This first amenment lawyer says producing porn outside CA is illegal
 

http://www.firstamendment.com/content_outside_ca.php3

is everyone taking a calculated risk?

Not this question again! The answer is Yes and No.

if it's yes and no, are all these people with sites just sitting ducks waiting to go or not to go to jail?

I highly recommend working with an attorney about your specific case. Producing content is perfectly fine in most states especially if you licensed and paying taxes.

CA is the only place where it's legally permissable to produce porn. I've known one or two crews who got busted and had their equipment impounded. Everyone who shoots professionally knows this. If you don't keep your location a secret from the cops then you risk getting busted.

Or go to them first and ask. The Whals (Tom & Suzy) did this with limited success in a St. Louis suburb. In the end they were about run out of town. I think they brought it on themselves though by pushing the limits.