Ron Paul and Newt Gringrich Tied For Lead In Iowa
 

There has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%.

CaucusGraph
Gingrich has dropped 5 points in the last week and he's also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he's now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%.

Paul meanwhile has seen a big increase in his popularity from +14 (52/38) to +30 (61/31). There are a lot of parallels between Paul's strength in Iowa and Barack Obama's in 2008- he's doing well with new voters, young voters, and non-Republican voters:

-59% of likely voters participated in the 2008 Republican caucus and they support Gingrich 26-18. But among the 41% of likely voters who are 'new' for 2012 Paul leads Gingrich 25-17 with Romney at 16%. Paul is doing a good job of bringing out folks who haven't done this before.

-He's also very strong with young voters. Among likely caucus goers under 45 Paul is up 30-16 on Gingrich. With those over 45, Gingrich leads him 26-15 with Romney at 17%.

-Among Republicans Gingrich leads Paul 25-17. But with voters who identify as Democrats or independents, 21% of the electorate in a year with no action on the Democratic side, Paul leads Gingrich 34-14 with Romney at 17%.

Young voters, independents, and folks who haven't voted in caucuses before is an unusual coalition for a Republican candidate...the big question is whether these folks will really come out and vote...if they do, we could be in for a big upset.

Paul's supporters are considerably more committed to him than Gingrich's are. 77% of current Paul voters say they're definitely going to vote for him, compared to only 54% for Gingrich. Romney has much more solid support than Gingrich as well, 67% of his voters saying they're with him for the long haul. Among only voters who say their mind's totally made up, 29% support Paul to 21% for Gingrich, 18% for Romney, and 11% for Bachmann.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m...-gingrich.html

my condolences

If Paul manages to pull off a win in Iowa it could cause a major shake-up in the race. I still think it will be either Romney or Newt that wins in the end, but if Paul wins that first state they will be shitting their pants.

Newt Gringrich? First time I've heard that name.

I'm the hottest cuban in porn.... crazy cool and tons of fun. queen Castro is what i like to be called... lol

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:winkwink:

Care to explain what you mean by "shake-up" and who "they" are?

It will shake things up because the expectation is that Romney or Newt will win that state. Paul can't get any kind of press coverage. If he wins that state he will suddenly be getting a ton of it. In the past two elections we saw Kerry, then McCain both come out of seemingly nowhere to win Iowa and it catapulted them into the lead, got them a ton of free press and helped them raise money. Both ended up winning the nomination.

Paul is off the radar to everyone but his supporters. If he wins Iowa it will be a shock, but also a statement about how some of the voters are feeling right now. Like I said, even if he does get that win I don't think he will win the nomination because he is too honest and has positions that are too far outside the mainstream, but he could cause a shake-up and make it more difficult for the eventual winner.

By "they" I mean mostly Newt, Romney and the RNC.

Ron Paul winning that, who else!

Sounds like a reasonable critique to me.

Ron Paul is 76 yrs old, I had no idea. Guy looks pretty good for that age.

Ron Paul 2012!

I'm all for free speech but then again, you are not even American so no offense but who gives a shit what you think?

If Romney or Gingrich win, it will signal their inevitability towards winning the nomination...

If Ron Paul wins it will be written off as a inconsequential.

The media knows he very likely will win or at the very least place a strong second so they are already "talking down" the importance of him winning right on cue. TPTB know he is Obama's only real threat come November. The flip flopper and serial cheater offer no resistance to Obama's second term. GOP'ers better figure that out and fast before they get saddled with John McDole 2.0

Go Ron Paul!!!

Meanwhile Gingrich will continually be pimp slapped by his "invented people" etc.
http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/b82...E-large640.jpg

Yea, because American politics have never affected anyone outside the U.S. :Oh crap

And here in the Western EU, the media mentions Gringrich, Bachman, Romney...

But not a single word about Paul.

I'd love Paul to win the nomination but there are forces we don't see that won't let that happen.

I agree with your point which is why I almost did not post that, however Caligari or whatever his name is routinely talks out of his ass with regard to American politics, something he obviously is very ignorant about. If you are going to interject yourself into a discussion you should at least have a clue what the fuck you are talking about and he clearly doesn't.

actually huckabee win iowa last time around

hey dicknose i did not make that comment, get your posters straight:thumbsup

.

Ron Paul has a huge following, and does well in a lot of polls etc. What he has going against him is the shit ass media in this country. Paul would push for the legalization of Marijuana, which would turn this country around and I'm not kidding. Reasons include taxes on it, plus a reduction in the law enforcement time spent on fighting this safe drug, the border issues, and so much more.

I disagree, after we failed to meet our deadlines this summer and Congress couldn't negotiate, there are millions of Americans ready to put the people more towards the middle in office. The far right and far left Congress members will take a huge hit in 2012 in my opinion. Ron Paul isn't supported by the far right, which is why I think he will do well with the general public. He might even get some of the left swaying voters over to his side.

If Paul fails to get the GOP nomination, he could almost run independent if he had the cash.

Ron Paul is like the Yankees. The thing itself isn't so bad, but its fans annoy the shit out of me.

Oh crap, you are correct. McCain came in second which was a huge shock because he had no money and had been written off as being a guy who had no chance.

I would love to see how the media would react if he wins. Right now, like you say, they have written him off. After the last debate he was invited on some shows and all they did was ask him about Newt and Romney as if he were already out of the race.

I said whatever his name was. He knows who I meant. Yeah MaDalton is the douchebag I meant not you sorry. Touchy LOL

the problem is i think they will just kill Ron Paul off if he gets into power and actually tries to do what he says

Paul isn't getting any positive press anytime soon. His beleifs aren't in favor of the establishement. He made an ennemy of the military industrial complex and wall street.

LOL. his policies are right up wall streets alley dude.

I did not specifically mean the general public would write it off, I was referring to the media.

As for his strength with Independents and disaffected Democrats, I am certain he would do very well as an Independent candidate which is one reason the media keeps asking him about it trying to shame him into ruling it out because he is the one person Obama's handlers are truly afraid of. The Libertarian Party has already publicly stated that if he does not get the GOP nod that they would want him for their ticket and they are on the ballot in virtually all 50 states already. This scares the piss out of Obama since while yes he would take some votes away from conservatives, I think he would actually take more away from the Democrats.

Paul winning in Iowa would be a huge gift to Romney.

um, Huckabee won iowa in 08.

Thats probably owing to the fact the media is scared shitless of him and goes to painstaking lengths, sometimes ridiculous lengths to omit him, shit like when he is polling second or comes in second in a straw poll the media will mention the winner and then skip right to who came in 3rd, 4th, 5th etc and then maybe a small blurb in the last paragraph about him or wont even mention him at all so RP supporters probably reflexively can be in your face about him to try and counter that.

Then again maybe they are all just assholes LOL- either way you are voting for him, not his supporters.

Thats a psy-op tactic they use to subliminally imply to the viewer that he has no chance so you should not waste your time voting for him, similarly to how they always ask him if he is going to run 3rd party but never ask anyone else. Sometimes they are pretty transparent about it, other times more subtle but it's a way to manipulate the viewer into making that association.

Shhhh. I'll let you in on a lil secret. No one is scared of Ron Paul. He's the repub equiv of Kucinich.

Yes, its all a huge conspiracy by the illuminati and thousands of members of the media.

I am sure thats why he would pick Jesse Ventura or his son as his running mate IMO

Ironically, he gets more donations from military members than all the other GOP candidates COMBINED, and more even than Obama. Shows that people "in the shit" know the score.

Thats quite possibly the most idiotic thing I have ever heard you say, and considering the source, thats saying a lot.

Maybe I should not make fun of you though. According to your own admitted IQ test, you are functionally retarded... and my mama taught me to not make fun of mentally challenged people. https://gfy.com/showthread.php?t=1050132

:1orglaugh

Mets fans are even worse since they'll probably never win anything.

Why would he pick his son? He doesn't seem the type that would like a political dynasty.

LOL- only mindless drones who cant think for themselves who watch MSNBCNN actually believe that shit. The very fact you really believe that shows just how myopic you are-

If he doesn't he better stay away from grassy knolls...

Ron paul is bruce wayne

You need to look at some better polls.

Who cares about Iowa? Apparently a lot of people all of a sudden.

Great point.

It's always comical to see someone believe in a candidate and then have him loose badly.

It even amazes me that some people will believe in their candidate no matter what the numbers. I'm not a Republican (and not a Democrat either), but it seemed pretty clear to me that Romney was in the lead. I'm surprised that Santorium has done as well as he has so far tonight (currently in the lead at 9pm PST), but I think that's a short lived thing.

We'll see. Our political process sure is amusing.