So Kerry is ahead in the final Predictions......
 

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html

In past years how acurate have these predictions been in accordance to the final result?

C'mon Kerry ya flamin Herman Munster you can do it!

I hope he can hold on to the lead for just 1 more day! Bush was ahead in this poll for the last 4 days, so today was refreshing!

I think it will come down to people who do not usually vote getting out to vote Bush out.

But I could be wrong, fear is a big weapon.

Common People time to put these all over your Sites!!!!!

http://logo.cafepress.com/9/410338.241519.jpg

Hmmm Yep.

I follow that site closely as well - and hope Kerry wins...

But...Kerry is actually ahead in the latest polls, also on http://www.electoral-vote.com

Currently (oct31 polls) its
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 283 Bush 246
Predicted Final Results: Kerry 291 Bush 242

However, statistically its a tie. Because some of the states that are giving Kerry this lead are so close, that they might indeed have Bush in the lead, as they´re well within the margin of error (eg Florida - Kerry 50%, Bush 48%, Nader 1%). The trend has been though, that a thin lead for Bush has turned into a just as thin lead for Kerry in the latest weeks polls, and at least that´s something - but I wouldnt open the champagne yet :)

But let´s hope he keeps the lead when the real votes (those of them they can find that is) are counted - that´ll be something to celebrate.

So far the only predictor that has truly been accurate is that Redskins game win theory. If the Redskins win. then the incumbant wins the election. If they lose then the challenger wins.

http://www.snopes.com/sports/football/election.asp

Look at before ... looks like kerry LOST some states

I watched Karl Rove on TV this morning. Man that guy is one of the most arrogant smug people in the Republican Party and the reason so many people are turned off by them.

How about that Tucker Carlson and Bob Novak from Crossfire lol. Those guys make me want to just slap them both around with a large trout.:1orglaugh

But he's like James Carville.........his political strategy as far as voter manipulation is genius.......lets face it, with the Iraq debacle and the economy hurting, this shouldn't even be a close election and yet Bush is poised to win............but thank god so is Kerry, and the polls from the past 3-4 days have been encouraging in Kerry's favor.

that was awesome

All the pundits predicted that Osama's showing up would help Bush but todays Gallups poll says that it hurt him. It was very bad for his job approval numbers. It's hard to imagine anyone seeing Bin Laden on the tube, mocking the president and lecturing the American people, coming away with a positive reaction as to how Bush was doing his job. Plus, millions of people assumed he was probably dead or in a cave somewhere.
It just highlighted the fact that the guy who was responsible for killing thousands of Americans and costing a million people their jobs was still out there, thumbing his nose at Bush.

What you have to consider is the underdecided voters in polls. It has been shown that 2 to1 of undecided voters in polls with vote against the current president. This pushes Kerry into the lead.

:1orglaugh

I actually would vote for the real Herman Munster over George W. Bush -- or Ron Jeremy or Gary Coleman or Crackhead Bob.

I don't even bother with polls. Nothing like gettin gyour hopes up only to see someone else is cheating.

Yes, very true.

The undecided voters will make it swing for Kerry, if they end up splitting 2:1 in his favour, as they´ve admittedly done statistically in earlier elections (which is also one of the differing factors between the current polls and predicted final at electoral-vote).

However, there´s a couple of unknowns in the scheme. Usually a high turnout would primarily benefit the challenger and the democrats particularly. But this time, ultra-rightwing & religious movements have recruited heavily to make extra voters vote for Bush. Furthermore Nader might do better than his projected 1% in certain swing states - such as Florida.

On top Bush might have an advantage in Florida - democratic ballots have been lost by the thousands, polling places have been placed as strategically far from typical democratic areas, in registration known democratic voters has had their voting place deliberately placed in the other end of the state, the republican headquarters has released lists of thousands of known democrats to be challenged when trying to vote (meaning they have to proof theyre actually legitimate voters) - the latter was documented by the BBC. It sounds like methods you´d expect to see in Kazaksthan or Iran, but still - it might be such little factors that hands over those 27 key electoral votes to Bush, fair or not.

Update: On 31 October 2004, the Green Bay Packers defeated the Redskins in Washington, 28-14, which ? if the established pattern holds true ? predicts that Democratic challenger John Kerry will unseat incumbent President George W. Bush in the upcoming presidential election.

The bush family legacy will be one term presidents.

Electable on image, gets tossed out when people realize they don't like how they do the job.

Alex