How many joins a day combined does the adult net do?
 

Whats your guess? Every sponsor program, avs, amateur site all of it?

Lets just rule out 4free sites. All joins that a user has to enter a credit card and is potentially getting rebilled.

If webmaster sends join to ars then that is one join not 2 ofcourse

guess away !!!

20 000

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Ah, the always asked perplexing great question of our industry.

A bunch of us tried to figure it out once on YNOT's board ages ago and I think we ended figuring it was about 75,000 per day.

I guessed this same thing about 6 months ago and talking to friends I came up with 80k.. But I think I might have been off..


GUESS GUESS GUESS

75,000 seems way to high. I bet there are not more than a dozen programs doing more than a 1,000 joins a day, at least on the engilsh adult web,
and many are lower than you would think.
And all the amateur, single model sites together probably equal only one or two major sponsors.

If ibill is owned by a publicly reported company you could look at their SEC fillings and assuming a 25% market share, ball park the numbers.

A while back someone told me that between CCBill and iBill they do over $1 Billion a year in billing, if thats true or not I dont know but the guy was someone from the biz so maybe

Good thinking but I think ibill would be more like 15% just an estimate but 25 seems way high for them. There are alot of super powers with there own merchants

who has their own MA?


I heard the high number for the adult web was $800M. I bet that is inflated.
at an average bill of $20, that is 100,000 tranactions a day, at 1/2 joins + 1/2 rebills that is about 50,000 joins a day.

anyway who cares what the whole industry is doing, give me more joins tomorrow than i had today and i am happy.

give you? :Graucho

Lots have there own MA

not too many big boys have their own MA's, hell, Cybererotica from the get go used, aye carumba, forgot their name, Dakota ........ anyway CE used a third party processor and I was amazed years ago when on his radio show Levi said how much they were charging him, i just assumed from the amount of biz he was doing with them that he was getting like 7 or 8%, but he wasn't, he was in the teens.

IBILL has more than 15% of the market, 25% seems a good guess to me. CCBill and IBill hold the answers to this eternal question. What does IBill's public financial statement say they do annually in terms of gross revenues on charge cards, checks and 1-900 billing? Just extrapolate from there.

got it! DMR!

Actually I saw an artice from one of the bigger adult sites on the net. Over all their sites they said they got 5,000 signups a day from their webmasters and their own advertising combined. This was just one of the big sites.

I dont think its dmr mutt

not now, back in ...what 1998?. lotsa folks where using DMR then.

yeah, i have heard 5,000 a day or abouts for the top two, but after that i bet it drops off pretty steeply. Although, if they said that once, i bet they have to keep on saying the same numbers or any decline would be interpreted as a sign of weakness.

So we have
20,000

50,000

and

75,000

Anyone else?

i've got no fuckin' clue. 75K seems way too high.

really? I guess there is 10 programs each doing avg 3k a day (some higher some lower) .
then who knows how many that do 1k a day.
That guess was just sponsor programs enter avs and live cam shit then it doesnt seem to far off

Quiet my guess is not everyone retains as well as you that might be throwing off your numbers we are talking trials here free and all.

I'd probably vote 35-40k new cc based memberships a day. 2 years ago i'd say 80k easy. I dont honestly think there is any one company or individual doing anywhere near 5000 joins a day now adays.

Or are you counting ach, web900, dialer memberships, eurodebit, etc..etc..?

What about cross sales? If i make a sale and the member accepts a cross sale to a xyz.com site, is that 2 sites or 1?

We're talkin specifics here bob. ;-)

Whos bob??
Good points
Cross sells count for sure.
Im leaving out ach and 900 to make it a little simpler.

If cross sells count then add 40% i'd say.

the bob line is from the john travolta movie "Phemonenon" when he's getting interviewed by some nerd.. you had to see the movie. but i swear it was funny! ;-))

I hear a 55-65k

anyone else :)

i meant DMR was Ron Levi's original processor. They are long gone.

Scott Phillips of Pinkbits gave a really good interview to Luke Ford about 6 months ago. All about merchant accounts, they are a bitch to juggle and keep, the secret to his success was that unlike one of the real big boys affiliate programs he could fly under the radar screen and keep doing business his way. Get too big and it's impossible to keep a merchant account.

the very shady operators are all under the radar screen, have international connections, probably multiple companies incorporated in different countries, able to get new merchant accounts for the right amount of money ............... you can still get away with alot if you know the right people in the right places. And ya know, even if the rumors are true and VISA is going to lay down the hammer some more on adult, these types of companies will still figure out a way to run circles around VISA.

yup

yup, i realize that. i still think 75K is way too high. more likely in Hooper's range.

Don't forget AVS :warning

AC and CA are both big enough to bring out there own billing solutions
ACPay and ClearCard respectively. Cyberage also has their net specific Visa card Cybercard.

My guess from talking with some big boys and girls would be around 45-55 k per day.

mabey used to be 80-90k per day, but with the recession, and other things it has slown down.

still good coin to be made though :)

todd

well, i am making 4 sales per day, so my guess is 75,004

By the way, I saw someone talking about retention. The site that said they get 5,000 signs a day to all their sites also said their average retention was only 2 months. The were explaining how they could pay $50 on a join. 2 months at $40 less $50 for the webmaster is $30 before b/w and processing. $30 a pop on 5,000 is pretty damn good.

dude you aren't even considering the upsales, cross-sales, exits, e-mails and ... ;)

If you think one or more companies are doing 5k+ a day each, who are they? It shouldn't be much of a secret. The traffic has to be coming from somewhere.

he also forgot the content production, content purchases, feeds, advertising, chargebacks/refunds, employees (programmers, designers, customer service, tech support, etc), etc, etc.

hmmmm

40,000 without AVS's, cc memberships only.

I completely forgot who it was. I read it about a month ago on a webmaster site somewhere. There were 3 or 4 different people representing different companies doing an interview on the business. I couldn't begin to find where it was. I know for sure it was $50 per join and it was a female than handled the webmaster relations.

I think its close to impossible to get the right number - 50000 or 75000 is pretty big difference

Sounds like possibly Intergal/Sex Hit, just by your description.

That sounds about right. ARS is doing 3000+ a day or? I think MarcDe posted that a few months ago on their board?

My guess is anywhere from 15-30,000 a day

I don't think ARS does 3000 joins a day, I think its more like somewhere between 1500 and 2000 joins a day.

And for the whole internet I would guess it's somewhere between 35,000 to 40,000 joins a day.

I think you guys are way under guessing, I would put it closer to 300,000, maybe even 400,000 or more a day...

You take the top 10 and I bet they do close 40,000 a day....
Then I could probley list 20-30 other programs that do 500-1000 Plus, you have the other 10s of thousands of sites out there as well.... Then there's at least 20,000 amateur single girl sites out there that average 1 a day or so...

I think the important thing here is not what everyone is doing, but what are you doing? I know I'm still working to capturing 1% of the total market and I'll be a happy camper....:winkwink:

sexhit used to do 5k joins a day

YES I agree

good question..........no clue.

what program is doing 3000/day?

2 month members would put it at about 65 million.Who is that?

I would guess there are 3 programs topping 5k per day each.

I would guess there are 3 more programs in the 3-5k per day range.

I would guess there are around 10 programs doing 1-3k per day each.

Another 10 pushing 500-1k each.

Probably 20 pushing 300-500 daily.

And the rest is about 20% of the business.

When I say programs I don't mean that all of these have reseller programs, nor do I mean that all of them are traditional paysite setups either.

These are new joins daily too, not including rebills.

Anyone who believes that the average large paysite keeps their members for two months, even half of their members past the trial, is doing some very incorrect suppositions from what I see.

65k + without breaking a sweat.

It's not the big guys that make these numbers it's the 100,000+ amateur sites that really build the number up.

Top 10 guys do 1k+ daily. Some guys are still pushing around the 3k mark and i'm sure at least one or two is above that.

Some companies have over 100k+ members on a single site so they are for sure pushing large numbers.

In the article I read that I mentioned above they said the average retainment overall was 2 months per member. That is how they justified paying $50 per signup. You have to take into account they have been in business for years. I'm sure their average is great with the members that never leave. But if they weren't retaining 2 months they couldn't pay their affiliates and make a profit.

This includes all types of trials (free, paid) + non trials too I guess? Only around 20 doing 300+ Sign Ups daily wow I thought there would be more sites doing that amount.

How do you get 65million? I come up with 183,000 for 2 months....and like KK said, it's not likely any site with that volume is going to retain anywhere near 100%...

with every paysite out there ... I'm guessing 20,000 ... 10,000-15,000 coming from the 10 biggest sponsors