A test for stupidity
Have any comments? Post them :) |
I loved that movie!
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It's not about the movie itself, not about sexual harassment, not about homos etc. It's about the episode shown on the video. Do you have any comments?
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You can't really fuck a car, can you? |
So no mathematical education in the USA? Are you vegetables?
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Is there a technical detail in the explanation he gives in the clip that is wrong or something? |
I watched a video of how the theory is proven but forget how they explained it. Just thinking about it most would figure 50/50 if there are two choices left and you pick one.
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The things are easy: 3 closed doors: 33.3(3)% chance for each 2 closed doors: 50% chance for each 1 closed door: 100% chance INITIALLY these two doors (actually ANY 2 of 3) together had a 66.6(6)% chance and any other one had 33.3(3)%, so summary it was 100% for 3. When one door was removed from the equation, the probability for the rest two doors has changed. Now it's 50% for each of them, so summary it's still 100%. You don't have to be Einstein to understand the basics of probability theory. In Soviet Union we learned it in the school at 13-14 year old (7th grade). The makers of that movie are idiots and they make more idiots among those who watch this shit. |
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem Quote:
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Wanna look smart? Learn to read the mathematical formulas model: Don't Switch! Why Mathematicians' Answer to the Monty Hall Problem is Wrong - IMA and let me repeat: go to the school already. Just a quote: Quote:
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you are such a fucking moron that just likes to argue with USA people.. It is why at first i didn't even want to reply. This video that you posted was about this theory. This is about a game show with 3 doors. The guy knows which one it's behind so when he picks he opens a door he knows it isn't and asks do you want to change.. He didn't have 50% odds cause the guy knew exactly where it was.. Just cause you don't understand this doesn't make you right dude. Quote:
haha I'm done.. like how you didn't answer if you went past 7th grade.. cause you act like a 6th grader yelling at people that don't agree with you. |
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There is a good explanation why you post bullshit and there is a mathematical proof of it. Learn to read math formulas and come back later. Once again the so-called "Monty Hall Problem" has nothing to do with mathematics and probability theory. It's about humans psychology. I can show you the programs that can "read your mind" and guess which side of a coin you have imagined in your head. And in most cases it will win you using the statistics of your previous decision (actually it uses a very simple formula). But you can easily level your chances to 50/50 if you won't imagine the coin, but just use a real one instead. The program will be totally confused. In case of "Monty Hall Problem" with two remaining doors the best option will be... to use a coin. Because there is a 50% chance that the prize is behind the 1st door (from left of from right - you decide) and 50% is that the prize is behind the 2nd door (from left or from right). If you're an European, you will count the doors from left to right, if you are an Arab or a Jew, you will count them from right to left. Changing your mind will not teleport the prize from left door to the right one or vice versa. The prize will still be there where it was before the empty 3rd door was opened. Because when the 3rd door was excluded from the equation, you have only two doors and there is no 66.6(6)% chance for one of them and 33.3(3)% for another. Both have absolutely the same chance and the sum of all chances can not be more than 100 (at least in our University). |
If the question is, that the car is behind which door (from the remaining two), then the probability is 50-50.
BUT, the question here is: Do you have more chance to win if you switch or if you stay with your first choice? In this case switching means 66.6 and staying 33.3. So you are both right at some point. That's why it is a paradox. I think this pic helps to understand. http://math.ucr.edu/~jdp/Monty_Hall/Monty_Hall_a.GIF |
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You know what? You will never give it to me, because there is no mathematical formula for that. Even a senile Monty Hall was unable to prove it with formulas, because of Alzheimer. Wanna prove that I'm wrong? Just show me the formulas! That's so easy, ah? It doesn't matter if you have changed your mind or not, both doors will sill have a 50% chance. And it doesn't matter that the 3rd door is opened and empty. The probability was simply redistributed. That's all that have changed, because one variable was taken out from the formula. With 3 rooms it was 100/3=33.3(3) (the formula is a+b+c=100), now it's 100/2=50 (the formula is a+b=100). Your decision does not affect the expected value. Mathematically. And this is the very basics of math. P.S. The picture you have posted above it stupid as fuck. The diamond is always in the 1st cup there. Now re-draw it like it's in the 2nd or 3rd cup. And add to it a variant where the opened empty cup was #1, #2 and #3 for each case. You will see that in all cases, the probability to find a diamond under one of 2 remaining cups is 50% and it does not matter if you have changed your mind or not. If you want, I can redraw this picture to "prove" that changing your mind loses 2 times of 3. And you will see that probability of success is not 2/3 but only 1/3 (in fact it's 50%, because (2/3+1/3)/2=0.5). That's in case if you are used to learn math by comics, not by formulas... |
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The question is the probability of winning if you switch or not, and the picture I sent above explains this clearly. It's not basic math :) |
So the key here is the extra help you get from the anchorman.
If you choose the car at the first place (1/3) and he opens a door with goat) then switching means loosing, staying means winning. But if you choose a goat (2/3) and he opens the other door with a goat then switching means winning and staying means loosing. So staying (1/3), switching (2/3). You have 66.6% chance to win if you switch and 33.3% to win if you stay. Again, extra info you get, changes the odds. |
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I'd still prefer to fuck one of the goats... :2 cents:
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I choose a goat initially, the guy helps me by removing one goat, I change, I win/I stay, I loose. Nothing to do with teleportation. |
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Now surprise (opening you a secret of the magic)! If fact you had a 50% chance from the beginning. Because only 2 doors count (the one with the prize and one w/o it) because the 3rd door does not participate in the game. One of two knowingly empty doors will be removed from the game by the host. It doesn't matter which exactly door did you choose, because the dude will remove the remained empty one anyways (there is always at least one room will be empty). So you start the game with 2 doors (not with 3) because the 3rd one was a fake butaphory. In fact you already have 50/50 chance and it doesn't matter will you change your mind or not. Quote:
A stupid show for silly people. As about Monty Hall, so he was just a senile Alzheimer old man. I don't understand the people who still believe in Voodoo magic and can be tricked by a hocus-pocus which was worked before A.D... P.S. As I said above, this "phenomena" has nothing to do with mathematics (everybody who has studied it in the school knows the chance is 50/50). It is a trick on human's psychology. A very simple trick which works on silly people only. Everybody who has a bit of logic will recognize the "catch" from the beginning. Some people think that women can't think logically. So yesterday I have shown that video to my wife and asked what she thinks. She answered right immediately: they are idiots, the chance is 50/50, because there is only 2 rooms - one with a prize and another one w/o it. And she was right. Doesn't matter how many empty rooms there were before if all of them were excluded from the equation by the game host, because he has left only two and only one of them has a prize. You can change your mind a million times, but the chance will be 50% anyways. |
So you still have the same opinion after the card explanation?
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Give me a card deck and I'll show you something you will never been able to explain. It will be your deck, you will control it (hold in your hands, shuffle it etc). You will imagine some card in your head and I'll show it to you. Magic? Mathematics? Card counting (ah, I won't even watch when you shuffle 'em)? Long sleeves? No, I will do it in a t-shirt or even w/o it (as you want). The answer is: manipulation. Not a manipulation with cards. A manipulation with your mind. You will think that you control everything, that you imagine the card etc, but in fact, you will do what I want. So all these Monty Hall tricks are too lame for me. When you see 3 doors, I see only two of them and I do count the expected value (which actually can be "calculated" even by a little kid). Maybe that's why I've decided to be a coder? ;) |
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Are the goats dressed all sexy like this one, or are they just buck ass naked? |
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Why you people are so easy to be tricked and manipulated? Do you believe in Santa, Jesus Christ or flat Earth maybe? Quote:
If you guys want, I can make an online simulator of this game and you'll see that all your "explanations" are just a bullshit for redneck housewives. I can post you a ton of videos that also "prove" that planet Earth is flat. I can even "prove" that Jesus Christ is really a son of the God and the God's reincarnation on Earth. I will use the Occam's razor to "prove" the God's existence (which actually it was created for) and course I can "prove" the existence of Santa Claus. |
this theory is flawed.
now there are 50/50 chance of winning. |
Only if you omit the previous data is it 50/50. The data is not irrelavant and the video CS posted gives a good explanation of why. It is important to remember that your initial odds of choosing the correct door was 1/3. So forget about revealing the one door and just consider the other two doors as one.
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yes its about Red or Black
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It gave me a headache but I got it in the end - CyberSEO you are wrong - I see what you are saying but it's just one of those strange things that maths throws up occasionally...
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And the picture I posted above works even if the diamond is under cup 2 or cup 3. https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ai-m...?cb=1505001223 |
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The key thing there is when exactly you've made a choice, did you tell about it to the game host who knows where the prize is and who wants to help you to reduce the probability from 1/3 to 1/2 and he will never remove the door with the prize. If all these things are correct, yes it will work, because the second iteration uses the merged variables (so variable "c" was not removed but it was added to "b"): 1st iteration: a+b+c=100 2nd iteration: a+d=100, where d=b&c, "a" and "d" have 50/50 chance, but with an amendment that "d" is "b" and "c" combined together. Yes, in this case it will work. I do agree. |
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Here is the map of the places the internet scammers are located in, according to the Microsoft intell info (Windows 10 sees everything you do at your computer): https://blogs.microsoft.com/uploads/...rt-scams-1.png And the article for you: 10 High-Risk Online Fraud Countries That You Should Monitor - The USA has more e-commerce fraud than Nigeria. Do you see Russia there? Personally I see the USA with a bronze medal... right after Latvia and Egypt. How come? https://blog.siftscience.com/wp-cont....png.27-PM.png The USA has more e-commerce fraud than Nigeria. Wow! A new level has been reached. Congrats on that! Do you guys learn the Internet fraud in the school? |
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