Analysis: Thinking the unthinkable -- a euro zone breakup

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  • Lilit
    Confirmed User
    • Mar 2007
    • 1645

    #31
    Originally posted by _Richard_
    yea but china doesn't so much trade as just buy raw materials, manufacture, and then sell back to whoever is doing the 'trading'
    you buy raw materials -> you produce stuff -> you export it to the US -> you get money

    Take the 3rd out and there won't be the 4th.

    USA is the largest market for China. It explains everything.
    Last edited by Lilit; 11-29-2010, 03:15 PM.
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    • fatfoo
      ICQ:649699063
      • Mar 2003
      • 27763

      #32
      It is interesting whether the European union will break up or not. Country borders and unions are often changed, such as the collapse of USSR. It is also possible to see a new province created within a country, such as Nunavut in Canada.
      Send me an email: [email protected]

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      • _Richard_
        Too lazy to set a custom title
        • Oct 2006
        • 30991

        #33
        Originally posted by TopBucks Lilit
        you buy raw materials -> you produce stuff -> you export it to the US -> you get money

        Take the 3rd out and there won't be the 4th.

        USA is the largest market for China. It explains everything.
        roger that.

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        • baddog
          So Fucking Banned
          • Apr 2001
          • 107089

          #34
          Originally posted by TopBucks Lilit
          you buy raw materials -> you produce stuff -> you export it to the US -> you get money

          Take the 3rd out and there won't be the 4th.

          USA is the largest market for China. It explains everything.
          Pretty and smart.

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          • izzynew
            Confirmed User
            • May 2009
            • 174

            #35
            Originally posted by DirtyWhiteBoy
            At first I heard "Spain is too large to bail out" and now it is being considered. What's the deal with that?
            Spain is Europe's fourth largest economy and a bailout sum would be so huge, either there would not be enough funds for the bailout, or if there were, it could wipe out any funding left for other EU member states who may need it.

            However, it seems that funding from outside the EU, or directly from the IMF is being considered if Spain does need a bailout.
            The problem for both Spain and Portugal is that rumours that they will be next to fail have led to loss of confidence on the financial markets so it's a knock on effect.
            Until the Ireland bail out, Spain was looking like it would make it, but now they're back in the spotlight again, along with recent complants of 'enough is enough' from the German chancellor, which are not particularly confidence inspiring either.

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            • california
              Confirmed User
              • Mar 2008
              • 282

              #36
              For those that missed it:

              "China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday."

              http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2...t_11599087.htm
              See avatar

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              • Lilit
                Confirmed User
                • Mar 2007
                • 1645

                #37
                Originally posted by california
                For those that missed it:

                "China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday."

                http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2...t_11599087.htm
                And how would you interpret it?
                Nadya-EuroRevenue
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                • _Richard_
                  Too lazy to set a custom title
                  • Oct 2006
                  • 30991

                  #38
                  Originally posted by california
                  For those that missed it:

                  "China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday."

                  http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2...t_11599087.htm
                  but that would never, ever, ever, happen.

                  ...

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                  • SZNY
                    SZNY
                    • May 2004
                    • 2800

                    #39
                    Originally posted by _Richard_
                    but that would never, ever, ever, happen.

                    ...
                    It is public announced, both Russia and China dropped the USD.
                    What's next in the US, hyper inflation? Saw a documentary and that is kind of scary
                    Telegram: sandroanthonio

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                    • california
                      Confirmed User
                      • Mar 2008
                      • 282

                      #40
                      Originally posted by TopBucks Lilit
                      And how would you interpret it?
                      not particularly good for the dollar. that said, i've been long dollar for a while
                      See avatar

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                      • jigg
                        Confirmed User
                        • Feb 2002
                        • 2527

                        #41
                        the eurozone is done with, it's just a matter of time.
                        Citizens didn't want the constitution so it was forced on them via treaty. There's resentment across the spectrum at immigrants and other countries. Now you have bailing out, loans and what not... it's just a matter of time.

                        The citizens of wealthier countries will force their governments to leave eventually
                        ......
                        eight,eight,two,eight,eight,four,two
                        ......

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                        • Bill8
                          Confirmed User
                          • Oct 2001
                          • 1901

                          #42
                          Krugman's article about ireland and his suggestion of a way the euro could fail was interesting.

                          http://www.truth-out.org/ireland-and...time-part65532

                          ... no European nation can even discuss leaving the euro because the anticipated devaluation will lead people to move deposits to other euro-zone banks, leading to the mother of all bank runs. But I?ve been reconsidering this stance, because while the Eichengreen argument explains why nations should not plan on leaving the euro, what if the bank runs and financial crisis happen anyway? In that case, the marginal cost of a nation?s leaving the euro falls dramatically, and in fact, the decision may effectively be taken out of policy makers? hands.

                          On Nov. 17, the Financial Times reported that the Bank of Ireland admitted it has lost 10 billion euros in corporate deposits since September. Another bank, Irish Life & Permanent, reported an 11 percent drop in customer deposits in August and September. Hank Calenti, a credit analyst at Société Générale, a major European financial services firm, told the Financial Times: ?You don?t see people queueing around the block, but it seems there?s a silent run on corporate deposits.?

                          Recently I came to a realization about the true nature of Ireland?s big mistake: It should have been Texas. Think about it. The United States?s savings-and-loan crisis of the 1980s and 1990s was about runaway banks. Loose regulations led to risky investments on the part of hundreds of savings and loan institutions, and then they had to be bailed out at (tremendous) taxpayer expense. And as best I can determine, about half the cost to taxpayers came from just one state ? Texas. Yet the burden was borne nationally.

                          But, unlike Texas, Ireland bailed out its own banks in 2009. If the European Union had taken over responsibility for the runaway Irish banks that fueled the nation?s devastating housing bubble, the situation would be much less serious. The Irish just picked the wrong continent on which to engage in crony capitalism.

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                          • _Richard_
                            Too lazy to set a custom title
                            • Oct 2006
                            • 30991

                            #43
                            Originally posted by SZNY
                            It is public announced, both Russia and China dropped the USD.
                            What's next in the US, hyper inflation? Saw a documentary and that is kind of scary
                            sorry, those three dots i typed drip with sarcasm

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                            • SZNY
                              SZNY
                              • May 2004
                              • 2800

                              #44
                              Originally posted by _Richard_
                              sorry, those three dots i typed drip with sarcasm
                              Let's hope for positive things
                              Telegram: sandroanthonio

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                              • Lilit
                                Confirmed User
                                • Mar 2007
                                • 1645

                                #45
                                Originally posted by SZNY
                                It is public announced, both Russia and China dropped the USD.
                                What's next in the US, hyper inflation? Saw a documentary and that is kind of scary

                                Sandro, look at the numbers first... All this buzz is more around the parties involved, that's it. The whole deal has very little impact on dollar because Russia and China don't do much bilateral trade. For example for China it's only 2% of its total trade with the world, for Russia - about 8%. So I'd say the whole deal will have more political impact rather than economic.

                                Plus, actually, now I'm thinking that the US even might be wanting this deal, because Federal Reserve System wanted to devalue USD a little while China needed to revalue yuan. This strategy was discussed by US and China a month or so ago. So literally the deal serves the needs of all 3 countries - USA, China and Russia. You never know the reality behind the facts shown in mass-media... So who knows...
                                Last edited by Lilit; 12-01-2010, 04:24 AM.
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