mineistaken

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/ This was praised on GFY (and elsewhere) as one of the most reliable prediction sites.
Trump has whole 39% chance.
While some of you talked and acted as if he has "no chance" or 1% or something like that.

My request of you:
a) Be a man and admit that you were wrong saying that Trump has no chances, his chances are joke etc.
b) Claim that you are smarter/better in calculating chances than this site.

mineistaken

EddyTheDog

I admit it - I underestimated peoples stupidity...

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Bladewire

He is a threat

Make a difference #VoteDemocrat!

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mineistaken

Bladewire

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GFED

Fuck the NWO. Fuck the globalists. Fuck Clinton.
Oh, and fuck Obama for raising my healthcare premium 3x and deductable 10x for the same plans.

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pornmasta

I don't understand trump's strategy, it's like he plays stupid on purpose.

bronco67

me too....there are some dumb motherfuckers out there.

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C H R I S

Hate is a strong emotion....

The odds have definitely come up for him, even Michael Moore thinks he's going to win....

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ilnjscb

He did exactly what I said he would do. I have always said he'd be the #1 challenge, and he will be. Journalists don't know anything about American people. Clinton will have to fight to win. Trump will have to fight to win.

Relic

onwebcam

Trump will win the popular vote and the establishment will give it to Hillary.

TisMe

Trump has an excellent chance of winning. He speaks in short "Bumper Sticker" phrases that any and every moron can understand.

Never says how he's going to do anything or how anything will be paid for, but he's just gonna do it.

There are more than enough morons who hear what they want to hear with no substance involved and they will vote for Trump.

crockett

The problem with Trump is his own mouth. He doesn't know when to stop.. All.he does is offers up empty promises with nothing to back them up.

Added to this he uses a teleprompter.. To hear you right wingers whine and cry about Obama using a teleprompter in the past we all know he can't possibly win, just for that fact alone.

Rochard

I am stunned that Trump has made it this far and that he is doing so well.

However, this is far from over. Right now Trump has been dominating the news for the past few days because of the Republican Convention but he is still trailing in the polls. Clinton will see a little bump in the polls. At the same time, Clinton hasn't really start to attack Trump. I believe once she does start to attack she will do even better in the polls.

I cannot explain what is happening here. Trump seems to be cashing in on pure hate and outright lies. Tonight in his speech he said crime is going up in our cities, yet the reality is crime has been dropping at a steady pace. He also said our economy is bad but all indications seem to be it's good and getting better. The Republican party is saying "We can't do four more years" and I'm asking why not - The economy is getting better, unemployment is going down... We are also out of two wars we needed to get out of and more people are on healthcare than ever before. Frankly, it doesn't get much better than this.

Trump tonight said he was going to make our military larger. He doesn't seem to understand our military grows and shrinks depending on our needs. Our military grew when we were fighting two different wars in two different countries. Now this growth is not needed. I obviously love our military and I love it when we flex our muscle, but I understand how our military staff has changed in numbers in the past seventy years.

I also do not understand this talk about a wall. It's not like people are sneaking across our border; They drive across at the border checkpoint. And it seems more illegal aliens are leaving then coming across. Why would we spend billions of dollars on a wall that will do nothing? You can't even argue security from terrorists because our northern border is wide open as well.

Then there is the deficit. Trump is making it sound like the deficit will go through the roof under Clinton. However, under her husband, didn't the deficit shrink? Wouldn't Clinton be the better choice here?

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Axeman

Are you really this dense??? Please tell me you are just trolling and not this obtuse. My lord.

No illegals are crossing the border other than at border checkpoints?

You want to disagree with Trump and Republican points, do it. But don't be intellectually dishonest about it. Its ok to disagree and be honest.

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GFED

Well, Obama did nearly double our national debt.

Paul Markham

Once Trump is asked how he plans to do things, his support will drop.

So far he's said very little on how his promises will be kept and what he has said is nonsense.

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nico-t

true... over 60 %... crazy

nico-t

Are you insane? The whole middle east is in ashes, millions of young men who hate the west and all the people who live here are pouring into our western societies, terrorist attacks have become the norm in civilized European countries... what the fuck are you smoking
You guys are lucky that sandbox is on the other side of the world for you, if it would be as close as Europe the US would have way more terrorist attacks than Europe is getting now.

It doesn't get any better than this... certified loon

mineistaken

[QUOTE=Axeman;21051346]Are you really this dense??
Trust me, he is, he proved this numerous of times.

mineistaken

Something closer to 50%, those numbers 61/39 are chances of winning, not percentages of popular vote

Paul Markham

Who lit the fire?

The ME has been on fire since 2,000 BC. Or even before that. The West needs to get out of the ME and buy the oil from who ever's in charge. When that runs out, take back all the stuff they bought with our money and let them go back to fucking camels. They would fuck us if they were given the chance.

Bush and the Republican let the bankers and ME war fuck the World. Now will the Republicans allow Trump to do it again? As for the crimes they committed, well no one seems bothered with that. The Chilcott Inquiry painted a very bad picture of Bush and Blair.

Are Americans better off? What's the average wages of the bottom 90%? How many of the new jobs pay average wages?

Will Americans take the pain of putting the US First? It will require more goods to be made in the US or higher import taxes. Taking out illegal migrants by fining employers so much there's no financial benefit, same goes for landlords. This will mean high prices because wages will rise.

You see I remember the 1960s and 1970s and we had a lot less because prices were higher. The price for the cloth I bought, to make a coat in the 70s, is now the price of a Chinese-made coat is a local mall today.

Prices for everything will climb and you will all have to buy less. Because your wage riases won't keep pace.

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C H R I S

He will never answer those questions, or release his tax returns.

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nico-t

Changing the quote to Drumpf - that shows how easily influenced some people are. You watch a bitter establishment propaganda piece disguised as the worst type of "comedy" I have ever seen (it's right on the "comedy" bottom with the Daily Show) spreading the message to call Trump 'Drumpf'. It's such poor joke, but the weak minded soak it up like a sponge and repeat it like trained parrots... I can't believe it.

It would be different if the joke was actually good. I was literally thinking, "is that really the best they came up with in the writing room? Drumpf?"
I couldn't believe the low quality of this "joke". It's the type of thing 4 year olds come up with...

PR_Glen

how would you know what funny is? you haven't laughed or even enjoyed anything since 1989...

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Rochard

Yawn. You can argue about all of this until you are blue in the face.

Look at the graph. Are we better now than we were in 2008? Yep.

As for other points.... Yes, people still cross the border illegally, but most of them just drive across through a check point. And yes, the deficit always increases - Why is Trump going to be any different?

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Rochard

Yes. And this is different form the past administration how? And the administration before that? And the administration before that? And the administration before that?

The middle east has been on fire for decades - since the 1960s. For the most part we stayed out of it, until the Bush administration. Right now we are out of two wars we didn't need to be in, Americans aren't losing their lives in the middle east by the thousands, and they aren't attacking us. That is IDEAL.

This is one of the biggest problems with politics - they try to blame everything on the person in office "right now". Trump is telling the world about how Obama raised the deficit, but... The reality of this is every president has raised the deficit. Right now you are saying "the middle east in ashes" but the reality of it is the middle east has been "in ashes" for decades. Obama is surely not the one to blame, and Trump is surely not the one to fix the problem.

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Horatio Caine

He did explain for every sipleton dumbass that his strategy is to declare default and reneg our debt. Just like he did with his hotel. You know that running hotel is just like running #1 economy in the world. Any Trump University graduate can do it.

GFED

We will default. Trump or not.

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imabro

You haven't met Rochard yet, I see.

Yes he is

baddog

Crime is down? Where is that? LA just released stats stating otherwise

Paul Markham

You can call him whatever you like. He's still not going to deliver what he promises.

The hard part for you and people like you to understand is. If he does deliver on his promises, you will complain and vote him out.

Apart from scrapping Obamacare his main policies will those earning enough to get by and everyone above them. Cutting imports from the Third World and stopping mass migration, will push prices up to a level you won't be able to buy as much as you can now. Imagine paying 2-3 times as much for every white goods, clothing and many other goods including things like cars. Look at the labels to see where so many parts are manufactured. Imported food will rise in price, food picked by illegal Mexicans will cost a lot more. To get Americans to pick it.

Should he decide to spend, spend and spend again on the Military how much will he raise taxes by to pay for it? Or will he borrow more? The good thing is it will mean more employment in that sector. The danger is he will use it to get his way or knee jerk reaction to a terrorist attack. Islamic Terrorists will double their efforts to provoke him. Another incident link Benghazi puts the US back at war.

Obamacare works. The reason it costs more is the bad health of Americans and the high costs, ass raping, of the medical industry.

Unless you're in the bottom 20% he will cost you more money. Look at his supporters, mostly top 50% or mostly bottom 20%?

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Paul Markham

All those employment stats are bullshit. What counts is wages. Losing one paying $50k and replacing it with two paying $20k is a loss of $10k to the economy. Figures are an example. Principle is sound as Income tax drops so borrowing climbs.

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Paul Markham

Even a simpleton dumb ass who lives under a rock realises defaulting is the last thing the US will do.

Who loans money to people who turn around and says "We ain't paying the debt?"

I would like to change my previous statement. We found the dumb ass.

The US will keep paying the interest, keep borrowing, so you can keep buying cheap trinkets from the Third World. You will not like the alternative.

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kane

This article says violent crimes are down 51% since 1991 and is at its lowest since 1970.

Paul Markham

When voters don't examine the facts behind the words, study what measures are required to make the words into facts. They end up disappointed.

I'm 100% for an end to free trade. It has meant an export of jobs to the Third World and a continuing rise in imports and widening trade gap that has made us worse off. The lowering of wages over the last 50 years and Income Tax revenue is partly to blame for the need to borrow. It has also made unstable or/and dictatorships run countries able to threaten the West. N.Korea is nothing without Chinese backing, China is now a military threat in the Orient. All of that will get worse.

The Chinese Leaders won't stop until they dominate the World. They're trying to take over steel production, Banking, Science, Engineering are huge parts of their economy. Clothing, white goods, electrical always were but now they rule them, they have to find new markets. Wait until they step up car making to the level where Western Car makers can't compete.

50 years ago they were starving to death, now with the help of the 1% and politicians, they're on the path to be #1 in the world.

Migrants should get no State Benefits what so ever. Unless they have a trade so required and so badly paid they need the State to subsidise them. People like teachers, doctors, and nurses.

People who employ illegals should be fined so much there is no financial benefit and in fact a huge loss in employing illegals.

The West needs to stop thinking it can change the way others think. Afghans, Iraqis, Iranians, etc. Are happy to live like they used to 500 years ago. So let them, but tell them if they step out of their zone, their government and combats training camps get hit so hard. They will regret it. We need to stop thinking of them as people who yearn to be like us. The proof is everywhere, they don't want to be like us, even when given the chance.

As for stopping them migrating, make sure only the cream can migrate. Only the ones we really need.

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Mutt

A quote that really got me thinking from a man who knew a thing or two about the importance of the military. The older I get the less I know what's best for a democracy, the United States in particular, since it's the leader of the free world has responsibilities that the rest of the world doesn't have on its plate.

Trump is talking like an isolationist, he called it 'Americanism', that's where America was in the inter-war years and why there was a neutrality law that prohibited the US government from providing any aid to any other country for war/defense purposes. Trump stating that he wouldn't necessarily help Baltic countries if invaded by Russia is insane. He talks too much without thinking. He claims he was against the Iraq war and if so he was right - we have no allies in the Middle East other than Israel. But European allies, the US has a responsibility to defend its allies. If he is an isolationist his promise to beef up the military makes no sense, the US military is big enough at its current level since his claim is he won't be getting the US into more wars for the benefit of military contractors and oil companies. He claims there are NATO countries not paying their fair share, if true, he's right the US should demand they pay more. The US will never be invaded itself, didn't happen in WWII, it will never happen. Nukes or nothing for us on this side of the ocean.

He's right that nation building has been a failure, a very expensive failure but defending democratic allies isn't nation building.

He's not a true conservative at all, the bill for all he says he wants to do will be staggering - where's that money coming from? His only answer is that the economy is going to be fantastic, unbelievable, so presumably that's where he thinks he's going to be able to pay for it all.

I liked his candidacy a lot more 10 months ago, what I've seen and heard from him since is very worrisome. How uniformed he is for a man who lives in the circles he does, a graduate of Wharton, is shocking. I'd vote for Ivanka, she is the winner in that family. I am hoping her faith in her father isn't just a daughter's loyalty.

I'm caught in the middle, as are many people, I despise Hillary Clinton and I've grown not to like liberals - the Internet has been responsible for that, social media is filled with social justice warriors who are the inverted image of the trolls/haters that attack them. They are haters themselves, anybody who doesn't agree with their point of view is a racist uneducated misogynist - they gobble up whatever comes out of academia and liberal media, never thinking for themselves.

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beerptrol

This nation mirrors the movie Idiocracy, so he has a chance!










it's got electrolytes

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Rochard

This might be true, but... Reality sucks, get a helmet.

I am not sure how the recession went down in Europe, but here in the United States it sucked the wind out of us. People lost their jobs, their houses, their investments, their life savings. Just because the recession is over doesn't mean everything goes back to where it was before the recession. My house lost two thirds of it's value, and seven years later it's still worth less than half of what I originally paid for it.

This is not a four or eight year problem. This is a ten to twenty year problem. The primary goal is to get people back to work, and this has happened. Eventually wages will return to normal levels.

People have quickly forgotten how bad it was. People complain about the economy, but keep in mind six years ago we were at 10% unemployment.

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Rochard

Nation building has failed. We did this in Germany and Japan at the end of WWII, and it worked great. But the middle east is a completely different society.

I believe these middle eastern countries are never really fully in control of their country. They might control the major cities, but outside of that they have very little control. Pakistan and Afghanistan are good examples of this. And this is where these extremists operate - and thrive.

What happened in Germany (and Europe) and Japan will not work in the Middle East.

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imabro

Not everywhere

Mutt

I don't consider America's handling of post WWII Japan and Germany as nation building, they were powerful, educated, advanced countries who had a history of democracy, the US helped them to rebuild infrastructure and reform their society to some form of democracy. That success sent a wrong message to American politicians, that nation building could succeed in any country.

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plaster

I hate cnn... never realized so many tards watched it before until reading posts on gfy.

Hate, hate, hate cnn.

P.s. I just got my enormous make America great again hat and am wearing it as I post this. It looks like a gigantic chef hat and fits very awkwardly but I love it!

mineistaken

True patriot

Hannes

hes not going to win, he's a billionaire. i don't think he will be affected a hell of a lot

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Rochard

Crime has been dropping fort he past twenty years.

United States Crime Rates 1960 - 2014

From Wikipedia:

Crime rates have varied over time, with a sharp rise after 1963, reaching a broad peak between the 1970s and early 1990s. Since then, crime has declined significantly in the United States, and current crime rates are approximately the same as those of the 1960s.

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Rochard

I would call it nation building really. In both Germany and Japan there was very little infrastructure, and all of the functions of the government was taken over by the United States in Japan and the Allies in Germany. In Germany a new government was created.

The success in Germany and Japan did send the wrong message to American politicians. They think "no problem, we'll defeat their military, remove their government, and set up a new government". And they think everyone will accept this. This is not always the case.

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