mineistaken

I was always fascinated by GFYers who claimed something like this. You know who you are, props to you if you come out and admit being wrong.

Anyway, here is the debunking:

Four Problems With the 'Winnowing' Theory of Trump's Downfall - Bloomberg Politics

Main points:
1. 65% is not that far from Rubio's 67%. Cruz has 71%, also nothing staggering compared to how those "Trump only has 30%" types tried to depict
2. Trump has even more 65vs59 than Romney had. And Romney did not lose general election in a trashing way like some of the libbies tried to depict would happen in case of Trump vs Hilary. Again - you know who you are, props if you come here admitting you were wrong.

Additional point: Trump maybe more attractive to some left leaning voters than Romney was.

And just a thought - do you think lots of republicans would vote democrats instead of Trump in general election or something just because they did not like Trump. Nope, they would still vote republican, even if they did not like the guy that much.

bronco67

Sorting through percentages and polling figures to end up with the result you're looking for will not put that Neanderthal in the White House. But if it helps you pass the time then have fun.

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mineistaken

This thread is merely to debunk a popular myth that many GFYers were posting non stop.

bronco67

Ok, but I'm telling you this jerk-off will not be in the Oval Office. If he does make it there by some miracle it'll mean we've truly become that movie Idiocracy. I think the American people as a whole are intelligent enough to see through a narcissistic demagogue sociopath. He sure looks popular inside of his comfortable bubble of raving lunatics, but wait until he's one on one against someone with actual knowledge on issues. He will get schooled and no amount of brow beating or name calling will bail him out.

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Vendzilla

You just aren't paying attention are you?

I love the fact that the more names the liberals call him, the more his popularity goes up!

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Carbon is not the problem, it makes up 0.041% of our atmosphere , 95% of that is from Volcanos and decomposing plants and stuff. So people in the US are responsible for 13% of the carbon in the atmosphere which 95% is not from Humans, like cars and trucks and stuff and they want to spend trillions to fix it while Solar Panel plants are powered by coal plants
think about that

mce

Looks like Trump is Unstoppable

I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up getting north of 20% of the black vote

That would be a NIGHTMARE scenario for Hillary

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ilnjscb

Man the press is wigging!

GOP leaders, you must do everything in your power to stop Trump

The Washington Post, no less!

These guys must really believe he can win. I think Clinton can defeat him, but evidently they don't.

Sly

Each and every week for the last, what, 8 months, the press has been saying The Don will be dead in a week. You would think by now that they would have figured out regardless of what they say, the opposite seems to happen. They should start rooting for Trump!

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VRPdommy

The problem Trump faces is that even with a total of 35% of the vote and if anyone else gets at least 20% of the votes, they will take it from him at the convention.

I'm expecting just that. A FIGHT on the floor of the convention where things are decided behind closed doors.

Rubio and Kasich Will get the nod if one of them can get at least 20% by convention time and Trump stays under 40%.

I know there are many disbelievers of this but look at the rules. Party insiders don't want Trump.

His only hope is to get more than 50%. Then, there can be no crafty shake down.

Tubthumper

Congressmen are coming out in support for Trump now. This is just the beginning.

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"Pretty women make us buy beer, ugly women make us drink beer." - Al Bundy

Robbie

That takes some balls. The RNC is not for that. And they are putting their political careers on the line if Trump doesn't win the WhiteHouse (not that politicians SHOULD have careers...they should ALL be "one and done")

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-Robbie
ClaudiaMarie.Com

mineistaken

There are some states where winner takes all (like SC), for example Florida - Trump is leading polls there.
So even if Trump cruises on 35% in all states he still would have much more in delegate count.

Trump?s Remorseless Delegate Math Means Rubio and Cruz Are Screwed - The Daily Beast

He may collect 50%+ majority.
You mention "under 40%". I am absolutely certain it will be more than 40%. Only question - bellow or above 50%.

As for if convention is contested and Trump is in high lead (but not 50%+) - he may have a card of threatening to go independent. He pledged he won't, but he may say that GOP treated him unfairly since he had most of the delegates etc etc.
Just an idea actually. An idea of why GOP might be afraid not to hand it to Trump if he was in high lead.

Rochard

All of this is a lot of guesswork.

I did see something today on CNN about Trump's track record being very similar Romney's, and of course Romney lost. However, that is like comparing apples to pineapples. Winning the nomination of political party is one thing, but running a presidential campaign is completely another thing. One involves winning over a single political party, the other is winning over the majority of the nation.

You can also argue that Romney didn't loose because he ran a bad campaign or wasn't "good enough"; It's entirely possible he lost only because the general population was still made at the Republican party for Bush and or the recession that happened under Bush's watch. Perhaps he was the right candidate at the wrong time.

Keeping in mind that a lot can change between now and November.... All polls seem to say the same thing - Trump will win the Republican nomination, Hillary will win on the Democrat side, it will be Trump vs Hillary, and Hillary will win.

It's going to be fun and interesting to watch for sure.

__________________
“The choice is no longer between right or left. The choice is between normal and crazy.”
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders

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mce

Trump is NOT Romney.......

Romney got sunk by his 47% comment

Trump's been SPITTING OUT 47% comments since Day One

The more he gets HATED ON, the STRONGER he gets

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mineistaken

Brassmonkey, blackmonsters, rally up your hoods

Barry-xlovecam

â??The will of the nation is one of those phrases most widely abused by schemers and tyrants of all ages.â?� [meaning ages as in history] Alexis de Tocqueville, French author of Democracy in America, 1835

â??The mob is always impressed by appearances and by results; and the world is composed of the mob.â?� Niccolo Machiavelli,The Prince

â??No tempest or conflagration, however great, is harder to quell than mob carried away by the novelty of power.â?� Marcus Tullius Cicero -- Roman philosopher, politician, lawyer ...

Wise men in history have addressed these same issues, our times are not unique.

Be careful what you ask for -- you may just get it

Vendzilla

At this point comparing where Romney was and where Trump is, Trump is way ahead

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Carbon is not the problem, it makes up 0.041% of our atmosphere , 95% of that is from Volcanos and decomposing plants and stuff. So people in the US are responsible for 13% of the carbon in the atmosphere which 95% is not from Humans, like cars and trucks and stuff and they want to spend trillions to fix it while Solar Panel plants are powered by coal plants
think about that

mikesouth

LIBERALS? LOL he RNC has done everything but tell Rubio or Cruz to step down to try to derail trump the RNC is more afraid of him than the so called liberals are...

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Mike South

It's No wonder I took up drugs and alcohol, it's the only way I could dumb myself down enough to cope with the morons in this biz.

mikesouth

They see the writing on the walls for themselves they have to run again....politically now is a good time to jump on the antiestablishment bandwagon, even if you have been suckling the public teat your whole life

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Mike South

It's No wonder I took up drugs and alcohol, it's the only way I could dumb myself down enough to cope with the morons in this biz.

mikesouth

After Mar 15 ALL republican primaries are winner take all you wanna see how serious the RNC is watch and see if THEY run a 3rd party candidate to derail their own guy If that happens in any way shape or form its proof how corrupt the dem and Reps are and that they are of a single purpose

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Mike South

It's No wonder I took up drugs and alcohol, it's the only way I could dumb myself down enough to cope with the morons in this biz.

mikesouth

Finally they should make the first Hillary Trump debate a pay per view...even Id pay to watch that carnage

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Mike South

It's No wonder I took up drugs and alcohol, it's the only way I could dumb myself down enough to cope with the morons in this biz.

mineistaken

Either not true at all, or this is not reliable:
Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

mikesouth

yer right my bad after Mar 1 almost all are winner take all my local news has been a bit loose with that but the idea is that big delagate counts like OH and I think FL and others are winner take all...at this point I dont see trump getting derailed...and six months ago i would have bet that by know he would be forgotten....He has struck a chord that people are respnding to...In Nevada he won easily..combined rubio and cruz still couldnt beat him but the real interesting thing is trump wo in every demographic, whites, non whites, hispanics, young, old, evangelical, college educated, post grads, and high school grads.

It seems to me that 60% or more that never votes has awakened, record turnouts are propelling him to victory despite the best efforts of the conservative press, FOX News, The RNC and everyone else involved in politics as usual to end his run.

That change that Obama promised.....looks like its coming...but not what was expected...

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Mike South

It's No wonder I took up drugs and alcohol, it's the only way I could dumb myself down enough to cope with the morons in this biz.

Dead

for the Record, Marley 2016!

in all seriousness to your original question, as soon as I read he would run, I thought to my self, fuck, this could work?

I was ridiculed when I mentioned it to my peers, and I quote "no fucking way" to which I smiled and went back to the original thought running through my brain.....fucker has a chance?

Fast forward and please note, I have no dog in the fight except to watch the people kill each other from the side lines, and low an behold! This fucker may just take the whitehouse and paint it white again!

Gawd Bless America!

#whitehousesmatter

Rochard

I forgot about that comment he made.....

And it's amazing that Trump is getting away with what he is saying. It's because NO ONE is calling him out on it. Not his opponents or the press. I just read an article where they caught Trump on audio this morning during an interview at MSNBC saying "Don't ask me any hard questions". Beating him shouldn't be hard - just play his greatest hits. You know, "Mexicans are rapists" and all that.

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- Sarah Huckabee Sanders

YNOT MAIL | THE BEST ADULT MAILING SOLUTION

dyna mo

The reason Trump is "getting away with it" had nothing to do with no one calling him out on it. In fact, he been called out on his comments time and again all the way back to the first debate when megyn Kelly called him out.

He's winning because his supporters are trying to send s message that Americans are fed up with established politics as usual.

And the Mexicans love Trump.

mineistaken

I know that sample size is super small and all that, but found a very unexpected graph:


basically whites and latinos voted exactly the same.
Of course that is only "republican latinos" who are usually identifying themselves as Americans (third generation and more etc).
Still, interesting fact.

ilnjscb

Now they've persuaded Rubio to attack him, which is hilarious, since Rubio is a bigger scumbag than any of them, and threw over his "mentor" the moment he got the chance. How a no-show first term senator who has never been anything but a disloyal Bush butt boy is the standard bearer of the republicans ... what a joke.

mineistaken

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump · 6h6 hours ago

When Mitt Romney asked me for my endorsement last time around, he was so awkward and goofy that we all should have known he could not win!

mineistaken

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump · 13h13 hours ago

.@USATODAY Poll and @QuinnipiacPoll say that I beat both Hillary and Bernie, and I havn't even started on them yet!

blogspot

Go Hillary...

mineistaken

Go traitor!

And Trump is so much more entertaining:

pornmasta

wait for Clinto before speaking about myths about ceilings

pornmasta

you support the illuminati :wehateporn: