Obama now has an 85.1% chance of winning election
 

The reason it's not 100% is due to the chance of repubs stealing the election.


http://fivethirtyeight.com

great news for Hussein heads

Most people who are voting for Obama aren't doing so because they love Obama. They're doing it because he's still better than the alternative.

Bad news for empty heads.

Jesus H. Christ...where are you people getting this information!?!? Turn to Fox News and Romney will win by a HUGE margin. Tune to MSNBC and Obama is leading in all States, all 57 of them. These polls are so flip flopped I don't even watch the news anymore. It's for ratings and also to brainwash people into thinking THEIR GUY is going to win.

Just vote and hope your guy wins. For the love of Christ, stop watching or reading these partisan media outlets and thinking what they say is gospel. :2 cents:

Nate Silver is not a pollster, he is a top statistician who in the 2008 election correctly predicted 49 out of the 50 states and was also named by Time magazine one of the top 100 most influential people on the planet. A real political hack the guys is. :1orglaugh

we only see him

haha you are wrong, last time I saw he was leading in all 59 states

If Obama wins,,good luck for you people that don't have a lot of money tucked away. Businessmen will sit on their hands for the next 4 years. And you all know that the people that are responsible for creating jobs have the cash to last.

Do you?

Obama will win the election. But with his fiscal policy, the unemployment rate will remain elevated for his entire term. And if we slip back into a recession, just watch how fast he'll blame republicans. If only he didn't have such a big ego and could meet republicans in the middle like Clinton did, the country would be so much better off.

:1orglaugh

So if romney wins all of a sudden businesses will start hiring?? Not likely. Up here the conservative government just blasted big businesses for sitting on money and not hiring like they said they would.

Way too much FoxNews for you.

The Republicans have no interest in meeting Obama in the middle.

The Republican plan after taking the house in 2010 was to block everything and compromise on nothing. In other words, a stalemate with no regard to the damage that would do to the country. Their concept was that if nothing got done in 2011 and 2012, nobody would notice the inaction of Congress and their guy could win the presidency after everyone blamed Obama. And no, that isn't some conspiracy theory bullshit. It was actually their plan.


"GOP says compromise not on the agenda if they retake the House"
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefi...-on-the-agenda

"John Boehner: 'We will not compromise'"
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/44311.html

"House Republicans Vow 'No Compromise'"
http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolit...-no-compromise

"GOP: No Compromise If We Retake the House"
http://redgreenandblue.org/2010/10/2...ake-the-house/



And let's not forget the debt ceiling crisis where Republicans blocked it until the 11th hour, causing the US to lose its AAA credit rating. That action by Republicans caused every American who has gotten a loan since then to pay more in interest.

You Romney fans piss me off... Everyone knows Obama has this in the bag, all 72 states! :mad:

You are a kid. You have no idea how business works. Obama can blast away all he want's if he is reelected. People that run companies are under no obligation to create more jobs.

I can easily run my companies for years at a loss and survive quite well.
If the government moves to a position that is more antibusiness than it already is, it will be the middle class workers that will lose. Not the owners. Kind of like it's been for the last 4 years.

The original joke was "57 states" because at one point Obama mistakenly said "57 states"

You guys just took what was originally an unfunny joke and made it unfunny x3 because you didn't get it.

I understand what you are saying. Do you believe that? You would lose money for four years just because? obama/Romney is not going to make huge changes to anything. Did Bush do that much for you?

Bush lowered taxes. Most of those tax cuts are still in effect. Was supposed to prompt hiring. According to Repubs jobs are crucial this election because people aren't hiring. Lower taxes was supposed to do that. Maybe they really mean it this time or are still lying.

Business owners will hire as long as hiring is profitable. If it earns more to hire, people hire, if it makes more money not to hire they won't hire.

The argument that 'if hiring is profitable, but less profitable than it could be, people won't hire' is simply idiotic... If that we're true, nobody would hire unless taxes were 0 and the government paid each employer for each employee.

Things can always be made more profitable, but if a new employee earns one dollar more for a company than the sum of the costs and risks of hiring, any intelligent owner will hire as long as that remains true.

You were right with the first paragraph.. and welcome back btw. I assume you were affected by the hurricane?

If Obama wins and sets up a higher tax on business like he promises and much higher healthcare costs for their employees like he promises, there will be little incentive for small businesses to grow. Most of my friends are businessmen. I am involved in a number of business groups here and this attitude is what 100% of the business owners I talk to will do. They will move very slowly and very cautiously.

My business has enough cash on hand to double the amount of equipment and employees. I won't invest a thing for at least a year after this election if Obama is reelected. I have heard from him all I need to hear.

Bush messed up with the banks. He buried his head in the sand while millions of people bought homes that they couldn't afford. As far as small business goes, yes we did very very well during his administration. By not constantly threatening to raise our expenses we didn't spend any time looking over our shoulder. We looked forward and made a lot investments into our business.

You republicans are to blame for this.

First, you picked romney.

Then, you let him run without stating a clear platform, just making the magical promise that the corporations would start hiring again if he was president, without any policies or reasons why they should do that.

You made vague fear-filled and fantatsic suggestions about why obama was bad, and equally bad, vague, and fantastic suggestions about why romney was good.

Your whole platform was based on losing propositions - lower taxes on the rich, higher taxes on the middle class, more wars including an attack on iran, less regulations for the people who caused the economic crisis, less healthcare for everyone, more low paying jobs for everyone.

Why couldn't you see that your approach to this election was stupid?

You should have had a real platform with clearly defined policies and believeable promises.

This is ALL your fault. You let this happen. Worse than that, you let idiots and teh corporations tell you what to think and what to believe.

You republicans let old white men without apparently a clear thought in their head control your message to women voters with idiotic statements about rape.

Then, instead of repudiating those idiots, you closed rank to protect them, in order to appease the religious nutjobs that have taken over your base.

You let the religious right take charge of your social platform with more ant-woman policies regarding the right to a safe abortion, something that matters a lot to all women of breeding age.

You let crazy religious people dominate your message about social policies in other ways - even tho this counttry has made it clear it does not want religious leadership, that religion should be a personal matter.

You make it clear that you are filled with fear by talking about more wars all the time, and by talking about the need for more ships and weapons - after the whole country just saw how pointless and expensive your wars can be, how little good it does for the nation to run about attacking countries.

Wars are expensive as fuck and we get NOTHING from them, no benefit.

But you are scared, afraid of the goatfuckers, so you want more wars. That's not a winning plan politically.

When obama wins, know this - YOU GAVE HIM THIS ELECTION.

It should have been an easy win for you.

Both fucking suck. Vote for Santa Claus 0-12!

Let me see if I understand this correctly.... Your telling us that if Obama wins, businessmen will lock up their money and not expand?

We had Obama for the past year... And yet you opened up a new plant? Expanded?

Businessmen will expand no matter who is in office.

War is good for certain industries that invest heavily in supporting Republican's re-election bids.

It's not what I am telling you. It's what has happened and will continue to happen. Business has cash to invest. They have no confidence. And they have only dribbled out small amounts of cash,very carefully.

I opened the new plant this year. I could've done it 3 years ago. After the last federal election the democrats lost the house. It was a good sign. If Obama wins, it won't be a good sign. I don't need to beat it to death. Wait and see what happens.

You aren't a businessman. You don't cover payrolls,insurances, benefits and large taxes.
So speaking for what businessmen will do is beyond your scope.

Do you realize how that sounds to the american voter?

Threats, blackmail, and extortion don't typically play well. Nodody likes a cheapskate or a bully. Playing against obama's ridiculous 'hope' with your own equally ridiculous 'fear' was always a losing gambit.

Again, this is the mistake you guys made this election, focusing on vague nonsensical threats and fear.

You need realistic policies, clear proposals and plans, and a non-religious, non-fear-based social political and economic vision.

If I made policy,you can rest assured they would be realistic. Unfortunately, I can only abide by the policies that other enact.

You say threats. I say, look at what has happened. It's no secret that business is cash flush. You say fear..I say absolutely people should fear this administration. As it is, the 47% don't provide the jobs.

If Obama wins, he will clearly be gone in 4 years. I will still be here and doing what I do today. As I said earlier. Most business people have the means to ride it out like they have since Obama was elected.

So, your saying what, here? That obama has not been business friendly?

Then why is the stockmarket doing so well?

This is the disconnect that the american voter sees - that business seems to be doing GREAT, has tons of cash on hand, is moving out of the country faster than ever - why should the voter see it differently?

Why should the voter want harder jobs that pay less, want worse and more expensive healthcare, want to see their pensions stolen by wall street, want to see business owners spend their cash stash on yachts and vacations out of the country, rather than on expansion?

And we have had the lowest taxes in the industrialized world for decades - why should business get even lower taxes, and workers get more taxes, when all it has done is caused more debt and fewer, worse paying jobs?

You are not looking at this the way the voters do. And thats why you will almost certainly lose.

You seem to think you are making a point in favor of romney - what did you think romney would do that would have been different?

There are people with a lot of money that put politics before common sense. For an example see Donald Trump. Save your breath.

The stock market is for people that are liquid. It's not brick and mortar investments. With the stroke of a key I can take my money out of the market.

I won't lose. It's people that need jobs and better paying jobs that will.

What Romney will do different is NOT spend every moment he can telling the people that he is going to let the *rich* people making over $250k pay a little more.

I don't think he would've spent the first 2 years doing backroom deals to get healthcare reform passed when the economy was in terrible shape.

Again - disconnect. The voters see it. The question is, why dont you republicans?

Why do the rich get a pass on paying back the deficit, shifting the burden to the rest of the people? Thats what the voter sees, more special priviledges for the rich. The rich wanted lower taxes, they got them, but things did not get better, and now all that borrowed money has to be paid back. The rich broke the deal - the deal was, lower taxes now for better jobs and more overall tax collections later - and the payback never came. All that happened was speculative bubbles that burst and left the people worse off than ever.

And the rich are saying, no, we dont want to pay our share. We are special. The rest of you pay it back, not us.

It's not a position that can win elections.

The fact that your best presentation for romney is "you dont think he would do healthcare reform" is again why you are losing.

People like the healthcare reform so far. So does wall street. They don't know whether it will be better in the long run, but they know they did not like the old system.

Telling the voter "republican policy is that you have to go back to the old healthcare" is a losing proposition, politically.

This is why you will almost certainly lose.

Have you ever watched an Obama speech? I am thinking you haven't if that is what you think he spends all of his time talking about.

Nobody really likes obama. Yet he will probably win.

Why? Because the republican policy making machine is broken.

You guys have to dump the religious nutjobs, and go back to fiscalism.

But you can't - because you gutted and betrayed your own fiscal policies, starting with reagan, wh began the "lower tax collections but cover the difference with deficit borrowing" policies that have defined republican (both neocon and neolib) fiscalism for decades.

Lowering tax collections without cutting spending to match, and borrowing to make up the difference, is actually RAISING TAXES, because the borrowed money has to be paid back with interest by future taxes. This is the fundamental betrayal that is eating the republican party from within like a cancer.

Because you betrayed your own beliefs, you need the religious nutjobs to have any base at all.

You did this to yourselves.

The democrats have a similar problem, they also have betrayed their philosophy, but in this election, their disconnect is being seen by the voters as less damaging than the republican disconnect.

What is it you think I am going to lose? I have a job that no one can fire me or lay me off from.

Heya Minte,

I'm not back quite yet. No power, no gasoline, 45' trees down in my yard, no Internet, no heat etc... So I'm on hiatus in Connecticut and thankfully nobody was injured etc... Here we have no Internet other than cellular but the light, heat, wine and food are top shelf. Hopefully I'll be back in a week, but I'll be driving back and forth to vote so don't worry mine will still count ;)

I totally agree if hiring becomes unprofitable it will cease, but I'm confident Obama knows that as well. I'd expect plenty of breaks for hiring and tariffs on profit-taking if he is reelected. Hiring will get a boost because it will be incentivized strongly in the tax code. That much will be true no matter who wins...

Are you being coy?

I meant, obviously, this is why you (the republicans) will almost certainly lose (this election).

Look, I get it, it's emotionally satisfying to threaten voters. "Vote republican or we won't make any jobs for you". It just doesn't work.

You guys shouldn't be saying things like that if you want to win. You shouldn't even imply it, because voters actually can read between the lines.

I also am entirely self-employed, and can't be fired or laid off. I haven't drawn a paycheck, or gotten a w-2, since 1986. So, it's not like you are super special.

I'm not a republican. Nor do I think I am super special. I vote for the person I think is best suited to be the president. Spend, tax then spend more is not ever going to get my enthusiasm or my vote.