Bush win means C$ likely to remain high
 

OTTAWA, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Canada's dollar will stay around 80 U.S. cents with George W. Bush back in the White House, analysts said on Wednesday, because he is likely to favor a weaker greenback and a friendlier trade policy in his second term.

Democratic Sen. John Kerry conceded defeat in the U.S. presidential election in a telephone call to Bush on Wednesday and was expected to make a statement at 1 p.m. EST (1800 GMT)

Early uncertainty about the election results propelled the Canadian dollar to a 12-year high on Wednesday of C$1.2123 to the U.S. dollar, or 82.49 U.S. cents, its highest level since September 1992.

The greenback has sagged recently amid a widening U.S. trade deficit and concerns about economic recovery.

"(The Bush administration) left the market with the impression that they would not oppose any market-led weakness in the U.S. dollar," an analyst said. "There is speculation that the U.S. dollar policy may be watered down further."

Expectations of a continued laisser-faire U.S. foreign exchange policy means the Canadian dollar could ease in the coming months but then break through 83.3 U.S. cents, and shoot up near 84.75 U.S. cents in the next three to 12 months, Royal Bank of Canada currency strategist George Davis said.

Finance Minister Ralph Goodale said on Tuesday the rising currency challenges Canada's ability to enter new exports markets and expand the economy. But analysts said he and the Bank of Canada had better grow accustomed to these trading levels.

About 40 percent of Canada's C$1.05 trillion ($868 billion) economy depends on exports, 85 percent of which go to the U.S.

"I really don't have any reason to anticipate any change in the general approach in the United States. I haven't had a chance to speak yet with (U.S. Treasury Secretary John) Snow, but I expect to in the next short while," Goodale said.

Conservative finance critic Monte Solberg urged Canadian firms to use the currency's 12-year high to buy equipment to modernize plants.

Trade disputes, however, between the world's top two trade partners -- from softwood lumber to cattle to wheat -- may ease in a second Bush term, marked by Republican dominance of both houses of the U.S. Congress, two Canadian analysts argued.

"NAFTA renegotiation and serious protectionist measures are now unlikely," BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Sherry Cooper said.

But Jack Layton, leader of the left-leaning New Democrats, said Canadian should not expect friendly U.S. trade policies.

"We can assess George Bush on his record on softwood, beef and all of those issues, and I think the evidence contradicts those who would make that suggestion," Layton said.

Bill Robson, director of research at the C.D. Howe Institute, said the Canadian currency should also benefit from strong commodity prices.

"Bush is likely to be less protectionist than Kerry would have been, which will support world growth," he said.

"As long as world industrial production continues to move ahead, demand for Canadian exports, particularly commodities, should be strong."

($1=$1.21 Canadian)


:( :mad: :BangBang:

what is funny is both of us are upset that our country is doing well..lol

but yeah i would love to see 1.35 or higher again

I miss the 1.44 days! :waaaaahh :waaaaahh :waaaaahh :waaaaahh

We need top settle this once and for all.