Real Estate Bubble
 

April 2005: The average sales price for March was $821,695. This is a new all-time record high, and the first time it has exceeded $800,000.


Santa Cruz county Where I live..

fucking retarded.. 700K gets you a 1100 sq ft shack on a 4500 sq ft lot

We live in California, there isn't a bubble here. It is a slope up and to the right.

It's california, what do you expect from the most overrated state. :2 cents:

800k here gets you a 6,000+ sqft luxury home

Dont come to California, and there is no money in Porn.

This is starting to happen all over, the new condo's in Miami are 400k for a 600ft studio apartment, with no ocean view :(

There's a worldwide bubble. Well, in many nations anyway. The bubble has already burst in some cities. See Sydney, Australia.

Just hope the landing is softer than the 80s real estate bubble in Japan. Real Estate in Japan is down 60% since 1990, 80% in Tokyo.

Interest rates a'risin'. Some people with ARMs are gonna get hurt.

This is the kind of nonsense that is published during a bubble.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg...books&n=507846

OUCH..........that hurts :Oh crap In the last 3-4 yrs I have seen prices double in the Miami area, and the problem is, I am not on the receiving side of the equation :mad:

It is insane but people keep buying homes and developers have not slowed down one bit. There are going to be some very unhappy home owners in the near future when they realize they owe more than their house is worth.

The bay area is now the most expensive place to buy a house in CA. At some point people will say I just can't afford that and the market will come back in line.

I was looking the other day online and in my zipcode in San Jose their are 12 homes for sale under $500,000. Homes might be stretching it as for $240,000 you get a 560 sq ft condo that is 21 yrs old. $450,000 gets you a run down 50+ yr old 2 bed, 1 bath house.

Rental communities have to be loving these prices sky rocketting as they are the only affordable (in a CA way) housing. Nice 2 bedroom apartment still pushes $2000/mo. though. Ah, California living!

They were talking about my RE on the news the other day. Bubble is about to burst. Good buys coming soon! :)

"They" have been saying its about to burst since 1998 when this thing started. $500,000 gain per house later...hmmmmm

id say im glad i didnt listen to people like you and kept on investing..i have 14 houses and there is NO sign of a burst in CA or LV or AZ keep on keeping on..

i have scared friends like you that for years told me "hey man dont buy now, just wait" and they are very sorry.

I went house hunting this weekend on the peninsula, and it was one of the most depressing experiences of my life. The cheapest house we found was 760k for a 3 bedroom 1 bath shack. Even with 100k down (which I don't have) thats about a 4-5k a month mortgage payment depending on your rate. Sigh.

heh ya, 400-500k here and got a nice big ass house.

It's hard finding a house out here that costs more than 200k

Rising interest rates will be the turning point. But I doubt that will happen until Bush is just about to leave office or already gone, cause the economy will nose dive again :helpme

this is what you get in Ottawa Canada for 800k

http://www.homesinottawa.com/newhome...lcrestphot.htm

interest rates are lowered to stimulate our economy, they should not rise high enough to cause a crash.

damn, sounds like i need to move ;( That is a sweet house.

where do you think the best place/city/state is to buy right now?

Holy shit, next time I complain about your cheap car pricing, remind me of this thread, real-estate is going wild here but nowhere near compared to what some of you guys are saying :S

Shit :(

I work with a couple of other investors and we are heading into Phoenix and Austin next month to check out some new pre construction properties.

[10:56] legendarylars: http://www.mlslistings.com/common/pr...property&name=
[10:59] legendarylars: http://www.mlslistings.com/common/pr...property&name=
[11:01] legendarylars: http://www.mlslistings.com/common/pr...property&name=
[11:01] legendarylars: http://www.mlslistings.com/common/pr...property&name=
[11:02] legendarylars: http://www.mlslistings.com/common/pr...26nbsp%3B94027
[11:02] legendarylars: http://www.mlslistings.com/common/pr...26nbsp%3B94027
[11:02] legendarylars: http://www.mlslistings.com/common/pr...property&name=

Probably only run you $200k for that house in Indiana.

I'll take this one http://www.mlslistings.com/common/pr...property&name=

There is a rush of foreign investments since the Dollar is weak and intrest rates are low.

The world is facing an economic scenario has never existed before, and China is the key.

Since 1994 China has pegged its currency to the dollar and with the declining value of the dollar against other major currencies, China's currency has itself become undervalued. During that same period the US trade deficit with China has grown beyond $150 billion a year: more than double the deficit with Japan. China has also become one of the US major creditors: almost half of the $2 billion a day that the US borrows is loaned to it by China, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea.

Effectively China has control of the US economy and if China fulfils its committment to the World Trade Organisation to allow its currency to float, the dollar will collapse, shopping at Wal-Mart will become like shopping on 5th Avenue, interest rates will soar and house prices will implode. Apart from the fact that the Chinese have always gone their own way, the only reason this hasn't already happened is that the Chinese have a huge investment in the US to protect.

My highly unqualified guess is that the correction will come within 3 years. A lot depends on what Chinese objectives were in encouraging this situation in the first place and exactly what pressure to revalue other countries put on China in the meantime. The one sure thing is that the US no longer has the industrial base to trade itself out from under, so if the time scale is longer, the ultimate impact will be much greater. Whatever will happen it is near impossible to imagine a scenario that isn't going to be extremely painful for the US.

Lars you gonna start dumping all that real estate you have or are you going to hold on for a while longer?

Man, if I was in your market I would be dumping like a drunk guy after a night at a mexican taco stand LOL! ;)

DH

:) no I am holding but I am not buying more..

the issue is I think we will see a 10-20% drop.. like we did in 1989.. how many people were in real estate back then i was.... 10 years to break even... and it dipped 10-20% I think we will see the same thing.. not a huge crash but ... a decline for sure.. The problem is Porperty taxes.. I am locked in at low property tax values... what else would I do with the money ? I already have so much stock it makes my head spin.. so I figure sit on the houses till they are all paid off and just suck money off the cash cow.. and sell them when i am 70 or leave them in trust to my kid. Plus I bought all this shit in like 2000 so I already have a nice number of years into them. they are not flippers...

you could always move to indiana and buy this if you have 3.5 mill lying around :)

Lars - how many homes/units do you have?

***

BTW there is rarely such thing as an overall bubble. There are always a handful of areas that go up even when there is a correction in the overall RE market. I have a problem being an absentee landlord though. I like the Florida market right now and will continue here for a few more years but I will have a difficult time buying in another area even with property managers.

I'm not "scared". I'm buying this year. I put down enough on each property that there is a solid profit after mortgage, taxes and maintenance. This is a good way to manage your risk. Profiting from the positive cash flow. I plan on holding these homes for up to a decade - maybe even longer. The real danger is for those trying to flip homes.

What happens at the top of a bubble is that no one knows when it will burst. There are those who make fortunes on the way up and there are those who go broke buying right at the top. Those who buy at the very top of a real estate bubble with the purpose of making profits on equity increase get killed because of the leverage. Historically, frothy RE markets can lose 40% of their value within 6 months. With leverage between 5-1 and 20-1 some people will get killed.

This has happened many times in many places in history - from the local boom in Miami in the 1920s to the entire nation of Japan in the 1980s.

ahh, finally someone with a post count percentage akin to my own.

From my experience in the stock market, the bubble is very close to bursting.

There is one bit of advise that I follow in regards to the stock market, which has treated me well, and I believe it applies to the hosuing market as well:

When everyone and their mother starts buying properties because everyone else around them is making money off of it and they too expect to make a quick profit, that is when the buble will burst.

When people were buying SIRIUS and the stock was at $7, everyone else started to jump on the bandwagon, thinking it was a no brainer, buying at $8...Now SIRI is at $5.

You buy when everyone else is selling, and you sell when everyone else is buying. :)

YUP and i think the stock market is ripe for the pickings in here.. and if the house market dies then lots of investment dollars will head back to the markets.... and i will be selling stocks and buying real estate again 3-5 years from now.

long etfs ewz eem spy qqqq dia iwm

Hahaha, ain't that the truth :winkwink:

I left the Bay Area and was born a raised there.

The tech came in and houses went beyond exageration in price.
It's definatly over rated the area is not even as nice as some of LA's urbanite area's AKA Glendale, Woodland.

The Bay Area was invaded not by just tech but Immigrants and temporary foriegner's grabbing up housing. The Natives didnt even have a fucken chance and many left.

Most of the people I went to High School with left the Bay Area as it grew. The spirit is gone but the realestate is just to stupid on costs.

Now I am thinking about Arizona.
I can own a home there for $900 a month or pay rent in California at $1785 a month...
I like it here in LA but it's just gettin WAY to stupid in Prices and the cost of living.

PS The family bought a house for 180K and another for 120K.
Both sold for over 800K each.

Now they are retired out in Tahoe with 3 properties and living well.

As long as interest rates are kept low, it will not pop