Formula for Determining Active Users
 

There is a formula I use, that has worked very well in all my projects to predict where my active members will be:

:warning Its formula of 15 for a 1000.
That is if you have an average of 15 signups a day for a quality site (decent rebilling), you should expect about 1000 active members for your site.
:warning So to have 4000, you need to get yourself about 60 signups a day.
:warning FTVgirls.com, when it broke 10,000 members a year ago it was doing about 150 signups a day.

:warning Its a good way to predict where your active members will fluctuate at, or a way to create a goal eg. you want 20,000 active members? then you need 300 signups a day to reach it.

I bet though, that this formula would have been off quite a bit 4 years ago during the adult internet boom haha. But we are talking about today.

nice to see a sponsor acutally posting how many joins they do a day

well... not exactly, I posted what we did approx. a year ago. Lagwagon of FTV would not like me to pass out our current figures I think haha

This does hold very solid. But the one thing that is not in this formula is the retention %. If a site sucks and is lacking content there will surely be a lot of chargebacks and cancellations.

hehe proably double

I said "That is if you have an average of 15 signups a day for a quality site (decent rebilling), you should expect about 1000 active members for your site." Foo

I think there are many other factors like content quality, initial traffic quality etc...:2 cents:

Um.. isnt that the forumal for rebills?

I always thought that an active member was one who actually logged into the members area otherwise, you are just making money from them without them being active thus, have a higher percentage of getting a chargeback from an inactive member.

Regards,

Lee

I hate you and your 10,000 members. :glugglug :winkwink:

(actually this is for lagwagon)

It really depends on how long your retention is if its only one or 2 months then its going to take a lot more joins per day to keep up with the cancells

Good numbers and a heck of a program...

"In mathematics, there is truth" - good stuff, thanks :)

I think that's a pretty solid formula based on my experience with my own paysites.

I like that formula!!

:thumbsup