GoFuckYourself.com - Adult Webmaster Forum - Betting on the superbowl? (trends)

if you haven't already placed your bets, might be wize to note these trends:

General Performance Trends ATS and Money Line Trends:
- Favorites in the Super Bowl are 26-12 SU and own an ATS mark of 19-16-3, 54.3%.
- Double digit favorites are 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS, 58.3%.
- The SU winner is 31-4-3 ATS in the 38 previous Super Bowls, so if you're taking the dog, you may as well take the money line.
- The NFC holds a 21-17 SU and 19-16-3 ATS edge all time, but is just 2-5-2 ATS in the last nine games.
- The team that is the higher playoff seed is just 1-6-2 ATS in the last nine Super Bowl games.
- The team with the better record going in to the game is 26-9 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-lost marks)

Halftime Trends:
- The team that wins the game SU owns a 27-10 ATS first half mark.
- The team that wins the game ATS owns a 30-5-3 ATS mark in the first half.
- The first half favorite is 20-18 ATS in the 38 previous Super Bowls.
- 53.2% of the total points are scored in the second half of the games.

Over/Under Trends:
- As noted earlier, there have been 46.1 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl. Analyzing since just '85, that total increases to 53.2 PPG! Furthermore, there hasn't been a Super Bowl game with less than 36 total points scored since 1975, when Pittsburgh beat Minnesota 16-6.
- The average total posted for the 20 Super Bowl Games since '85 is 46.3, representing a 4.8 point increase over non-Super Bowl games played within that same time frame.
- In nine domed Super Bowl games, the total points scored per game is 48.6.
- Nine of the last 13 games have gone OVER the total.
- The highest scoring quarter is the second quarter, 503 points (13.2 PPG). Super Bowl XXXVIII saw 24 points scored in the 2nd quarter's final four minutes.
- The lowest scoring total is the first quarter, 326 points (8.6 PPG). The first quarter of Super Bowl XXXVIII held true to this trend, going scoreless.

Teaser Trends:
- The underdog owns just a 22-15-1 ATS Six-Point Teaser mark in previous Super Bowls, a very low conversion percentage in terms of normal Teaser line success.
- The favorite is 27-11 ATS in Teaser plays.

Proposition Wager Analysis:
- First player to score a TD: A well-known favorite to proposition bettors. The last nine players to earn this title include Branch, Alstott, Law (a defensive TD), Stokley, Holt (a rookie at the time), Griffith, Freeman, Rison, and Novacek. You won't find any of these names on either the Super Bowl MVP list, or among the league's all time touchdown leaders, so make sure the odds are worth it.
- Team to score first and win/lose: In 27 of the 38 previous Super Bowls, the team that scores first has won the game. This should mandate at least 2.45-1 odds if you were to choose the opposite.
- Coin toss: The odds say take "Heads", or maybe "Tails". Either way, you have a 50-50 chance of winning. Despite the lack of control or predictability, this wager remains among the most popular.

Statistical Performance Trends:
- Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 31-7 SU & 28-7-3 ATS.
- Teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 33-5 SU & 29-6-3 ATS.
- In the 38 previous Super Bowl games, the team that has more turnovers has won just twice SU and four times ATS. In fact, the last time it happened, in SB XIV, Pittsburgh used a Super Bowl record 14.71 yards per pass attempt to offset a 3-1 TO disadvantage in defeating the Rams 31-19.
- Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories (RYds, PYA, Tos, TOP) are 32-1 SU & 29-3-1 ATS.
- Teams that win all four categories are 21-0 SU & 20-0-1 ATS.
- Teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 33-5 SU & 29-6-3 ATS.

hope this helped some of you.. good luck :)