The reason for war with Iraq is: The Euro
 

Those with an I.Q. above average (so maybe four or five of you) should read this lengthy essay here:

http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html

Time will be the test of his theories... I bet we find out sooner rather then later.

Think gas prices will drop when it's over? $1.80 a gallon today... OUCH!

I find myself agreeing with JS more every day. :thumbsup

Interesting point of vue... and makes sense.

Even here, alot of webmasters were considering switching to Euros...

And we are not talking the same volume as OIL...

$1.80???!!!!

In my world it's $2 to $2.25. It must be because we live so close to the refinery.

That is a very interesting essay. It has a lot to consdier in it and may even be valid. Let's assume it is.

If the US dollar falls 50% in value and the US standard of living falls a few things will occur.

1. US industry will jump start and jobs moved off shore will return. US workers are still among the best educated and most productibve in the world.

2. US exports hurt by a strong dollar will recover because they will become a bargin in euros and other currencies.

3. US imports will drop and people will purchase made in USA creating more jobs.

4. The push to move off the petro standard for energy will accellerate.

5. It would be painful for a while but the US would end up better for it in the long term.

wow... also.. holy fuck.. if things don't go right the exchange rate could wipe out non-US webmaster's profits..

forgive my shallow analysis :)

Title:

"A Macroeconomic and Geostrategic Analysis of the Unspoken Truth"

I have written essays like this. You use really big words because you are trying to bumfuzzle and bedazzle your audience while having no grasp of the subject matter.

Very interesting. Thanks!

what a great analysis... of the title..
yes we have all written essays using bigwords.. how about to read it and then say he has no grasp of the subject matter.. just because there are big words it doesn't mean they are purely obfuscatory. It's actually an easy read.

Why not read the essay and then comment. It's quite insightful.

I remember reading something about the Oil Currency reasons for the Gulf War in 90 too. I can't find it now though.. but this one is at least interesting as well.

Economic Motives for the War
http://www.incite-national.org/issues/econ.html

I have no idea whether that essay is a true reflection the US, EURO position. But I'll say one thing, that essay gives the most plausible and likely reason to explain how countries have lined up on either side as they have. Nothing so far has explained it.

You say OUCH, I Europe we pay $ 1.20 PER LITER, I say FUCK...

Would someone mind explaining this one ?

If the US dollar continues to shit itself, which is likely, we are going to be getting less local currency from our US dollar cheques.

Which means... we are gonna hurt. Bad.

I thought it would be as simple as that. This could get nasty :Oh crap

nice post. this essay was def. an eye opener

Joe,

Interesting reading, thanks. I am going to look into some of the statements presented here through other sources because I am not familiar with some of what was written. Good food for thought however.

-LD


I will say though these are some paranoid folks:

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ImSuprised anyone would take the rantings of a extremely far left conspiracy theorist seriously.

CURRENCIES

NEW YORK The dollar fell sharply Thursday as investors said a United Nations report on Iraq due Friday might bring the U.S. closer to launching an attack.

In late trading, the euro rose to $1.0844 from $1.0717 late Wednesday, while the dollar fell to ¥120.540 from ¥121.285. The dollar fell to 1.3540 Swiss francs from 1.3702 francs, and the pound rose to $1.6212 from $1.6163.

Traders have driven the dollar down about 9 percent against the euro since UN weapons inspections began in Iraq in November. Speculation that the chief UN inspector, Hans Blix, will report that Iraq has not accounted for all its weapons overshadowed upbeat retail sales and weekly jobless data.

"The economic picture has been swamped" by speculation about Blix's report, said Karl Halligan, chief currency trader at the New York branch of France's CIC Bank.

The dollar extended losses when part of Gatwick Airport near London was evacuated after a security alert.

"The only thing that matters to the dollar is Iraq and terrorism" said Ihab Salib, a fund manager at Federated Investors Inc. He said he was holding fewer dollars than recommended by the benchmark indexes he follows.

"We don't like the dollar," said Andrew Snowball, senior economist at Julius Baer International Ltd. in London. "What concerns us is who is going to be in this war and how quick will it be?" (Bloomberg)

http://www.iht.com/articles/86652.htm

However, the Iraqi WMD threat to the stability of the region is clear, the question is why only Iraq, and not also N. Korea, Iran, etc.? There are some cumulated reasons why now Iraq, and not only because of the Euro: WMD, Iraqi links with the terrorists who hit the US (and here none of us have the whole picture, as Bush has, some secret details that cannot be revealed now, will only be public after 50 years or so - just think about the breaking of the German, Japanese and Russian codes in the 1940s, the secret US missiles withdrawal deal from Turkey during the Cuban crisis), unfinished business from the Gulf War (of Bush Sr.), oil reserves, Euro, vicinity of Israel (i.e. WMD again), testing new weapons ...
The fact is France and Germany know very well Saddam is a brutal dictator, torturing and killing his opponents, but Iraq is not just Afghanistan, it has huge oil reserves, and therefore there are powerful economic interests there. If a pro-American governement is put there, the US will get the lion's share. A lot of today's problems would be solved for the US economy with this war.
French and German leaderships depend more on their voters and corporations, and normally have to protect their interests, which in this case do not match the American ones. Hence the political clash and the trend to lift Europe to a stronger position in the relationship with the US.
So, it's understandable why all this. It will be solved sooner or later in the favor of the US, since Europe lacks the military power of the US.
And sooner or later, the US will deal with N. Korea and Iran in the same way - since N. Korea now it's not just threatening the S. Korean and Japanese territories but the US soil itself, and diplomacy only, if not solved by WMD halt vs. more supplies, will mean more threat is going to be built there, which could not be tolerated, even at the expense of Seoul and Japan.

Ok, after reading that link twice I am not convinced of this theory as a leading cause to go to war. There are errors in some of the information reported which to me sets off alarms immediately. Also quoting "anonymous friend" right away diminishes credibility in my mind. The author should put up or shut up. Name names or don't quote. No authentic news source would get away with that.

The author quoting "Joseph Goebbels", an evil SOB demonstrates his personal feelings towards any kind of structured government by insinuating that Nazi Germany and The Bush administration are even remotely similar. It's really kind of a pathetic insinuation actually since we have many media outlets available to us. Nazi Germany had one, THE STATE Media.

The article is written from an extremely leftist point of view. I will say though that it has peaked my interests in learning more about the macro aspects of OPEC and the oil trades. I will begin this self education tomorrow at B & N.

damn good fucking read

A very good analysis and worth reading, particularly as it articulates the fact that a unified Europe trading bloc will challenge the utterly dominant role the dollar has enjoyed for decades as THE international reserve currency. But it is not, IMO, the dominant reason for this conflict nor does it explain Bush's choice of war for dealing with it.

There are multiple factors that have pushed U.S. foreign policy into its present state. If currency macroeconomics were the dominant driver, there are other strategies that would protect the dollar and devalue the euro without risking war, instability and a recession caused by increased energy/fuel prices.

On the economic front, what we Americans should really be asking is how is the U.S. going to pay for this war (and the ones likely to soon follow) and all of the bonds we are hyper-selling to the rest of the world? There's only taxes or inflation. That's one of the reasons spot gold has been charging upwards for the last year--anticipation of inflation.

Some other points of note:

The US dollar is weakening, and typically that's good for us - we import less and export more.

However, keep in mind that foreigners buy most of our Treasury debt, and finance that enormous trade deficit of ours.

With the dollar weakening, they're losing money on the exchange rate and they're going to stop investing in the US. When that happens, the US is forced to raise interest rates, and BOOM, there goes the housing market - the cornerstone of our economy right now.

I don't think people realize how precarious things are right now. :-/

Great read. Now I need a smoke break.

Synopsis:

It would appear that any attempt by OPEC member states in the Middle East or Latin America to transition to the euro as their oil transaction currency standard shall be met with either overt U.S. military actions or covert U.S. intelligence agency interventions. Under the guise of the perpetual `war on terror' the Bush administration is manipulating the American people about the unspoken but very real macroeconomic reasons for this upcoming war with Iraq. This war in Iraq will not be based on any threat from Saddam's old WMD program, or from terrorism. This war will be over the global currency of oil.

Sadly, the U.S. has become largely ignorant and complacent. Too many of us are willing to be ruled by fear and lies, rather than by persuasion and truth. Will we allow our government to initiate the dangerous `pre-emptive doctrine' by waging an unpopular war in Iraq, while we refuse to acknowledge that Saddam does not pose an imminent threat to the United States? Furthermore, we seem unable to address the structural weakness of our economy due to massive debt manipulation, unaffordable 2001 tax cuts, record levels of trade deficits, corporate accounting abuses, unsustainable credit expansion, near zero personal savings, record personal indebtedness, and our dependence and over consumption of Middle Eastern oil.

Regardless of whatever Dr. Blix finds or doesn't find in Iraq regarding WMD, it appears that President Bush is determined to pursue his `pre-emptive' imperialist war to secure a large portion of the earth's remaining hydrocarbons, and then use Iraq's underutilized oil to destroy the OPEC cartel. Will this gamble work? That remains to be seen. However, it is quite plausible that our nation may suffer not only from increased Al-Qaeda sponsored terrorism, but economic retribution from the international community or OPEC members as well. Will we sit idle and watch CNN, as our government becomes an international pariah by discarding international law as it wages a unilateral war in Iraq? How can we effectively thwart the threat of international Al Qaeda terrorism if we alienate so many of our allies?

We must ask ourselves this fundamental question: Is it morally defensible to deploy our brave but naïve young soldiers around the globe to enforce U.S. dollar hegemony for global oil transactions via the barrels of their guns? Will we allow imperialist conquest of the Middle East to feed our excessive oil consumption, while ignoring the duplicitous overthrowing of a democratically elected government in Latin America? Is it acceptable for a U.S. President to threaten military force upon OPEC nation state(s) because of their sovereign choice of currency regarding their oil exports? Paradoxically, these belligerent policies may bring about the dire outcome this administration hopes to prevent -- an OPEC currency switch to euros. Thus, remaining silent is not only misguided, but false patriotism. We must not stand silent and watch our country become a `rogue' superpower, relying on brute force, thereby forcing the developed nations or OPEC to abandon the dollar standard -- and with the mere stroke of a pen -- slay the U.S. Empire.

This need not be our fate. When will we demand that our government begin the long and difficult journey towards energy conservation, the development of renewable energy sources, and sustained balanced budgets to allow real deficit reduction? When will we repeal the unaffordable 2001 tax cuts to create a balanced budget, enforce corporate accounting laws, and substantially reinvest in our manufacturing and export sectors to gradually but earnestly move our economy from a trade account deficit position back into a trade account surplus position? Undoubtedly, we must make these and many more structural changes to our economy if we are to restore and maintain our international "safe harbor investment status.

Equally important, we must bear in mind the wisdom of founding fathers like Thomas Jefferson's who insisted that a free press is vital, as it is our best, and often the only mechanism to protect democracy. The American people are not aware of the issues discussed in this essay because the U.S. mass media has been reduced to a handful of consumption/entertainment and profit-oriented conglomerates that filter the flow of information within the U.S. Sadly, part of today's dilemma lays within these U.S. media conglomerates that have failed in their responsibilities to inform the People. Our Congress must enact reforms, as this is a legitimate threat to our democracy. The Internet should not be our only source of real, unfiltered news.

Furthermore, it would seem imperative that our government begins discussions with the E.U. to reform the global monetary system. We must adopt our economy to accommodate the inevitable competition from the euro as an alternative international reserve currency. I concur with those enlightened economists who recommend that we create a dollar-euro exchange band with reserve status parity, and a dual-OPEC oil transaction standard. However, the Bush administration's entrenched political ideology appears quite incompatible with these necessary economic reforms. Ultimately We must demand a new administration. We need responsible leaders who are willing to return to balanced budgets, conservative fiscal policies, and to our traditions of engaging in multilateral foreign policies while seeking broad international cooperation.

It has been said that all wars are fought over resources or ideology/religion. It appears that the Bush administration may soon add `oil currency war' as a third paradigm. I fear that the world community will not tolerate a U.S. Empire that uses its military power to conquer sovereign nations who decide to sell their oil products in euros instead of dollars. Likewise, if President Bush pursues an essentially unilateral war against Iraq, I doubt the historians will be kind to him or his administration. Their agenda is clear to the world community, but when will U.S. patriots become cognizant of their modus operandi?

"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.

"The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State."

-- Joseph Goebbels, German Minister of Propaganda, 1933-1945

I was trying to tell a friend that the other day, that was complaining about an 10-cent increase in gas.

Gas, in America has always been one of the best bargans going.

When compared to a gallon of shampoo ($20.00) - Mouthwash. ($12.00) - Hell, people pay $1.00 for a stupid pint of filtered water here and don't complain!!

i knwo this post is probably dead but fuck it. i've been thinking about what i read and i'm actually starting to support bush now that i see why he is pushing this issue so hard. what i gathered from that essay is that the world is 1 huge business, all countries diff. corporations fighting for #1. if we cant acquire iraq and take those oil fields out of the equation we could be fucked for many generations to come. or maybe i jsut read too much into what was typed but thats what i at least got out of what was posted.