How long will the EU last?
 

As we know it today.

My bet is no longer than 5 years. Simply because the countries making a real profit from the EU can't afford to pay for it. This is assuming the voters will vote to keep paying for the bankrupt nations.

Spain has now asked for a loan. No surprise there, everyone knew they would and the only question was when they would ask. It's not a bailout as Spain which has a lame economy, debts already it can't pay is insisting this loan, which is going to keep their bankrupt banks afloat is being used to repay the loans they already had.

There is no austerity package, no plan to generate growth in Spain or any sort of plan to get Spain able to survive in the Euro. :upsidedow

Similar situation to Greece. Yes they have the plans which won't work, so they will need more money soon.

Eire is struggling hard to get it's economy back on a level keel. After a false boom fed by borrowed money. Portugal is next to go down or will it be Italy? No problem the politicians who dumped us in this shit hole are flying around Europe on full expenses talking to each other and promising to meet again. Can't figure out why, because nothing solid ever emerges from these meetings. Except to have more meetings in a different place. And spend more money.

With hindsight the reasons for this fuck up are clear. The original idea of a trading zone was good. Once the EU started to expand to small less profitable countries, went to a single Parliament and currency it started to go wrong. The boom Germany and others had was based on trade within the EU supported by borrowed money. The money that was being borrowed was being spent on German, French, British, etc goods. Eire, Spain, Italy, Greece, etc were producing what? Besides debts.

The large expansion into Eastern Europe was good for the countries where production was cheaper the Britain, Germany, France, etc. The jobs created here were not new jobs in the EU. Simply jobs moved. Jobs here in construction were to build new office blocks, to house jobs that were in more expensive places. Plus funded by huge EU grants, which aren't coming like they used to.

So when anyone says the EU brought a lot of wealth, ask them how. Because it was built on debt and selling to each other. And now the debt mountain is as big as the wheat mountain or deep as the milk or wine lake.

It won't effect me too much, Eva and especially our daughter it will effect.

While I could dig the no borders deal; I always thought the one currency idea was a joke. I could not believe Germany agreed to use the Euro.

It'll be a slow painful death.

I remember when I used to get paid 3k to post nonsense about Europe.

Who cares.

the fucking China will save you

The politicians and civil servants loved the whole idea. you only had to listen to them to hear the dream they were selling to voters. The single currency was just the next step towards their dream of a single United States of Europe run by politicians and un elected civil servants. The flaw in the plans is so obvious it's funny. Italians don't want to be Dutch and visa versa. All the citizens in Europe see their country and sometimes their region as being different.

The Scottish want to break away, same goes for Wales, Slovakia, the Irish fought a war to break from Britain, so are the Basque and I'm sure there's other places where people want to be self governing.

Yet Strasbourg churns out laws every day to suit the whole of Europe. :upsidedow

Now the Spanish, Greek and other voters are rioting. Because the politicians can't get the money they used to get to bribe them into voting for them.

So the next time a politician promises you a health service, tax cuts or anything. Ask him how will it be paid. Because odds are it's just a bribe to get your vote for him to keep or get a job.

I talked to EU today and she said she will only last 2 more years.

I thought Portugal already crapped out - I think they had their bailout last year.

Will it be around in its current form? - No way, but it will be around - Nobody can afford for it to go down the shitter.

The south/east euro countries would be so fucked that the economic migrants heading north would destroy the host countries as well.

When the EU formed the wealthier countries basically said we will keep the poorer countries heads above water until they are self sufficient. Then they can look after us. We can not back out of that deal now.

I'm not sure whether you are talking about the European Union itself dissolving or just the common currency (the Euro). Regardless, i think it's a 'too big to fail' situation. So there will be bailouts, negotiations, meetings, more meetings, more bailouts, maybe a 'summit' conference or three etc.

If or when the EU/Euro goes, it'll be like bigtymer said: a long painful death.

you ain't fucking kidding comrade.

it is difficult situation...

The sooner the better then we can stop wasting money on these eu countries who think we can just keep pouring money into them while getting fuck all back

You will when less people are spending money on porn. That's what happens when there are huge cuts in pay. The effect spreads.

The pay cuts are allready happening over here in the UK and we are having demonstrations by public sector workers. Even the Police went on on a march. I work in the private sector and talk to a lot of people and a lot of companys are having real cash flow problems which causes wages to be paid late and bills not being paid on time which then causes the workers more bills for late payments. Its a spiraling bubble which is going to burst sooner or later.

We are seeing a huge downgrade and loss in memberships in the company who i work for, We send out letters asking why they have left or downgraded and 99% of the replies is loss of work or pay cuts.

The US is in far worse shape than the EU as said. And basically paying same taxes in the end as any EU country and getting nothing from the government in return. It may be all about confidence but the confidence that the US is doing things right nearly brought Britain down thanks to Tony Blair and David Cameron going along with our bad policies. The only thing that will stabilize the EU imho is if the UK finally decides to jump in, maybe since they have money. But it's only Germany that seem to be capable of balancing a checkbook.

What people don't understand is that the EU is not holding back on its current situation, while the US is like China and will tell you what they want you to. Just like when Bush left the white house and all the shit came to float.

You are right when you say that everyone pays taxes, but in the US you pay to simply breath the fucking air, because you get fuck all back! At least in Europe when you're sick you don't have to worry how the fuck you're going to pay your hospital bills, because there is no bill, and don't anyone start saying thet US hospitals are the best, been there and done that and I prefer without doubt the British health system. Just to tell you one, a friend of mine in Ohio, his house caught on fire and the county fire department sent him a bill of $2,300. Where in the fucking world besides the united fucking states of fucking america do you pay the fire department to put the flames out in your home??

You're all slaves of corporate america that own your life and you look over at the EU like its a system that isn't working.

Maybe you misread my comment, I agree with you 100%. I'm only lucky that despite being stuck in the US I live in a state which basically has socialized medicine so my healthcare is taken care of. It's not even a rich state yet they can manage it. And whenever I go for a checkup I get seen by three doctors. The US is a joke and not even a very funny one.

History says : "empires come and go". Eu is an economical empire .. build on economics .. it will FALL ..as will USA .. it's just a mater of time. On the short term .. i don't think UE will fall soon ... not in a 50 years range. Why? countries like Germany, France, UK ...ALONE ..won't mater in the future economics .. they only have a chance together.. and with a big market around them (small ue countries).. THEY KNOW IT . and will act accordingly. Euro or without euro .. they will stick together.

I quoted what you said, because I agree with you :)

Of course they'd agree to the Euro they're an exporting nation, their goods were expensive because of the mark.

Manufacturing in most other eurozone countries has become much more expensive whilst in Germany it's cheaper.

:2 cents:

not funny ,China will save all of you by starve to death or killing his people

germany is still very strong probably new eu will be new german commonwealth or 4th reich and lame ducks like greece will be dismissed.

us is not in good shape they are just buying time before big collapse

us health insurance is total bullshit they are selling bullshit and conshit or pay 1000 a month even then you are not safe

http://maximedonzel.yagg.com/files/2...ald-hitler.jpg

beware of lame ducks

remember the 30's

hyperinflation happened in my country...prices changed 2x/day...paper money became worthless...

they changed to a new currency in 2-3 days...they took away all the zeroes LOL...

the main problem is US and UK media spreading the fear of EU collapse...
other than that EU have issues that needs to be solved and that should be done ASAP...
EU and UK want the EU down so they could put their crappy values back on the top...

No shit?

Modern Germany is as different from the Reich as hot is from cold.

I do see the EU shrinking to include only Europe's most prosperous countries however.

A good yardstick to see who they'll be long term is pre WWII europe. The Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Finland were all reasonably prosperous in the East.

In the West you have your usual suspects plus Italy (maybe).

As for the USA, we'll muddle along somehow but things are apt to get a tad ugly.

That is the sad true. I've heard on news a time ago, that there are chinese investors, who are negotiating with EU leaders of opening the doors for business. Cutting aside the crap you posted below about starving - you are right - Investment streams from Asia would be welcome to the EU at this current moment and probably will open many work spots for unemployed specialists.

It's a matter of time and way of negotiations to make eventual agreement.

wtf man?

you dont respect the money some EU webmasters give to you?

You sell a product...you should be more careful with your opinion

If you're talking about secession, it's infinitely easier said than done.

"...it is settled law that the Constitution does not permit unilateral secession: A state or group of states cannot simply leave the Union over the objections of the national government. However, the arguments that led to this settled understanding are hardly unassailable, and the Constitution is probably best read as permitting the mutually agreed upon departure of one or more states...."

http://writ.news.findlaw.com/dorf/20041124.html

I have a place in the wilderness that I discovered about seven years ago...that has year around spring water...a creek within walking distance with trout in it. arable land. abundant wild life, including Deer...Elk...and to the best of my knowledge has not been found by any human other than myself for the past seven years. I have built a well camouflaged lean to...and have stocked it with virtually everything I could think of...and there is also a cave nearby that is extremely well hidden that I have well stocked...as a secondary shelter. I update what needs to be updated every year. My dog and I can survive quite well for an indefinite period of time every event other than radiation or something biological...or possibly a major natural event.

after all that blablabla its just like the USA ... and that bullshit of united crap is still there, nagging and bragging ... not? my bet = EU = at least 5 years longer than you live :2 cents:

it will be dragged ad infinitum, if the politicians have their way.

It should of been ended the last bailout. It will just go till the indebted countries owe so much, that there is absolutely no way in hell to repay,then there will be a war.

They wont stand their countries being repoed, gobbled up by the people who lent them the money in the 1st place to keep on their losing ways:2 cents:

hard to agree with the war part. what, like greece is going to stand up to germany and france militarily? not trying to be a smartass (much), but i don't understand where you're coming from with the war part.

Nobody is going to invade anybody :1orglaugh

The countries that welch on their loans will have their credit ratings cut effectively to zero and get kicked out of the EU. That is if they haven't already left on their own.

At worst, sanctions might be applied on them as well, but I rather doubt it. You can't squeeze blood out of a rock after all.