Analysis: Thinking the unthinkable -- a euro zone breakup

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  • DWB
    Registered User
    • Jul 2003
    • 31779

    #1

    Analysis: Thinking the unthinkable -- a euro zone breakup

    Interesting read on Reuters... Link

    I know pornographers know better than everyone else in the world, including the experts, so please comment on where they are wrong and why it would never happen.
  • Odin
    Confirmed User
    • Jan 2004
    • 2545

    #2
    Hope it does happen. The fatherland needs to unshackle itself from these incompetents.
    ICQ: 637//961--015

    Comment

    • Klen
      • Aug 2006
      • 32235

      #3
      Eurozone will never break up,after all those problematic countries would be bailed out even if they are not part of eurozone.After all,they giving them loan,not free money and i dont see any problem with it.

      Comment

      • seeandsee
        Check SIG!
        • Mar 2006
        • 50945

        #4
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        • MaDalton
          I am Amazing Content!
          • Feb 2004
          • 39861

          #5
          nope - won't happen - no need to explain - lol
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          • czarina
            Webmaster Extraordinaire
            • Jul 2002
            • 10752

            #6
            it'll make the dollar go up

            Comment

            • JFK
              FUBAR the ORIGINATOR
              • Jan 2002
              • 67373

              #7
              Originally posted by KlenTelaris
              Eurozone will never break up,after all those problematic countries would be bailed out even if they are not part of eurozone.After all,they giving them loan,not free money and i dont see any problem with it.
              LOAN ? it's a loan if you can make the payments, when they default in a couple of years down the road, it will be forgiven and all the countries doing the loaning will be fucked. This whole thing sounded great in theory, but in practice, it's a never ending money drain on the 'haves'

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              • u-Bob
                there's no $$$ in porn
                • Jul 2005
                • 33063

                #8
                Originally posted by KlenTelaris
                Eurozone will never break up,after all those problematic countries would be bailed out even if they are not part of eurozone.After all,they giving them loan,not free money and i dont see any problem with it.
                Let's not forget that by lending them money that didn't previously exist they are expanding the money supply and decreasing the value of our money. Let's also not forget that by lending out money at sub-market prices they are essentially encouraging more bad investments. Let's also not forget that the governments accepting the loans aren't the ones that will be held accountable if things go wrong (even though they are the ones who will be spending the money) and that those governments won't be the ones that will have to pay back those loans, but the people living in those countries.

                Comment

                • Paul Markham
                  Too old to care
                  • Jun 2001
                  • 52942

                  #9
                  If the Euro survives, which it probably will. The EU will bring in very strict laws on what a country can and can't do financially. Allowing countries to run up massive debts to others have to bail them out is suicide financially.



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                  Comment

                  • nolongerexists
                    Confirmed User
                    • Apr 2003
                    • 1096

                    #10
                    will happen, wait till shit hits the fan in major countries like spain or italy. that will be fun.
                    and webmasters should pray it happen for obvious reasons
                    Last edited by nolongerexists; 11-29-2010, 10:26 AM.
                    work smart not hard ;)

                    Comment

                    • Lilit
                      Confirmed User
                      • Mar 2007
                      • 1645

                      #11
                      I would say go ask Germany The country pays for eurozone's wealth so they will be the main decision makers I believe. A break up is the most pessimistic scenario but I think that stricter financial regulations would be the next step to make.
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                      • DWB
                        Registered User
                        • Jul 2003
                        • 31779

                        #12
                        At first I heard "Spain is too large to bail out" and now it is being considered. What's the deal with that?

                        Comment

                        • pornguy
                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                          • Mar 2003
                          • 62912

                          #13
                          I believe and see signs that the only way to have something like the Euro is to have it globally. that is the only way for it to work.
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                          • Hentaikid
                            Confirmed User
                            • Nov 2002
                            • 1250

                            #14
                            why can't they devalue the fucking euro is what I ask

                            Comment

                            • baddog
                              So Fucking Banned
                              • Apr 2001
                              • 107089

                              #15
                              From an outsider's perspective, the Euro amounted to welfare. You took countries like Germany and let them support the poorer countries. Just like we will never can welfare, they are pretty much stuck with the Euro.

                              Comment

                              • wehateporn
                                Promoting Debate on GFY
                                • Apr 2007
                                • 27176

                                #16
                                The bailouts are a method of entwining them all together forever; exactly as the Bankers planned

                                Comment

                                • Allison
                                  Confirmed User
                                  • Jul 2001
                                  • 2068

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by DirtyWhiteBoy

                                  I know pornographers know better than everyone else in the world, including the experts.
                                  Ahh my favorite quote of the day.
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                                  • Klen
                                    • Aug 2006
                                    • 32235

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by JFK
                                    LOAN ? it's a loan if you can make the payments, when they default in a couple of years down the road, it will be forgiven and all the countries doing the loaning will be fucked. This whole thing sounded great in theory, but in practice, it's a never ending money drain on the 'haves'
                                    Yes Loan,a bit different then classic bank loan taken by average joe,but that money must be returned.

                                    Comment

                                    • minicivan
                                      Confirmed User
                                      • Jun 2007
                                      • 943

                                      #19
                                      Obviously it can never work over the long term. Countries (all countries) can't manage their own domestic financial affairs, under the own laws and rules - they certainly can't do it in accordance to someone else's and aren't going to take a hit for the greater good of people that don't even like you. Inviting every gangster economy in Eastern Europe into the fold certainly isn't going to make anything better. Ultimately everyone will have to revert back to acting in their own interests, rather than the collective interests of the whole. I'm sure Germany will be among the first to break away from the Euro and then the EU. Why should the producers suffer for the non producers and the responsible suffer for the irresponsible and the productive suffer for the non productive?

                                      Comment

                                      • $5 submissions
                                        I help you SUCCEED
                                        • Nov 2003
                                        • 32195

                                        #20
                                        It's not a question of IF but WHEN. Ever since the Fall of the Roman Empire, various individuals and organizations have tried to cobble Europe back together. Always failed.

                                        Comment

                                        • Lilit
                                          Confirmed User
                                          • Mar 2007
                                          • 1645

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by baddog
                                          From an outsider's perspective, the Euro amounted to welfare. You took countries like Germany and let them support the poorer countries. Just like we will never can welfare, they are pretty much stuck with the Euro.
                                          On the one hand you're right, but on the other literally it's not the country that offers the welfare, it's german citizens and residents and many of them don't like the current situation. In this case Germany has to find balance between the amount of welfare it offers to other countries and keeping its own taxpayers happy.

                                          Right now economic activity in Germany is on a roll, but market economy has cycles...
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                                          • u-Bob
                                            there's no $$$ in porn
                                            • Jul 2005
                                            • 33063

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by KlenTelaris
                                            Yes Loan,a bit different then classic bank loan taken by average joe,but that money must be returned.
                                            http://www.gofuckyourself.com/showpo...78&postcount=8

                                            Comment

                                            • andrej_NDC
                                              Registered User
                                              • May 2004
                                              • 7760

                                              #23
                                              It can happen...but it can be also in 200 years...

                                              Comment

                                              • HomerSimpson
                                                Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                • Sep 2005
                                                • 13826

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by MaDalton
                                                nope - won't happen - no need to explain - lol


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                                                • Lilit
                                                  Confirmed User
                                                  • Mar 2007
                                                  • 1645

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by HomerSimpson
                                                  US(D) is something you should worry about...
                                                  USD is supported by China. No way China would let USD fail and harm its economy by losing their main trade partner.

                                                  Just look at the numbers:
                                                  http://www.uschina.org/statistics/tradetable.html

                                                  Not to mention that China is the main investor in US economy.

                                                  Thus in my opinion it's too early to speak about US(D) collapse because everyone realizes that it will be collapse of the entire world's financial system.
                                                  Nadya-EuroRevenue
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                                                  • Klen
                                                    • Aug 2006
                                                    • 32235

                                                    #26
                                                    Speaking about dropping value,i though euro will drop against all currencies,but seems it dropping only against dollar,while it grow against other europe currencies,and dollar also grow against those currencies as euro.

                                                    Comment

                                                    • _Richard_
                                                      Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                      • Oct 2006
                                                      • 30991

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by TopBucks Lilit
                                                      USD is supported by China. No way China would let USD fail and harm its economy by losing their main trade partner.

                                                      Just look at the numbers:
                                                      http://www.uschina.org/statistics/tradetable.html

                                                      Not to mention that China is the main investor in US economy.

                                                      Thus in my opinion it's too early to speak about US(D) collapse because everyone realizes that it will be collapse of the entire world's financial system.
                                                      i'm not so sure that china wouldn't let the US fail, money is money

                                                      Comment

                                                      • Lilit
                                                        Confirmed User
                                                        • Mar 2007
                                                        • 1645

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by _Richard_
                                                        i'm not so sure that china wouldn't let the US fail, money is money
                                                        correct, money is money, if China lets US fail it will lose money because:

                                                        1. US is the main importer for them
                                                        2. US economy collapse will lead to decreased or negative profit rates on Chinese investment projects.
                                                        3. US collapse will affect other US trade partners most of which trade with China as well.

                                                        All mentioned above will lead to trade and financial imbalance which will result in the entire economy imbalance and of course it will start the well known "snowball effect".
                                                        Last edited by Lilit; 11-29-2010, 02:29 PM.
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                                                        • roly
                                                          Confirmed User
                                                          • Aug 2002
                                                          • 1844

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Hentaikid
                                                          why can't they devalue the fucking euro is what I ask
                                                          that's the whole problem, europe has lots of different ecconomies and a once size fits all approach to interest rates etc, don't work.

                                                          Comment

                                                          • _Richard_
                                                            Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                            • Oct 2006
                                                            • 30991

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by TopBucks Lilit
                                                            correct, money is money, if China lets US fail it will lose money because:

                                                            1. US is the main importer for them
                                                            2. US economy collapse will lead to decreased or negative profit rates on Chinese investment projects.
                                                            3. US collapse will affect other US trade partners most of which trade with China as well.

                                                            All mentioned above will lead to trade and financial imbalance which will result in the entire economy imbalance and of course it will start the well known "snowball effect".
                                                            yea but china doesn't so much trade as just buy raw materials, manufacture, and then sell back to whoever is doing the 'trading'

                                                            whereas i agree with you that china would definitely feel an impact, what exactly would be bad for China? If the US went down, it would take us, europe, and most of the developing nations along with it (taking 'aid' from us), leaving a huge vacuum power to be filled by BRIC, but under this scenario, with no competition.

                                                            hell, you could even say china was planning to invade both SK and India, leaving china, russia and brazil, with no competition and no chance of anyone saying 'nay'

                                                            Comment

                                                            • Lilit
                                                              Confirmed User
                                                              • Mar 2007
                                                              • 1645

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by _Richard_
                                                              yea but china doesn't so much trade as just buy raw materials, manufacture, and then sell back to whoever is doing the 'trading'
                                                              you buy raw materials -> you produce stuff -> you export it to the US -> you get money

                                                              Take the 3rd out and there won't be the 4th.

                                                              USA is the largest market for China. It explains everything.
                                                              Last edited by Lilit; 11-29-2010, 03:15 PM.
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                                                              • fatfoo
                                                                ICQ:649699063
                                                                • Mar 2003
                                                                • 27763

                                                                #32
                                                                It is interesting whether the European union will break up or not. Country borders and unions are often changed, such as the collapse of USSR. It is also possible to see a new province created within a country, such as Nunavut in Canada.
                                                                Send me an email: [email protected]

                                                                Comment

                                                                • _Richard_
                                                                  Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                  • Oct 2006
                                                                  • 30991

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by TopBucks Lilit
                                                                  you buy raw materials -> you produce stuff -> you export it to the US -> you get money

                                                                  Take the 3rd out and there won't be the 4th.

                                                                  USA is the largest market for China. It explains everything.
                                                                  roger that.

                                                                  Comment

                                                                  • baddog
                                                                    So Fucking Banned
                                                                    • Apr 2001
                                                                    • 107089

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by TopBucks Lilit
                                                                    you buy raw materials -> you produce stuff -> you export it to the US -> you get money

                                                                    Take the 3rd out and there won't be the 4th.

                                                                    USA is the largest market for China. It explains everything.
                                                                    Pretty and smart.

                                                                    Comment

                                                                    • izzynew
                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                      • May 2009
                                                                      • 174

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by DirtyWhiteBoy
                                                                      At first I heard "Spain is too large to bail out" and now it is being considered. What's the deal with that?
                                                                      Spain is Europe's fourth largest economy and a bailout sum would be so huge, either there would not be enough funds for the bailout, or if there were, it could wipe out any funding left for other EU member states who may need it.

                                                                      However, it seems that funding from outside the EU, or directly from the IMF is being considered if Spain does need a bailout.
                                                                      The problem for both Spain and Portugal is that rumours that they will be next to fail have led to loss of confidence on the financial markets so it's a knock on effect.
                                                                      Until the Ireland bail out, Spain was looking like it would make it, but now they're back in the spotlight again, along with recent complants of 'enough is enough' from the German chancellor, which are not particularly confidence inspiring either.

                                                                      Comment

                                                                      • california
                                                                        Confirmed User
                                                                        • Mar 2008
                                                                        • 282

                                                                        #36
                                                                        For those that missed it:

                                                                        "China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday."

                                                                        http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2...t_11599087.htm
                                                                        See avatar

                                                                        Comment

                                                                        • Lilit
                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                          • Mar 2007
                                                                          • 1645

                                                                          #37
                                                                          Originally posted by california
                                                                          For those that missed it:

                                                                          "China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday."

                                                                          http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2...t_11599087.htm
                                                                          And how would you interpret it?
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                                                                          • _Richard_
                                                                            Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                            • Oct 2006
                                                                            • 30991

                                                                            #38
                                                                            Originally posted by california
                                                                            For those that missed it:

                                                                            "China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday."

                                                                            http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2...t_11599087.htm
                                                                            but that would never, ever, ever, happen.

                                                                            ...

                                                                            Comment

                                                                            • SZNY
                                                                              SZNY
                                                                              • May 2004
                                                                              • 2800

                                                                              #39
                                                                              Originally posted by _Richard_
                                                                              but that would never, ever, ever, happen.

                                                                              ...
                                                                              It is public announced, both Russia and China dropped the USD.
                                                                              What's next in the US, hyper inflation? Saw a documentary and that is kind of scary
                                                                              Telegram: sandroanthonio

                                                                              Comment

                                                                              • california
                                                                                Confirmed User
                                                                                • Mar 2008
                                                                                • 282

                                                                                #40
                                                                                Originally posted by TopBucks Lilit
                                                                                And how would you interpret it?
                                                                                not particularly good for the dollar. that said, i've been long dollar for a while
                                                                                See avatar

                                                                                Comment

                                                                                • jigg
                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                  • Feb 2002
                                                                                  • 2527

                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  the eurozone is done with, it's just a matter of time.
                                                                                  Citizens didn't want the constitution so it was forced on them via treaty. There's resentment across the spectrum at immigrants and other countries. Now you have bailing out, loans and what not... it's just a matter of time.

                                                                                  The citizens of wealthier countries will force their governments to leave eventually
                                                                                  ......
                                                                                  eight,eight,two,eight,eight,four,two
                                                                                  ......

                                                                                  Comment

                                                                                  • Bill8
                                                                                    Confirmed User
                                                                                    • Oct 2001
                                                                                    • 1901

                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    Krugman's article about ireland and his suggestion of a way the euro could fail was interesting.

                                                                                    http://www.truth-out.org/ireland-and...time-part65532

                                                                                    ... no European nation can even discuss leaving the euro because the anticipated devaluation will lead people to move deposits to other euro-zone banks, leading to the mother of all bank runs. But I?ve been reconsidering this stance, because while the Eichengreen argument explains why nations should not plan on leaving the euro, what if the bank runs and financial crisis happen anyway? In that case, the marginal cost of a nation?s leaving the euro falls dramatically, and in fact, the decision may effectively be taken out of policy makers? hands.

                                                                                    On Nov. 17, the Financial Times reported that the Bank of Ireland admitted it has lost 10 billion euros in corporate deposits since September. Another bank, Irish Life & Permanent, reported an 11 percent drop in customer deposits in August and September. Hank Calenti, a credit analyst at Société Générale, a major European financial services firm, told the Financial Times: ?You don?t see people queueing around the block, but it seems there?s a silent run on corporate deposits.?

                                                                                    Recently I came to a realization about the true nature of Ireland?s big mistake: It should have been Texas. Think about it. The United States?s savings-and-loan crisis of the 1980s and 1990s was about runaway banks. Loose regulations led to risky investments on the part of hundreds of savings and loan institutions, and then they had to be bailed out at (tremendous) taxpayer expense. And as best I can determine, about half the cost to taxpayers came from just one state ? Texas. Yet the burden was borne nationally.

                                                                                    But, unlike Texas, Ireland bailed out its own banks in 2009. If the European Union had taken over responsibility for the runaway Irish banks that fueled the nation?s devastating housing bubble, the situation would be much less serious. The Irish just picked the wrong continent on which to engage in crony capitalism.

                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                    • _Richard_
                                                                                      Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                      • Oct 2006
                                                                                      • 30991

                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      Originally posted by SZNY
                                                                                      It is public announced, both Russia and China dropped the USD.
                                                                                      What's next in the US, hyper inflation? Saw a documentary and that is kind of scary
                                                                                      sorry, those three dots i typed drip with sarcasm

                                                                                      Comment

                                                                                      • SZNY
                                                                                        SZNY
                                                                                        • May 2004
                                                                                        • 2800

                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        Originally posted by _Richard_
                                                                                        sorry, those three dots i typed drip with sarcasm
                                                                                        Let's hope for positive things
                                                                                        Telegram: sandroanthonio

                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                        • Lilit
                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                          • Mar 2007
                                                                                          • 1645

                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          Originally posted by SZNY
                                                                                          It is public announced, both Russia and China dropped the USD.
                                                                                          What's next in the US, hyper inflation? Saw a documentary and that is kind of scary

                                                                                          Sandro, look at the numbers first... All this buzz is more around the parties involved, that's it. The whole deal has very little impact on dollar because Russia and China don't do much bilateral trade. For example for China it's only 2% of its total trade with the world, for Russia - about 8%. So I'd say the whole deal will have more political impact rather than economic.

                                                                                          Plus, actually, now I'm thinking that the US even might be wanting this deal, because Federal Reserve System wanted to devalue USD a little while China needed to revalue yuan. This strategy was discussed by US and China a month or so ago. So literally the deal serves the needs of all 3 countries - USA, China and Russia. You never know the reality behind the facts shown in mass-media... So who knows...
                                                                                          Last edited by Lilit; 12-01-2010, 04:24 AM.
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                                                                                          • CaptainHowdy
                                                                                            Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                            • Dec 2004
                                                                                            • 94727

                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            That is completely thinkable btw...

                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                            • SZNY
                                                                                              SZNY
                                                                                              • May 2004
                                                                                              • 2800

                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              Originally posted by TopBucks Lilit
                                                                                              Sandro, look at the numbers first... All this buzz is more around the parties involved, that's it. The whole deal has very little impact on dollar because Russia and China don't do much bilateral trade. For example for China it's only 2% of its total trade with the world, for Russia - about 8%. So I'd say the whole deal will have more political impact rather than economic.
                                                                                              It's 100% a political issue, both Russia as China are complaining for some time that their currencies are undervalued.
                                                                                              Telegram: sandroanthonio

                                                                                              Comment

                                                                                              • rogueteens
                                                                                                So fucking bland
                                                                                                • Jul 2006
                                                                                                • 8005

                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                i hope it breaks up, the big three are the only countries holding it together cash wise and are being taken for a ride by the other countries. Also this free cross-border policy have really helped to destroy local commerce, why bother having a company now in the UK/France/Germany if some eastern european will come along and do the job for half the price.
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                                                                                                • Klen
                                                                                                  • Aug 2006
                                                                                                  • 32235

                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  Originally posted by rogueteens
                                                                                                  i hope it breaks up, the big three are the only countries holding it together cash wise and are being taken for a ride by the other countries. Also this free cross-border policy have really helped to destroy local commerce, why bother having a company now in the UK/France/Germany if some eastern european will come along and do the job for half the price.
                                                                                                  I had to laugh on this one,i just had

                                                                                                  Comment

                                                                                                  • rogueteens
                                                                                                    So fucking bland
                                                                                                    • Jul 2006
                                                                                                    • 8005

                                                                                                    #50
                                                                                                    Originally posted by KlenTelaris
                                                                                                    I had to laugh on this one,i just had
                                                                                                    why? are you from eastern europe?
                                                                                                    To have a free boarder and one currency across so many countries means that for many of the worse off countries, their standard of living will rise but it also means that the standard of living in the top of the first world countries has to drop to make an average across the range.
                                                                                                    or are you laughing at the eastern europeans undercutting jobs? its a fact that it happens thats why international buisnesses are shipping in the cheap labour at the expence of the local workforce, cheap labour means lower wages which means less spent in the local economy which means less manufactoring/retail sales which means a local economic depression - This has no benefit to the more "advanced" countries. it only benefits international buisness.
                                                                                                    Or maybe you found the fact that its only the "big three" that put in much more cash than they take out funny, they are paying for the other countries?
                                                                                                    Last edited by rogueteens; 12-01-2010, 07:04 AM.
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