Fibonacci and the stock market
 

So I'm familiar with the fibonacci method for betting but I've seen sites advertisiting tutorials on using it for your advantage in the stock market. I can't really understand how it would help though. Supposedly it helps you to predict when to buy and sell but I don't get it. Is it worth buying a book or is there a simple explination that's been put in a million different packages and sold for ridiculous prices?

Sure!

All you need to know is... 1 1 2 3 5 8 !

What it has to do is when the stock makes a run people will usually sell. It has to do with the retracement of the run usually 33%, 50%. Do a search on Elliott wave in google that should give you some answers

I can buy a lot of the technical analysis, but I can't see a rational reason why fibonacci numbers would work.

Thanks those sites make it more clear how it relates to changes in the market.

look to the pineapple for market guidance

And eat it afterwards to make your cum taste nice :)

Any of you have experience with this? Not necessarilly Elliot waves, but technical analysis in general. Everything sounds great on paper, but in practice 99% of the time is not that great anymore. Most techincal analysis strategies sites, are pretty much upsells to some couple thousand software or training seminar.

Well, if anyone has experience with this I would like to chat with them, icq 33375924.

Check out mutual funds based purely on technical market analysis. Check their 10, 20, 25 year performance, that should be the best indicator if there's something to it or not.

There are many technical methods used in the markets Elliot Gann and Fibonacci but, the bottom line is DISIPLINE. How much PAIN can you take if your position goes against you? Will you stay in the trade or bail. This is where alot of fuck ups occur. Even though your trading software or system would tell you to stay in the trade most traders bail because they can't handle the PAIN, and get out at a loss only to watch the trade turn around and make a profit. How do I know? I've traded millions of other people's money. There is not one trading method that will make you money in the markets. If it were so we all would be rich. There are traders and then there are traders that make money. :)

NOTE: Many sellers of trading systems make more money from selling the system ,than trading the system in the markets.

anyone seen Pi?

I was trading large amounts of my own money and used many different methods. I find the biggest obstacle is understanding that trading is gambling. Just because you are trading stocks does not mean it is any different than picking horses, or betting it all on black.

The rules I lived (still do) by:
1. If it is oil related, and the company is in Texas, and does not pay a dividend... don't touch it.

2. If a stock loses 20% quickly. Don't touch it either way. Catching a falling knife is just as dangerous as getting caught in a short squeeze. Wait atleast 7 to 10 trading days before buying beaten down shares.

3. Do not swap. Swapping is the sure way to lose more money. For those that do not know - going long from a short and going short from a long (all on the losing side).

4. If you are down 8%, sell (or cover). 80%+ of the time if you are down 8% it will go to 20% down and further.

5. If you are in a stock that doubles, wait for the triple. Time and time again I have sold on a double only to have it triple.

6. Have someone manage your investments. The day to day agony is not worth it, when you should be focused on the long term. I am not a fan of buy it and forget it, I am merely stating a managed portfolio saves a lot of agony.

Additionally, When you are deemed a pattern day trader, call your broker and refuse the additional margin... Unless you really understand what you are doing. I have been doing this for quite sometime and even now I look back on the days of squashing 50K and 100K blocks, it was insanity.

As the old saying goes, "Traders drive Chevrolets, Investors drive Cadillacs" - The saying is from a long time ago, so take that into account with the make of cars :)

The final thing to consider when trading, the dreaded 1099. I had many years of 1099's that were delivered in boxes from my brokers. Eventually it became difficult to find accountants. For each trade you have to figure the p/l. If you are trading hundreds of symbols a week, it adds up quickly.

That has to be some of the worst investment advice I have ever seen.... please tell me you are not serious.

Also, here is a good place to learn some basics of technical analysis.

http://stockcharts.com/education/

There are other methods that use gambling prediction algorithms and apply them to the stock market.

Supposedly some Indian kid straight out of Harvard figured a way to plug derivatives volatility price trends into a software program which then makes predictions. Supposedly, this guy is top derivatives dude at Merrill or one of the big boys. Do a lexis/Nexis search on his name.

that would be because it was trading advice and not investment advice.