Ok stupid math question
 

Lets say you have 4 numbers and you have to pick 1, your chance is 1 in 4 you pick that number. now lets say you can pick a number again, once again you have 1 / 4 chance you get the right number but now im wondering, those 2 chances you had, can you say you had 50% chance you picked that number or not? or is it still 2 x 1/4 chance? Or is that the same?

Yeah yeah, i failed miserably at math classes.

50% if numbers dont changes..
if the numbers changes its 25% ( 1/4 )

hope this helps :thumbsup

Thats what i thought yeah. Sometimes when you think too long about something you cannot think clear about it anymore.

2 x 1/4 = 2/4 = 1/2 = 50%

Right! :thumbsup

Yup, thats obvious.

Ok, thanks.

But lets say you have 4 straws, 3 short ones and 1 long one. Without looking you have to pick the longest straw. Thats 1/4 chance but the next time you still have a 1 in 4 chance. The 3rd time as well. Its not like that after 4 times you will pick the longest straw for sure.

heheh yeah i know this thing... some times it happend to me to...lol :)

Yep, and that's why the guys who play red or black in roulette, and double up every time they lose, will allways lose big in the end. Same odds every time, and 2% in favor of the table.

If this is somehow related to the casino then trust me, if roulette ever hits red 4 times, then bet that $100 on black. It ain't never going to hit red 5 times.

Try to proof that with some math

LOL
I think the official record still stands at 38 reds in a row, at Baden-baden I think it was

No no, its not related to anything. I was just wondering about it without a reason really.

Actually, I would think the first time you guess, you have a 1:4 chance of getting it right. That then leaves 3 numbers for the second guess which gives you 1:3 odds. So, your total odds should be 7:12, which is slightly more than 1:2.

But, I don't know.....