Adult Conversion Ratios, 2000 - 2020 - GoFuckYourself.com - Adult Webmaster Forum

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signupdamnit

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#1

Adult Conversion Ratios, 2000 - 2020

10-17-2010, 07:49 AM

- Assuming +25% per year (which seems about right)
- General Adult Traffic (Niched traffic will be about 50% - 80% of these ratios)
- Raw clicks to sponsors

2000- 1:200
2001- 1:250
2002- 1:313
2003- 1:391
2004- 1:488
2005- 1:610
2006- 1:763
2007- 1:954
2008- 1:1,192
2009- 1:1,490
2010- 1:1,863
2011- 1:2,328
2012- 1:2,910
2013- 1:3,638
2014- 1:4,547
2015- 1:5,684
2016- 1:7,105
2017- 1:8,882
2018- 1:11,102
2019- 1:13,878
2020- 1:17,347

Doesn't look like it's that much off based on past data and seems realistic for future data.

Thoughts?

Last edited by signupdamnit; 10-17-2010, 07:55 AM.

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anexsia

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#2

10-17-2010, 07:52 AM

And where are these statistics coming from? I'm getting mostly 1:400-1:650 nowadays.
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signupdamnit

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10-17-2010, 07:54 AM

Originally posted by anexsia

And where are these statistics coming from? I'm getting mostly 1:400-1:650 nowadays.

Experience. I should mention these are raws. It's going to vary (see the part about general traffic and niche rates). I'm at about 1:1400 overall but I do a lot of niche stuff.

You are doing very well. What were your ratios in 2000?

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woj

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#4

10-17-2010, 08:21 AM

dude, you made those statistics up...
how do you figure 25? why not 35% or 50%?

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quiet

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#5

10-17-2010, 08:23 AM

lol there will be no affilates by 2020. none.

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signupdamnit

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#6

10-17-2010, 08:29 AM

Using the previous ratio figures, here is the total traffic you would need to send to sponsors to make the same amount of money.

(1,000 raws / day is the baseline in 2000.)

2000- 1,000
2001- 1,250
2002- 1,562
2003- 1,953
2004- 2,441
2005- 3,052
2006- 3,814
2007- 4,768
2008- 5,960
2009- 7,450
2010- 9,313
2011- 11,642
2012- 14,552
2013- 18,190
2014- 22,737
2015- 28,422
2016- 35,527
2017- 44,409
2018- 55,511
2019- 69,389
2020- 86,736

Today you need 931% more traffic than you did in 2000.

In 2015 you will need 2,842% (this is correct there is no error) more traffic to make the same as you did in 2000 from the pay site model.

edited it to simplify it.

Last edited by signupdamnit; 10-17-2010, 08:34 AM.

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signupdamnit

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#7

10-17-2010, 08:32 AM

Originally posted by woj

dude, you made those statistics up...
how do you figure 25? why not 35% or 50%?

Because 25% seemed accurate at most historical points. If you were in business in 2000 you probably recall ratios somewhere around 1:200. Compare to today. It obviously isn't perfect but seems like a nice ballpark estimate.

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signupdamnit

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#8

10-17-2010, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by quiet

lol there will be no affilates by 2020. none.

Probably not that many pay sites either. And a ripple effect on supporting services such as hosting, design, traffic sales, and scripting as well. There will still be money to be made but not near as much and margins will decrease. That's the effect as the product itself becomes radically devalued.

It appears even if one group were to take over the entire online adult market completely in 2020 they will still not make near as much that year as they could have made in 2000 with only 33% of the market. Amazing.

Last edited by signupdamnit; 10-17-2010, 08:54 AM.

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Rankings

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#9

10-17-2010, 08:51 AM

and thats why we stick with SE traffic for the majority

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#10

10-17-2010, 08:54 AM

people live in the adult bubble too much. affiliate and internet marketing is alive and well outside of it ...
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signupdamnit

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#11

10-17-2010, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by 2bet

and thats why we stick with SE traffic for the majority

I don't think that'll save you though. So maybe your ratios will be 33% (1/3rd) of these if you're lucky. That's still pretty bad. There doesn't seem to be any escape from the devaluation of the product itself besides either selling another product or raising enough traffic to overshadow the devaluation. But raising more traffic will become harder and harder because you'll need 25% of a greater number each year or you'll slip down. And everyone else is going to be desperate to do the same.

Originally posted by Agent 488

people live in the adult bubble too much. affiliate and internet marketing is alive and well outside of it ...

I agree with you. I don't see any escape from this for most people unless something radically changes to get conversion ratios to improve.

Last edited by signupdamnit; 10-17-2010, 09:04 AM.

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#12

10-17-2010, 09:19 AM

Originally posted by signupdamnit

Using the previous ratio figures, here is the total traffic you would need to send to sponsors to make the same amount of money.

(1,000 raws / day is the baseline in 2000.)

2000- 1,000
2001- 1,250
2002- 1,562
2003- 1,953
2004- 2,441
2005- 3,052
2006- 3,814
2007- 4,768
2008- 5,960
2009- 7,450
2010- 9,313
2011- 11,642
2012- 14,552
2013- 18,190
2014- 22,737
2015- 28,422
2016- 35,527
2017- 44,409
2018- 55,511
2019- 69,389
2020- 86,736

Today you need 931% more traffic than you did in 2000.

In 2015 you will need 2,842% (this is correct there is no error) more traffic to make the same as you did in 2000 from the pay site model.

edited it to simplify it.

This is like using estibot to valu your domain and site....

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#13

10-17-2010, 09:35 AM

please do you have some stats from 2810?

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pornmasta

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#14

10-17-2010, 09:42 AM

Originally posted by signupdamnit

2000- 1:200
2010- 1:1,863
2020- 1:17,347

no
Also your ratio is in function of your sponsor.
New stuff= better
old stuff = worse
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mineistaken

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#15

10-17-2010, 09:49 AM

No sense to asume that ratios will grow by the same speed as till now, first because we had the huge influx of free porn which increased the ratios. I don't think we will see such free porn influx in the future, because its already 100% freely available.
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