NFL question
 

If the game is in the last few seconds, and a team has just scored a TD, and have the option of the extra point to tie the game, or go for the 2 point conversion to win the game in normal time, what would the team most likely go for ??


"Why do you ask??" I hear you say.



I was playing Madden 13 last night and was faced with this exact scenario... :1orglaugh

Extra point to tie.

Though coaches have gone for 2 point conversions to win it. I remember Gruden did it against the Redskins one time, at the end of a game, years ago, and he won the cock sucker! Now what someone may or may not do on Madden is a totally different question.

Extra point is practically automatic, 2 point conversion is almost like scoring another TD, while from the 2 yard line, it's far from automatic. If you lose the game you will look like an idiot. It's enough to get a coach fired.

They will always go for the tie.. Unless it's the Pro Bowl!!
Gruden had balls to do what he did, balls that I fear no longer exist in the NFL

In a video game, hell yea you go for two points for the win!

That's the answer i was looking for...

This....is virtually identical to what I was going to write. :thumbsup

:anon





I went to overtime.
















And won thankfully. Superbowl here i come... :1orglaugh

tie the game, 2pt is too much to score in most of time...

Here's the play




If you look closely he didn't get in, refs blew it.

NFL - Go for the tie.
College - Go for the win.

So roughly what are the chances to successfully execute a conversion? 5%? 20%?

lol.......

Coaches have been fired for less.

Less than half the time according to this:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/12/almost-always-go-for-2-point.html?m=1

Eh, so that would be smart choice pretty often. When team is underdog its salvation to have "slightly less than 50%" chance to win the game when their chances in overtime would be smaller. An on top of that extra point is also not 100%.

Nowhere near as stupid as you implied, eg. "coach would look like an idiot".

If you don't get in on the 2 point conversion, and lose the game, when you could have easily tied it, everyone will be asking the "what ifs" that could have been in overtime, and yes you will look pretty stupid.

Most teams are at 100% when it comes to PAT's: LINK

99% PAT and getting a chance of winning it in overtime... or 48% of winning the game on the spot with a 2 point conversion? There's a reason why it's not a gamble coaches take.

I may have exaggerated a bit :)

However if a coach is already on the hotseat, it might just get him fired. Or put an iffy coach on the hotseat. A smart coach wouldn't do it. Gruden is a tool.

Go for 2 if it means winning your division if you've already clinched a playoff birth
Ds

Sorry, but I am missing some very basic logic here...
If a team is weaker/underdog doesn't it mean team has less than 48% to win in OT?

Its pretty simple - if you are favorite it is smart to go to overtime, if you are underdog it is smart to take 48%. And stupid to go to overtime.

If you make it to the end of a game with a chance to win or tie, then odds are not the same as before the game started. An argument can be made that if the other team is scoring on every drive and your defense is getting shredded like paper then maybe you should try to win it there and then. Or maybe one of your key players got hurt, like your kicker for example. Or maybe your special teams is just plain garbage. Otherwise I go for the PAT.

Even if odds would be 50/50 that 48% would not be THAT stupid. And we know that most of the times odds in overtime are still not 50/50. Some team is still favorite for one reason or another.

I guess it comes down to not risking the whole game on one play. Instead play for OT. You might win the toss and be able to win it without the other team even touching the balle, if you score another TD

The only logic you're missing here is that once again you're arguing about some shit you're clueless about. Stick with talking about ballerinas or whatever the national pastime is in your country.

We are talking about percentages, not about rules. And as you saw we had pretty decent conversation. So again, you failed to troll me :thumbsup

Coaches don't make these kind of decisions based on percentage. If they did they would go for it on 4th down most of the time.

I meant that when you go in overtime you feel if you are 50/50, you feel is you are favorite and you feel if you are underdog. So when you feel you don't have 50/50 you of course go for that 48% which is damn good.
When you feel your opponent has an edge you take that 48% which is smarter.

Generally football is a very conservative sport.