So Bush is gonna win ?
 

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 247 Bush 285

he probably will...i think kerry would be a nice change...especially for our industry...but i have a feeling bush gonna take it...just being real...

Its 267 to 265 in favor of Kerry if you Give kerry Ohio. He is goign to win Ohio.

You need 269 to win so arizone being exactly 50-50 might decide the fate of the country.


If either gets Florida and Ohio you can go to bed, that would win it for sure.



EDIT you might actually need 270. Not exactly sure.

I think Bush will probably win. Bush seems to be slightly dominant right now, and in order to win Kerry really needs to show a bit more than he has so far... don't think that will happen though.

Bush by 10 points

Bush is not going to win.

Duh ... the machine is too oiled up

Sad that it is this close.

Polls of "likely voters" (people who voted in the last election) are worthless.

All the polls do not include newly registered young people (who are overwhelingly registering as 'democrat' or 'independent'), or anyone who primarily uses cell phones. (pollers aren't allowed to call cell phones)

there will be a HUGE surprise and BADNARICK wil win :winkwink:

It does not mean I don't want kerry to win thought . It just won't happen . Life sucks

electoral-vote is not a good source.
They have some real funky numbers that dont match anywhere else.

I mean come on, they have Colorado "leaning kerry" and hawaii "leaning bush" thats completely contradictory to everyone else.

Bottom line here is that there are more new registrations and young voters that will be coming out against Bush this year. The polls can't compensate for this. If the polls show that Bush and Kerry are tied before the election, Kerry will win. Even if Bush is up by 2 or 3 points in the "polls" before the election, Kerry will still win. Things are in favor of Kerry. With still almost 7% undecided, its a regular trend for the undecideds to break from the incumbant and go with the challenger.

Go Kerry!

this new world of information ROCKS ! :1orglaugh

If you want Kerry to win, vote for him.

The deciding factor in this election is going to be exactly what is happening in this thread - whether or not those who could vote for Kerry give up before election day, and possibly don't bother to vote.

BTW, I'm not saying that's what the starter of this thread, or others who posted are going to do - but it's a real danger.

The truth is, there are record numbers of new voter registrations. Now generally, that doesn't mean much - as most of those people, historically, don't bother to vote. However, as I've said in other threads, many are speculating that this election is so polarizing that those new voters will in fact vote this time around.

IF that were to happen, it is highly possible, IMO, that Kerry could win. BUT - if those votes never happen, because Kerry supporters concede the election before it even happens, and decide 'my vote isn't going to change the inevitable' - multiply that by millions, and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

In other words, Kerry supporters who don't vote will be Bush's biggest supporters.

The moral of the story is, if you want Kerry elected, vote for him. Just do it. If enough new voters do that this time around, his chances of winning are good. Don't buy the 'poll spin' - just vote.

I agree with you 100%

Thats exactly how it is. Polls dont mean shit! The 2000 election almost ALL polls had Bush up by 4 or 5 points on election day, Gore won 47% - 46% in the final national vote. This year with so many new voters, if they vote, Kerry will win!

Call and TAKE EVEYONE you know who will vote for Kerry, and go to the Polls together! If they arent in the same polling place as you, car pool and go with them to make sure they vote!

Pull everyone together and remind EVERYONE to vote on election day!

You're incorrect. Zogby at Zogby.com has pegged the last 3 elections almost to the tee.

He predicted and saw Gore's surge at the very end and predicted Gore would win the pop. vote by a point when all others had Bush by one or two.

Presently, he has Bush up by 3 points..........Kerry hasn't led in the zogby poll for a long time now.........and Zogby has the Bush-ites as being more juiced up to go out and vote.

It doesn't look good for us, realistically.

No. Kerry will win. He's got to.

He doesn't have to. There are enough religious idiots and evangelicals that are going out in droves to vote for Herr Bush.

Bush will win with around 290 electoral votes I am sad to say

:(

Polls have always leaned right, look at the last election.

Bush is not going to win.

Now that that's settled, does anyone know what happens if it's split 269/269? I was just looking at that chart, and if you move around a couple states it is possible. I'm too lazy to look it up, does anyone know what happens?

I appreciate what you're saying, but again, if the new voters are polarized, and upset their 'usual behaviour' - which is entirely possible - it would upset all the polls, Zogby included.

As I said in another thread - polls don't decide elections, votes do.

Vote for your candidate, and ignore the polls between now and election day. Or if you don't ignore them, vote regardless of what they say.

Don't concede the election before it happens. Chicken or the egg?

There are too many fucking rednecks in this country.

In case of a tie in the electorial college, the congress votes in the President.

like this loser:

http://www.scaryjohnkerry.com/convention.htm

I like how he uses Clinton's 1996 re-election stats as examples, and not the 2000 totals that clearly show how far Bush has fallen from those lofty goals.

Or the football at the end..........they have Bush pretending to be a quarterback and then Kerry in the next pic fumbling the ball.......

what an intellectually dishonest site.

Trust me, Kerry will win.

Stop being so negative.

Go vote. Guys, you have to vote.

I refuse to concede it but i have to go on logic..........last time in 2000, the polls swung wildly back and forth in the last few weeks, from Gore to Bush and back again. This time they are solidly Bush, even if by a little. It's going to be tough for Kerry to win, and I still say he needs 2 of the big 3, Florida, Penn. and Ohio.

I think he's got Penn. sewn up but the other two are leaning Bush.

I do understand what you're saying - and who knows re: the polls? We can agree to disagree. :)

I'm just beating the drum to ensure people don't look at the polls and decide not to vote because they think it's already over. I get that you're not conceding, so we see eye to eye on that point, which is the most important one, IMHO.

Help me Obi Wan Kenobi, you're our only hope.

just put all your beliefs and bias shit aside and be REALISTIC...you'll find the answer already...

It just pisses me off to the nth degree that ppl could be so stupid to even consider voting Bush back in. Its America's disgrace, and mark my words, if it happens, will spell trouble of epic proportions for our industry.

As much as i wish it wasn't true, i think the republicans are just better at politics and winning elections . .

bow down to the conservative white christian males. :(

you people crack me up...you hear these cats having a debate about porn? nope...it's not up there on the priority list...no matter who is in office aint a damn thing happening to this industry mark my words...

Karl Rove is a dirty campaign manager, Texas-style, but I wish he was running Kerry's campaign. We really needed a Carville-Begala type guy to run it; we didn't have it.

Perhaps you had your head up your ass when the Supreme Court narrowly struck down COPA 5-4!

COPA2 with some new Bush Justice's? You bet it'll pass. 2257 was merely the first salvo, bud. You'd better be prepared to grab your balls.

No problem about my vote. For as long as he serves the country right..

Bush speaks more direct and more simple. He's hard and unmoving on some issues like abortion. Put that altogether and many will see him as a 'stronger' leader with more conviction and clearer policies. Americans sleep better at night with a guy like him at the helm. They also sleep better when they believe the propaganda they've been spoon fed about the reasons for going to war. Even those that don't believe the propaganda may be looking at the overall picture of depleted oil, a resource we will need more of in the near future and our reserves are dwindling. We have to get it from somewhere.

Kerry speaks like a lawyer, many feel he's untrustworthy. We're not clear what he plans to do with the Iraq situation other than "try" to bring in more nations to the war effort. If that's the only major change, why not stick with Bush. After all, bringing in more countries isn't likely to solve anything over there. The apperance of waffling on issues has hurt Kerry too.

Bush has the edge IMO. And no, I don't support him.

Well like I said, Basically all the polls got it wrong last time. Plenty people agree that if the Dems are able to turn out their supporters, They will win. This isnt a normal election by any means this year. Zogby is a good pollster I will give you that. But no polling is perfect, its merely an art.

definitly :)

God will determine who wins this election on 11/2/04
More specifically..I mean "Mother Nature".

If you want Kerry to win, pray for GOOD weather nationally!
High voter turnout helps the Democrats. Plus the influx of newly registered voters has been heavily democratic.

NASTY weather (ironic ain't it?) would favor the Republicans as Repubs are more "zealot" like in their convictions and will tend to vote no matter how bad the weather is.

"Let the Sun shine..oh oh oh..Let the sun shine in.."

thats such a load of bullshit...who has statistics to prove something like that...

Very wishful thinking

Something interesting happened today. We have early voting here and I went to vote today and there was fucking line out the door. Last election there was not one person when I went. While waiting in line someone mentioned getting Bush out and just about everyone else agreed. The percentage of people voting in this election will be higher than any previous election. I predict Kerry by a landslide.

I would wish you were right.............but you're dreaming.

Make sure you all get out and vote and vote democrat.

you know what, he probably will win.
hell, he "won" the first time and he
didnt even get the majority of popular
votes!!!!!! makes me think how much
(or how less) my vote actually counts.

If Bush pulled it off the first time, he
can and probably will succeed in doing
it a second time.

im still gonna drag my ass outta bed
next tuesday and vote for Kerry though.
i can only vote what i think is the right choice
for president. (not that it even fuckin matters)

but at least the riots downtown will be
fun to participate in :1orglaugh :thumbsup

Vote Kerry and cross your fingers. Bush has fucked up just about everything and its still so close...what the hell is wrong with some Americans?

What state are you in?

I still say Florida is gonna screw him over

All depends on FL. I got screwed on voting, they conveniently didn't receive my voter registration form. :mad:

Bullshit eh? Ask ANY seasoned pol whose job is to get people out to the polls and they'll tell you the same thing!