a bold prediction... in 12 months, you're going to see oil down to 35-40 usd a barrel,' he said, according to Agence France-Presse."

He may be a billionaire but he is living in the world of inexhaustable supplies. Traditionally the stock markets always say that supply and demand rule everything. And true, they are almost always right. If the price of something gets too high people buy something else instead. Or they just stop buying it and the price drops.

But, in the case of oil there are 6 billion people in the world and they all need feeding. Only oil provides the fertilsers and pesticides and the energy for sowing and reaping, and processing and cooking and transporting. People will not go hungry just to bring the price of oil down. They will pay all they can afford. And by people I mean companies and countries too.

Because there has been no alternative to oil put in place (We should have started with renewables on a massive scale in the 70s), we are now slaves to oil.

Yes there will be corrections to the price of oil. But in tghe range of 5-15 years it will reach prices that will astound everyone - even Steve Forbes.

I also found this quote from him at...

http://www.forbes.com/finance/free_f.../1003/027.html :

"President Bush could help to once and for all pop the oil-price bubble by selling oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve on a more regular basis. Before the devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina, speculators knew that Uncle Sam was a buyer of last resort. There is no fundamental reason that petroleum prices should be almost three times the level they were three years ago. "

I believe this short term measure *would* substantially reduce gas prices at the pump. But it would deprive the US of essential strategic reserves. And once gone gas prices would rocket higher than ever.

In my opinion Forbes just hates the high price of oil and will talk against it any way he can - I think he's just blustering.

I heard he called for $35 barrel of oil. Sounds like he is shorting oil. While there might be a short-term pullback, I don't think you can go wrong owning oil&gas stocks. Most companies are presently valuated based on a $40 or so barrel of oil, so anything more and they are gushing profits, and you have a pretty solid floor unlike many other tech stocks...that can blow up overnight.

i'm not trading any stocks for the moment

An investor site that has busy message boards... covering most Canadian oil & gas stocks is www.stockhouse.ca

I think you are right about this. I believe it was CNBC where I saw him say in the short term it will drop, but in the long term it won't.

High oil prices mean more incentive to invest in alternative energy sources -- probably better now than later as supplies start to dry up.

Whew, got battered and bruised in the markets today. I Thought SYNM had fallen to it's bottom (after they announced they were capping a well they just drilled because it was dry) and so I ended up bought in just as other investors thought it had a lot more to fall. I sat with it thinking it was a temporary dip and only got the courage to bail out when I was $10K down. Ouch! Still Once I got out I started shorting it and made $1K back already. I'll probably get the rest back tomorrow as it slides more.

I also repeated another mistake I've made a few times and sold up some fast rising stocks too early. Thinking they had topped when they hadn't. I've got to keep learning to have more patience.

Still, even with these setbacks I'm up $8K from last Thursday... But I think I'll be more cautious tomorrow ;)

The entire gains of the S&P over the last year were finally wiped out today :(

Most shares came tumbling, as did oil, particularly when Crude oil droped $1 in a few minutes at about 10:30am ET. Oil started selling off pretty badly.

Other industries affected were Tech and Services but Financial seems to be holding it's own as I write.

Nevertheless. Even with the selloff, if you invested in the Energy sector on Jan 1st you'd still be up about 50% right now - if you were in a diverse basket of the S&P you'd be at less than 0%.

I see that crude is rallying slightly now. I expect a Bull rally in energy sometime in the next few days. You'll know when it's due because crude oil will rise for about 3 days in a row.

TSX energy stocks got hit hard too. Lots of red on my screen; ugh.

Yeah,

I'm $12K down on the day. I wonder if I have my stop losses set too low and should start raising them. Not that I want to with these stocks now - The likes of CHK, ECA, ESLR, HAL and so on - they took a big hit but are all valued way higher than their stock price. I'm gambling they'll reverse shortly. But I certainly wouldn't buy more right now on the off-chance of a reversal - the market may correct further.

By the way Hershie.

Do you hold any RD?

I have 100 of them and they are on hold pending a forced purchase. I'm trying to find out what I'm likely to get for them. Any ideas?

bump, what's up with your blog? been doing good with energy stocks!


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I have yet to focus on the large int'l integrateds. RD was rumoured to be making a bid to buy ECA last month. Have a look at SHC on the TSX. That is Shell Canada that is majority owned by RD, and has a huge oilsands operation on the go. I will be buying this for long term buy eventually.

Look at PCA for an integrated as it has a very low p/e I believe compared to RD...

I was quietly reading this thread waiting to Alien to tell Robin how he invented the pop up console...