HOW OUTSOURCING WILL END (it wont be pretty)
 

Flash forward 5 years from now.

Companies have been outsourcing for years. Oracle, Microsoft, Adobe, etc.

Most American programers are out of work, as are many web designers, graphic artists, sys-admins, etc.

Companies who outsource brag of great profits and savings, while they still stick their customers with big bills for licences and support.

Then some fine day in 2006 or 2007, word starts getting around some new database software being given away for FREE by some Indian programers. They've formed a small company to compete with Oracle, only their software is super cheap (as in free) and the tech support is a fraction of the cost.

Companies cut their contracts with Oracle, Sybase, etc and start switching.

It seems that several programers who were doing outsourced programing for Oracle decided to walk out the door with a bunch of Oracle code they were working on and instead of giving to Larry Ellison, they built their own company.

The same goes for Adobe. A program just like photoshop but much cheaper appears on the web.

Indian software firms start dealing directly with American Companies, bypassing HP, IBM, Oracle, Adobe, etc.

Soon CEOs of major tech companies start begging Washington to "crack down" on this "illegal" software.

Washington takes their political donations and then just shrugs their shoulders and says "Sorry guys! These companies are in India and we can't file charges against Indian companies."

Soon, American tech companies start collapsing as their customers start switching to superior and cheaper Indian products....made by Indians and sold by Indians directly to the world.

FREE MARKETS at work.

Is this a plausble scenario?

In part plausible. Don't forget, though, that even in India creating such products requires a fairly big startup capital.

could happen :(

The us has the greatest military power the world has ever seen. Don't think you need to worry to much about free markets.

Outsourcing will force the US to innovate and create more high paying jobs in high paying sectors. Low paying work will be outsourced.

Its a never ending process. It's called economic evolution.

!

No.

How fast did the California anti-spam law block (aka Can-Spam) get put into effect?

When enough powerful US companies start to come together and start demanding something, Washington will take care of it.

They don't say "Sorry guys!... India wins!"

They'll create ways to make outsourcing cost roughly the same (or more) as hiring a US employee.

There are tolerance limits and outsourcing most probably will exceed them. We are talking for a short term period of 3-4 years here. Don't tell me we're about to experience a massive change in the US workfield with higher paying jobs, different positions etc within the next few years. That's unrealistic.

Another thing. Outsourcing is gonna explode in europe as well. Side effects there are gonna be worse.

When the big companies start complaining, it won't be about the cost of hiring employees, it'll be about entire businesses. Ofcourse, by that time it'll probably be too late to stop the process.

A lot of my old teachers claim India will be the next biggest country in every possible way, maybe this is how it will start? ;)

CHINA is my bet.

Yeah, I'd bet on China before India.

Outsourcing is probably a big OPPORTUNITY for most of you!

Move your offices overseas and take advantage of the low cost of labor yourself.

Why?

Exactly. But local guys are doing all the heavy lifting so you don't get jacked overseas. At $200 a month for a webmaster who's complaining?

Two words: "Product Cycle"

The code you rip off today, is already outdated by the time you form your company, get a marketing team in place, etc.

If they had a company formed in the US already, with a staff just waiting for stolen code, that is a conspiracy.

And if you have ever formed a company in India, you would know it takes about 5 years for it to actually be setup and running. The Indian goverment knows best for its people, so they delay productivity while millions live in the street.

Once again, fear and more fear being pumped into the minds of Americans by our award winning media.

-dd

India is more disorderly and disorganized and has almost no respect for copyrights or trademarks. Property laws are not very well enforced in India. Also, they have religious holdbacks that don't exist in China.

Don't get me wrong, I think India will make incredible advances in the next decade, but I think China will accomplish even more. It will be very interesting to watch both countries evolve.

you guys are lost in the sauce.... India is overflowing with smart, high tech programmers.... i've never even heard of a chinese programmer... Indians are geniuses with numbers and most of them speak English too....

I agree, India is overflowing with programmers, but we're talking about entire economies. Simply having good computer programmers doesn't ensure a country's economic success. Employing cheap programmers in India and building billion dollar corporations in India are two different things.

Four letters... DMCA.
If someone has your code in their software have their server taken down.
They would have to host somewhere shitty to keep their site online.

http://news.independent.co.uk/busine...p?story=483458

I bet too :)

Those that adapt to the changes in the world will survive; Those that don't adapt and just complain about the changes, probably won't.

:2 cents:

Outsourced programmers write their own code

thats about it, then we are all going to die

I wanna know what happens to US programmers if mexicans learn to code ? :o)

They go skiing in hell, 'cause it will have frozen over by the time that happens :1orglaugh

wise words

the idea that an outsourcing firm would steal IP and attempt to resell it to the same markets is pretty ridiculous. your federal government would step in rather quickly, especially given the political clout of the major software firms.

the software scenarios you discuss already exist in the open source world. (mysql, pgsql, the gimp, openoffice, etc) they don't steal code directly, but they are built to mimic commercial software packages. (ok, not so much the dbs).

they are minor threats to the big players. why, because the big players keep innovating to stay ahead of the free alternatives..

work smarter, not harder.

Actually the baby boomer generation is very near retirement age, there hasn't been another population explosion like that since to replace the retiring workforce. This is going to create a lack of bodies to place in existing positions. Most major companies are already being proactive preparing for this as we speak.

I don't think China has it.
India has it now, and *has* had it for 5 years.

When I worked as a tech support person for Gateway in '99, much of their work was getting outsourced to India.
A couple of years later after I moved out of Florida that support company shut down because all of their contracts - Gateway, Dell, Compaq, and a few online stock broker sites - had gone to firms in India.
In 2000 when I was a top "expert" at ExpertCity.com, we were getting flooded with Indian techs.
8 times out of 10 when I call any kind of support phone service now (not just tech-related), I get someone with an Indian accent. Used to be that I asked them where they were located out of curiosity, nowadays I just don't bother.

The debate wasn't about whether China or India will be the biggest in outsourcing, it was about which country will be "the next biggest country in every possible way"

We were talking about more than just outsourcing.

Also, outsourcing extends beyond programmers and call centers. It also includes outsourcing the manufacturing of products, and China OWNS manufacturing.

India has better software / IT guys and thats about it. China has more manufacturing etc. And they're sending their engineers all over the world to learn now.

There was an article in the paper last week showing a chineese ambasador asking if they can send their guys to an auto research plant over here.

How many products do you see every day that say made in China?

China has more than twice the economy of India.

India - purchasing power parity - $2.664 trillion (2002 est.)
China - purchasing power parity - $5.989 trillion (2002 est.)


China's growth rate has been 8% - 10%
India's about 6%

Adapt or die, that is the free market way. While it is true that we don't really have 'free' markets, there is a lot of leeway still to take processes and move them to places where you can get it done faster/better for less.

Just think of the opportunity for sales of most products as these countries gain consumer spending power. China already is pushing its citizens to use credit cards..

My money is on India. The chinese are way to arrogant, much like the Germans were in WWII. Having worked witha team of Chinese programmers I know that they let their arrogance get in the way of production. They never makes mistakes and they always do things the best way. Yeah right, they flubbed shit up as much as any other programmer but it took longer to correct because you had to spend twice as much time "convincing them" of their fuckup.

I had a chinese guy tell me that his buddy was extremely intelligent because well you know he's chinese, I told him you chinese and that was the dumbest fucken thing I've ever heard. Your race doesn't make you smart.

Anyhow, the chinese are very afraid to make a mistake and that helps them push forward in many ways but until they can get over their ego and earn respect individually I think that India is on the upswing.

The Indians have shown an affinity for technology and are already advancing at a rapid pace and are far easier to communicate and interract with on multiple levels.


Just my :2 cents:

There are 1.2 billion people in China, and you've met how many Chinese people?

Fallacy of Composition = Weak Argument

So I guess I should make my judgements based on the people I haven't met.

Oh, of course there are Chinese that are not arrogant, believing one sweeping statement would be as stupid as assuming another, that they are all smart.

Regardless I have respect for people of all races, but I'm putting my money on India moving forward faster.

In my opinion, America is the most arrogant country in the world, that doesn't stop it from being the wealthiest, in fact, it might even be one of the reasons it is. Arrogance might be annoying, but it doesn't necessarily hinder progress.

Also, I would bet on Indian people, not India as a country. Indian people are incredible workers, but try building a billion dollar business in that country. It's an entrepreneurs nightmare.

Agreed with that...:thumbsup

Anyo one up for any OUTSOUCRING Then????:1orglaugh :1orglaugh

I already am, with your competition though :winkwink:

India will surely come out on TOP!

It has companies like WIPRO and INFOSYS who have been ruling the software industry for sometime now!

I am sure India will take off.....

as far as the PREVENTING OF OUTSOURCING .....what abt the fact....that America has already signed the WORLD trade agreement and now cant back out of it!


:321GFY


Bush is a looser! :321GFY

Good thing I'm not American well at least in the eyes of my countrymen here in Canada.

Again from my own personal observations (and I apologize for not having met every single American) I have found Americans extraordinarily friendly and helpful. When I've travelled through their country they have been fantastic, every single time.

Now when the Americans have been in Canada I find them being attacked immediately by our people and I know it is the same in Europe, again from experience.

I'm a Canuck that likes the U.S. and its people.

Arrogance

The act or habit of arrogating, or making undue claims in an overbearing manner; that species of pride which consists in exorbitant claims of rank, dignity, estimation, or power, or which exalts the worth or importance of the person to an undue degree; proud contempt of others; lordliness; haughtiness; self-assumption; presumption.


Arrogance as defined above does not help progress and it will have a direct negative impact on any person, group or entity that embraces.

America became the power it is by standing up to Arrogance. I.E. Britain and by embracing other cultures and the best of their ideas.

The bottom line is that cost is of course the main thrust of where outsourcing will go, however there are other determining factors that will effect it as well.

hahahhahahhahah check out my thread re $200 a month "outsource a webmaster" service

I wouldn't credit America's power to be a result of it's war of independence from Britain. I'm confident that it would still be powerful even if it had lost.

Canada and Australia never fought a war of independence from Britain and they're both among the wealthiest countries in the world. How do you explain that?

America would still be powerful, no doubt, but not like it is today because the cash flow would have moved back into Britain. That is the problem with outsourcing, you will be moving your money even if it is less into another countries hands. As it moves towards and equlibrium it will be taken from the middle class and poor and spread out, not the rich.

As for Canada being wealthy, IMHO, Britain got knocked off her high horse and had to begin the process of treating the colonies better. Canada became more independant as a direct result of this. It most certainly wasn't from the Loyalists running into Upper Canada away from the War of Independance. Canada also had its chance to be much more influential and rich but instead chose to allow the English to bring back most of its profits back to England through the merchants who wanted nothing more than to exploit the new world.

I live in Canada and maybe you do to. Canada's economy is tied directly into America's. If the U.S. cuts us off, we're in the toilet instantly. Canada is day by day turning into a country to be used for cheap labour, there are posts on here all the time with respect to coming to Canada for cheap labour. I'm not surprised however we moved from being Englands bitch to being America's bitch.

Enter in Employment Agencies and you now bypass the Canadian Laws which protect the Worker. No paid holidays, wages at 9 to 12.50/hour and the employee can be removed no questions asked because they really don't work for the company they are doing services for. The employement agencies compete and lowball and it drives the wages down further. If your living in Toronto and making that kind of money you are a slave. You either don't have a life or you don't have anything at all. The sad thing is Toronto is where all the work is, I certainly hope this isn't the same kind of job creation that the States is now looking forward too, I can remember Cretien bragging about his job creation numbers. More like Slave Creation Numbers. Its a joke, eveyone moving here for a better life and then end up sinking themselves in debt with two cars, a 500k home and 2 to 3 jobs each so they can't enjoy their empty house.

The funny thing is that I can understand this and I am right of center in my politics.

Something similar to this happened right before the great depression.
Labor (American labor at this time) was dirt cheap. Huge corporations paid a pittance for factory workers to work ridiculously long hours in unsafe conditions.....and those people were happy to have the job because thier family got to live in a rat infested tenement housing project and share a bathroom with 10 other families rather than live on the street.

The real problems came when we had an industrial surplus....labor was cheap and factories were very productive....but, nobody could afford to buy the things the factory was producing because wages were so low.

The corporations had two choices, they could raise wages or lower their prices so that the "average american" could afford to buy their products and the cycle could continue.

Unfortunately they did neither, and a few years later the stock market crashed, banks failed, and 40% of the country was unemployed.

Hopefully somebody somewhere in power has the foresight to not let this happen again.
Dell might be able to get cheap tech support in India, but if nobody can afford to buy their computers then that won't matter much.

That's my :2 cents:

thats when USA goes in and bombs india, this is where ur wrong man!!!

Maybe for a little while longer it would have, but it wouldn't forever. Canada and Australia don't send money back to Britain. That all ended like 200 years ago, and they didn't have to fight a war to make it happen.

Well we continued to send money back into England for a much greater period of time then the States, that is for sure.

Regardless, the rich will only make more money off of the outsourcing which is great from a business perspective. As a country it is really going to hurt the U.S. and Canada's middle class. It already has.

how's outsourcing now?