dazzling |
06-28-2011 01:51 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vendot
(Post 18244617)
China is heading for a major crash - a hard landing. The property market is so overinflated and vacancies abound.
Plus theres all the debt thats piling up in the banking system.
You have to bear something in mind though - China has a MASSIVE surplus (the largest in the world) and the largest amount of foreign reserves. It can bail itself out easily and many times over.
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Actually, there real surplus my be nothing. In fact in real terms their probably around 30 trillion in debt. You need look at it in real terms. In January their Central Bank announced..The currency holdings, reported by the central bank on its website today, rose by $199 billion to $2.85 trillion. That means the debt above already wipes 60% of that out leaving only around $1.1 trillion. These reserves are based mostly on Gold and Silver. If the price drops so do the reserves. Keep in mind China also has more then a billion people, so per person those reserves are lower then most countries in the world.
Next, you have the problem of fake figures, something that China has a long history of.
Even if those figures are only out by %30 then their in debt.
But lets look even closer. That surplus figure that China is bragging about, actually includes the debt of other countries...."In an annual revision of the figures, the United States Treasury Department said that China's holdings totaled $1.16 trillion at the end of December"....THAT IS JUST THE DEBT. Not actually assets. China holds debt in Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Ethiopia, etc that totals trillions. Chances are they will need to write it all off. In effect, Chinas surplus is really more like 30 trillion in debt.
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